Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UBI payments kept people out of poverty and we need another one and Congress is passing a non Stimulus bill dealing with Health Reform

Also,we need immigration reform and the Border crisis is out of control, some believe that immigrants are carriers of Covid which they are, that's why Ds arent gonna win TX or FL Gov or Sen

But, we have a chance in open seats OH and NC Sen

But, D's all they need is secure the 304 Blue wall D's are tied or leading in NV, CO, AZ, WI, MI, PA, GA all except NH and just like that NV poll showed Laxalt leading by 10 and showed Sununu leading by 9, Sununu isn't winning by 9 pts, it takes 270 to win Prez and based on 2024 Sen map Biden is assured that

But, the H is tricky due to Rs need only 5 seats D's are Vulnerable in TX and F Land CA will give us 4 seats back and NY and IL will Redistrict Rs out as well

There are 5 vulnerable D's in TX

Also, Biden bragged he was better than Warren and Bernie and Harris in primary, since he been Prez everything has been partisan and he opposes getting rid of Filibuster and Sinema went on View and said that she will never ever, as long as she is a tiebreaker voter, will getting rid of Fillibuster if we win 54/46 Seats we keep the H and get Statehood, Ryan said he supports Statehood, and he is tied in a poll against MANDEL

Beasley, Jackson, Ryan always had a better chance than FL and IA due to open seats, they will perform better than Biden did in state

Cunningham lost due sex scandal

Biden in Non Rassy and QU poppls, except for 2020, QU has a conservative bias like Rassy Biden is at 50/48 and 53(47 RV

Biden only has to be at 50% on election day

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1246 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 49 (+3)

Strongly approve 16 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 37 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+3)

Strongly approve 19 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You Gov is online polls, Biden isn't at 40% Approval

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Rmg

Approve; 45%
Disapprove; 48%

Global research group;

Approve; 46%
Disapprove; 51%

[pbrower2a]

What’s the matter with this country?

We finally get a leader who isn’t a total nutjob after 4 years of lunacy and he’s underwater in approval.

About 46% of Americans are perfectly happy with a complete nutcase as President. Look at how media have prepared people with confrontational "talk" shows in which people win points for belligerence. Who is more rhetorically belligerent than Donald Trump? He reminds me of the sort of person who would throw a chair on the Jerry Springer Show.  People actually watch that stuff. People also fall for televangelists who divide the world into the Saved (people like them) and the Damned (anyone who disagrees). And then look at some of the nutcases we have as Senators and Congress-critters.

Texas pols have all but banned abortion in the state and have sought to entrench their power by making voting more difficult for minorities and poor people. So defeat the feminists, conservationists, and liberals once and for all, much as did the KKK in the end in The Birth of a Nation. Yes, show the politically-defeated who is boss with the intent of rubbing it in and exploiting it more every chance.  

As for Texas -- part of the confrontational style of politics is to do everything to suggest to the Other Side is to break their hope. Break the hope of the Other Side and you have a regime (or at the least a political machine) that entrenches itself to the extent that the Other Side is completely irrelevant except as victims to suffer for the Elites -- like monopolist gougers little better than racketeers of the era of Al Capone and Lepke Buchalter. Worse, perhaps, because in the plutocratic nightmare the people getting killed by violence or hunger will have done nothing to deserve such. (I recall a column by the late great columnist Mike Royko, who compared Filipino dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Chicago-area thugs largely killed each other, but Marcos killed anybody of principle who got in his way.

Trumpism is not dead. It will survive him, and it may become more sophisticated and crushing in its techniques. It can morph into an ideology in which one's boss has the powers of a feudal lord over one. You will even vote as your boss tells you or give him your ballot as a proxy.

[GP270watch]

 Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

His budget is being obstructed in Congress and he hasn't invited Rs to WH except during infrastructure leaving them out of process

What did Obama do during the 2011 Debt Ceiling crisis he invited Speaker Boehner and negotiated budget caps

Naturally Rs aren't gonna help raise the DEBT CEILING, but Collins should not be Obstructing, especially on VR, she is gonna lose to Jared Golden in 2026
I'm once a deal is reached on budget crisis his polls will go up, they have until Friday for Shutdown and Oct 18th, if D's have to they will go thru a 2 wk process of raising Debt Ceiling in Reconciliation, but Clyburn said on Constitutional issues get rid of Filibuster

At worse, the Debt Ceiling is raised on Oct 31st right before Nov checks, but probably a couple days before it takes a long time for Amendment to be passed via Reconciliation

[pbrower2a]

The Republicans might be perfectly happy with privatization on the cheap. You know how that goes -- forward funds for turning the freeways into toll roads run by monopolistic gougers.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Selzer doesn't look as such an outlier anymore, does it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Republicans might be perfectly happy with privatization on the cheap. You know how that goes -- forward funds for turning the freeways into toll roads run by monopolistic gougers.  

If D's don't pass the full package it can be added to next yr , should they win the Trifecta, which they're gonna do anyways Bernie said should Ds get 54(/46 Senate WI, PA, OH, NC, he is going for the full 6T

54 votes eliminates the Filibuster bypassing Tester, Sinema and Manchin and Tester haven't fully endorsed the Elimination of Filibuster,, he is a blue dog too, so it's imperative we get 54 votes and Beasley says she supports Fillibuster but Ryan says to End it

Ryan is tied in OH but Gov race is Safe R, and who knows about NC, outside chance FL too

[HisGrace]

About 46% of Americans are perfectly happy with a complete nutcase as President. 

