Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

First poll of Wisconsin from this source, according to my recollection,  since the 2020 election.



This was pbower2A Approvals in NC, Strong D, No More

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

So much for Cheri Beasley

[GeneralMacArthur]

It'll go back up.

It seems like the media is going to win this round by just constantly talking about Afghanistan like it's still 10 AM Monday morning and completely ignoring everything the Biden administration has done since then or the current situation on the ground.  And America's great collection of dupes is going to just lap it up uncritically.

This is leading a lot of Democrats to turn on Biden.  When I look at Twitter, a lot of my left-leaning follows are trashing Biden.  The polling shows that both Democrats and Republicans are unsure what their positions are supposed to be -- do we support getting out of Afghanistan or not?  But the media has given everyone a clear vector to attack Biden: it could have been done better!

The thing is, everyone will forget about this in a couple weeks.  All the Americans are going to come home safe and sound.  The administration will do the best it can to get all the SIVs out who want to leave.  We'll probably be faced with lots of images of horror and tragedy in Afghanistan, but the administration can ask one simple question:  Do you want to re-invade Afghanistan and pick up where we left off?  I think for most people the answer is no.  Republicans will also probably raise a stink about the number of refugees Biden is bringing into America, allowing him to get on the right side of that issue.

But either way it's good that this is happening in August 2021 and not October 2024.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

Even on a bad day, there is no way that Biden is -11 in a state he lost by 1.

[pbrower2a]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

The awkward end to American involvement in Afghanistan is causing President Biden's net approval to take some lumps.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Mr.Phips]

It'll go back up.

It seems like the media is going to win this round by just constantly talking about Afghanistan like it's still 10 AM Monday morning and completely ignoring everything the Biden administration has done since then or the current situation on the ground.  And America's great collection of dupes is going to just lap it up uncritically.

This is leading a lot of Democrats to turn on Biden.  When I look at Twitter, a lot of my left-leaning follows are trashing Biden.  The polling shows that both Democrats and Republicans are unsure what their positions are supposed to be -- do we support getting out of Afghanistan or not?  But the media has given everyone a clear vector to attack Biden: it could have been done better!

The thing is, everyone will forget about this in a couple weeks.  All the Americans are going to come home safe and sound.  The administration will do the best it can to get all the SIVs out who want to leave.  We'll probably be faced with lots of images of horror and tragedy in Afghanistan, but the administration can ask one simple question:  Do you want to re-invade Afghanistan and pick up where we left off?  I think for most people the answer is no.  Republicans will also probably raise a stink about the number of refugees Biden is bringing into America, allowing him to get on the right side of that issue.

But either way it's good that this is happening in August 2021 and not October 2024.

October 2022 is far more important than October 2024.  Democrats cannot afford another midterm wipeout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

The awkward end to American involvement in Afghanistan is causing President Biden's net approval to take some lumps.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

Nate Silver said D's are underdogs in OH, NC and FL Sen, but a 220/215 H either way and a D S 52/48 and winning AZ, KS, MD, MA and NH Govs are the likely scenario I. A Neutral Environment


It's gonna be very difficult for D's to get 55 Senate seats, especially while Biden is at 47% Approvala

[Bootes Void]

Seems like the media really did some damage

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

News lag, polls lag more and poll aggregate (esp 538 that gives pretty much weight to older polls) lags even more. Yet to see the impact of Afghanistan debacle.


Also, if I recall it correctly (I was busy and didn't actually followed the news carefully) the big things started to reported ~10th August, and you could hear about it from every TV news ~13th August. As I said, I'm not sure.  If you look at 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
his approval was already going down at late July/early August. Like it was +10% during the summer, +7 at start of August and +5 now.

On other hands, there have mostly been polls from muh pollsters so far.


Will it be forgotten in 2 weeks? Well, this one has more substance the Benghazi hearing LMAO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it's a 220/215 H D and 52/48 D Senate and we don't win NC, OH and FL which we're not, there is more than one way to have wave insurance for 2024 that pbower2A doesn't realize, it's call DC Statehood, Tester is much more likely to pass DC Statehood in a D Lead Senate than Manchin whom said DC Statehood should be a Constitutional Amendment

There are always two ways to solve a problem


Lol it's been a 304 map since Election night, by Nate Silver, Biden for a temp bump from handing out 1400 checks, and there aren't anymore of those coming

[Storr]

https://www.twitter.com/OneNationCon/status/1428421471211335683
Civitas overestimated Roy Cooper by 5 points in 2020, and also had Biden and Cheatin’ Cal narrowly winning my state.