That still leaves an additional 10% of people who do not approve of Biden, either being actively disapproving or unsure. You can't blame his decline on Trump supporters, if they were the only ones opposed he'd still be up in the mid 50's.

[jd7171]

What’s the matter with this country?

We finally get a leader who isn’t a total nutjob after 4 years of lunacy and he’s underwater in approval.

As someone who is a moderate, here is my opinion, Biden is suffering from setbacks. His agenda is stalled and isn't accomplishing things. The border is a mess and inflation is a problem. Supply problems are occurring due to not enough people filling jobs. Plus you have Afghanistan and that fallout from it. I'm not blaming him for everything at all, but he ran on being competent and having a cabinet that would be prepared. But these last few months haven't shown that. But the good news is that there is still time to fix things.

Biden is vulnerable to losing to the GOP on 2024. But they seem to insist on nominating Trump which would equal a Biden win. As long as Trump continues to turn the GOP into a conspiracy party, they will keep losing voters such as myself. College Educated voters, he will make this election all about 2020 and people will be sick of hearing about how the election being rigged with no proof.

Rightly or wrongly though, I think it's unfair to say "oh he ran on competency and now it's not that." Even with those most competent people in charge, things can - and will - still go wrong. People still make mistakes. So you can argue a few different things that have happened, but I don't get the "competency" argument. Being competent doesn't shield you from mistakes. Not to mention, a lot of what's happening is out of his hands (inflation, people not getting vaccines, etc.).

I think the issue is that with the mistakes that have happened they haven't gone enough on the offensive to try and change the narrative. I also think the competent part has to deal with people having too high of expectations, almost like during Obama's first term. That Biden would wave a magic wand and everything gets fixed. The important thing is he has time on his side.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

The thing is that Biden should know better after being Obama’s Vice President for eight years.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

The thing is that Biden should know better after being Obama’s Vice President for eight years.

I think he does. Obama would have gleefully gone along with Sinemanchin and complained about everyone not taking the win.

Biden understands that rewarding senators for betraying him is just going to kill is presidency.

BIF+Reconciliation and his numbers shoot back up, BIF and he's already a lame duck.

[wbrocks67]

Selzer doesn't look as such an outlier anymore, does it?

Yes it does. Even if Biden is down 4 or 5 nationally, that still doesn't point to a -31 in Iowa. Iowa was about 12% to the right of the nation in 2020, so even if you threw in a couple points, that would still only lead to a max of maybe -20 for Biden in IA.

[pbrower2a]

Challengers -- even Mitt Romney -- are vulnerable to negative ads. Those can be over things not related to the Presidency, like mass firings as an owner of an enterprise. Even putting a dog in an animal crate on the roof of a car for a long trip was a viral story that ended up hurting the Romney campaign:



Incumbents typically create and maintain the narrative, which makes them difficult to defeat unless the public has tired of them (the elder Bush.. well it was twelve years instead of eight years of basically the same policies) or either the economy or foreign policy (such as a war going badly) is a mess (Hoover 1932, Carter 1980). To this one could include Presidents not choosing to run for a term for which they were eligible (Truman 1952, Johnson 1968). Ford had never been elected Vice-President, so in 1976 he was running for his first electoral term and demonstrated the usual weaknesses of a Presidential nominee who had never been elected to any statewide office,

OK... Trump? He got elected in 2016 by winning the right votes  instead of winning the popular vote, and he proved extremely erratic as President... he did end up winning more popular votes in 2020 than in 2016, but largely because he won votes that would never swing a state. He did not win people over from the Other Side of the political spectrum. In a country as polarized as America is, demographics decide elections, and demographics hurt Trump in 2020 because Trump's constituency was more likely to die of cancer, strokes, and heart attacks related to age.

The retreat from Afghanistan is a political disaster, and President Biden is around when it happened. But this involves a treaty by the prior President, and the current one is stuck with it.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Selzer doesn't look as such an outlier anymore, does it?

Yes it does. Even if Biden is down 4 or 5 nationally, that still doesn't point to a -31 in Iowa. Iowa was about 12% to the right of the nation in 2020, so even if you threw in a couple points, that would still only lead to a max of maybe -20 for Biden in IA.

Even if?


State polls >>> national polls.

Selzer doesn't seems like such an outlier, given polls from Qunnipiac (TX and FL?) and High point (NC). That's, what I meant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning? Some of these numbers of stunning.

D's are tied or leading in every 304 blue wall state AZ, CO, MI, PA, VA , NH, NV and WI, Sen and Gov races BIDEN DOESN'T JAVE TO BE AT 50% ALL THE TIME, except on Election night. RS HAVEN'T CRACKED THE 278BLUE WALL SINCE BENGHAZI HILLARY AND WE DONT NEED THE SOUTH, YOU REASON THINK INSURRECTIONISTS TRUMP IS GONNA WIN. The only reason Trump won Gary Johnson took 50K votes from Hillary in MI, WI and PA, we have won them in 2018/2020

Biden doesn't campaign til Aug 2022 Midterms and 1500 days til Prez election

[BigSerg]

The people are opening their eyes, the people do not want a senile lunatic in the White House!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

[Gass3268]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

[BigSerg]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

D + 8

[Gass3268]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

D + 8

The Republican Party is a disaster, I know.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some better news for Biden from a good pollster:

Marist, Sep. 20-26, 1220 adults including 1029 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 17 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-4)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)