Either way, if this poll is even remotely accurate this time, this isn’t golly news for Biden whatsoever.

The awkward end to American involvement in Afghanistan is causing President Biden's net approval to take some lumps.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

I wouldn't be surprised if the Afghanistan pullout fiasco hurt Biden more than in most states due to the heavy military presence located in North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is gonna hurt Biden in NC, to there hasn't been one GE poll in the Senate and he assumes that D are gonna win NC, just like last time

[Old Man Willow]

Biden finally starts doing good things and his approval tanks. Joke country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know that I am the last person who should be reassuring anyone, but when the media cycle shifts away enough from Afghanistan, Biden's approvals should too back to where they were. Especially if/when he finally signs the infrastructure bill. Americans' short-term memories don't just benefit Republicans, you know?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden finally starts doing good things and his approval tanks. Joke country.

How is Biden doing good things and the ICUs are at Full Capacity like under Trump, he said shots in arms and 14oo checks would eradicate Covid and the Taliban are back in control

[GP270watch]

Biden needs to shift the focus to domestic policy and solving domestic problems. The bipartisan infrastructure bill is not it either, it falls way short. He needs the reconciliation budget passed, Medicare expansion, marijuana legalization, path to citizenship for Dreamers, student debt cancellation, and no more dumb wars.

[DS0816]

Biden needs to shift the focus to domestic policy and solving domestic problems. …

The topic thread “Biden ends Unemployment extension Act Sept 6th” lets us know one more reason why Joe Biden and his administration are going to make the Democrats, at the least, lose the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022. It will be earned.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't get me wrong Nate Silver says it's a 304 map unless something dramatically changes since Election night that's why Ds are gonna sweep 2021 races, it's not a 268 map where the WI Sen thread is ridiculous, users overly predict R chances in WI , by God

The H can go either way 220/215 and 52)48 Senate and Tester casting tie breaker for DC Statehood

Tester is a blue dog and there are two ways to get wave insurance for 2024 win the TRIFECTA narrowly and DC Statehood or win OH, NC, IA and FL Sen races, but Aghanistam has hurt D's in wave insurance states before GE polls are released in all excceot FL


Nate Silver says Vet Josh Mandel and Pat McCrory are emboldened by poorly planned withrawl of Troops in Afghanistan and Marines are alums of Ohio state where Justin Fields played

Our Sen map in OH, MT, AZ and OH is tough in 2024


Biden isn't winning 55 seats or expand their Majority significant  in H with 49 percent Approvals because he won 304 with 50/45 Approvals

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 18-19, 1002 adults

Approve 46 (-5)
Disapprove 49 (+6)

Approval by party:

D: 81 (-5)
I: 42 (-2)
R: 11 (-6)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Ooof. Brutal and mostly self-inflected. Noise? Temporary? I'd love to see some higher quality polls.

[Person Man]

Ooof. Brutal and mostly self-inflected. Noise? Temporary? I'd love to see some higher quality polls.

You liked what he did to go from modestly popular to controversial right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ooof. Brutal and mostly self-inflected. Noise? Temporary? I'd love to see some higher quality polls.

You really believe these polls 500 days before an election, Biden does not have to be at 50 percent until next Aug 2022, just remember he monthe NPVI 51/46 that's not much different than 46/49


D's are still gonna sleep 2021 Election but VA Gov will be a nail biter

That's part of the 304 blue wall Cali is gone for Elder

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Ooof. Brutal and mostly self-inflected. Noise? Temporary? I'd love to see some higher quality polls.

You liked what he did to go from modestly popular to controversial right?

Withdrawal is probably as popular as it ever was. It's the execution (and being hypocritically Trumpian?) Biden is getting criticized for.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna have to watch VA Gov there is a 50% chance that Rs can steal the Gov from T Mac due to our Navy presence in VA, it won't mean that much for 2022, because D's have had the Gov for a Decade and Kaine is up in 2024

[Young Conservative]

Biden needs to shift the focus to domestic policy and solving domestic problems. The bipartisan infrastructure bill is not it either, it falls way short. He needs the reconciliation budget passed, Medicare expansion, marijuana legalization, path to citizenship for Dreamers, student debt cancellation, and no more dumb wars.

Kinda hard to shift focus when you have 10k Americans stuck in occupied Taliban territory with no clear way out dude.

[Woody]

Biden is now at the doorstep of underwater approvals over at RCP. And at 538 he is nearing the same.

Biden is a failed president.