Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's ironic to me, users like UBI man are looking for these 60% Approvals and VR or Stimulus checks aren't coming with our VBM ballots IN THE MAIL but that doesn't stop D's from asking for donations

Newsom sent me emails to donate and he didn't give me 600 and Ryan has been too, and there hasn't been 1 poll released showing him ahead, OH is indeed the MT Sen race of 2020, where Bullock lost by 8 and so will he

If Biden remains at 52/48 Approvals, which he will without another round of stimulus checks that Yang has called for

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy daily tracking July 13th 49 Approve 49 Disapprove

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_july13

Far cry from 60% we're in for a 304 map folks, same Approvals like he had during Elections

[Comrade Funk]

Maybe Fuzzy's plan of fetishizing Jews will work one day
https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1414919128134168578

[Horus]

Maybe Fuzzy's plan of fetishizing Jews will work one day
https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1414919128134168578

Another key finding: 25% of American Jews agree with the statement that “Israel is an apartheid state,” including 38% of Jews under the age of 40.

I wonder if 25% is lower or higher than the US population as a whole. Excellent poll either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals aren't any 60% anymore, until Covid is Eradicated, as far as 2022 is concern, it's gonna resurrect the 304 BLUE WALL AND GA going to a Runoff, D's don't need the South to win the Prez and FL is gone, Rubio and DeSantis are at 60% and so is NC, Cooper is term limited and Rs are gonna pick up the Gov race

TX won't vote D before OH, the only person that can win is McCounghey and he isn't running for Gov yet

Look at VA T Mac is gonna win buts gonna be 52/48 not a landslide, VA is in the South

[pbrower2a]

Rassy daily tracking July 13th 49 Approve 49 Disapprove

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_july13

Far cry from 60% we're in for a 304 map folks, same Approvals like he had during Elections

Rasmussen is always an outlier. Unless the vast majority of people that COVID-19 has killed are blacks and Hispanics, which nobody can know yet, Rasmussen is so far off everyone else (the word is "outlier") that it is one of the polls that you can usually cast off. On the other hand, if Rasmussen knows something that the rest of us don't know, then it could be surprisingly right -- as in 2020.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

[Sir Mohamed]

3, 2, 1... OC post incoming:

Biden was never at 60% approvals and as infrastructure stimulus🤑 isnt passed, 304 freiwall has collapsed. Rs gonna win 2022 just as 2010 and its not blue wave due to fact inflation is rising. We're still living in Covid environment. We're 500 days away from election and a lot can happen, but Rs can win congress and McConnell block crt appointments. 2024 is back to 273 freiwall 😁 Its not gonna be landslide

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

[Mr.Phips]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

If going by the 2020 poll bias, Biden’s approval number is probably correct, but his disapproval is likely higher than polls are showing.  He’s probably around 51%-47% (where the popular vote was in 2020).

[THG]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

If going by the 2020 poll bias, Biden’s approval number is probably correct, but his disapproval is likely higher than polls are showing.  He’s probably around 51%-47% (where the popular vote was in 2020).

This is fairly reasonable. A 51-43 approval/disapproval doesn’t add up, it is probably closer to 51-47 or 48-45 in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are useless until next yr in July, 2022 when the Election is near, Rs haven't won the NPVI anyways, since 2016. Its a 304 map, but any wave in the Senate can blow the Rs advantage in the H away, away, away, and D's are looking at at Beasley, Ryan, Nixon, Gross and Fink to bring home the Trifecta

WI and Pa are Lean takeaways in the Senate which replicated the 304 map, I have been saying this for the Longest

That's why Biden and Harris are up 7 against Trump and DeSantis, they have won the 304 map, no one wants tax cuts in a Pandemic for the richest among us, anyways, we can't go back to that

Reagan, Bush W and Trump stole 3T from the Treasury to give GIANT TAX CUTS, RS WONT EVEN GOVE US A 4TH STIMULUS CHECK DUE TO LIKE JOHNSON THEY COMPLAIN ABOUT DEFICITS THAT EVEN RS GOT 3 XS ALREADY ALONG WITH EXTENDED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

I have many people in my family, when is the fourth stimulus coming and they do get child tax credits, because of GAS PRICES AND RS DONT WANT IT

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

If going by the 2020 poll bias, Biden’s approval number is probably correct, but his disapproval is likely higher than polls are showing.  He’s probably around 51%-47% (where the popular vote was in 2020).

I agree as well. Biden's support is typically well reflected but it's Republican, and specifically Trump support, that keeps throwing polls off and making them a less useful metric to predict elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have been a critic of no stimulus passing, there isn't any excuse, but let's remember polls underestimate Minority support they always d

That's what this Election is about Black, Brown and Females and VR

[It’s so Joever]

Well, looks like the commies will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, looks like the commies will win.

Lol we have 500 days til the Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rd win the H D's win WI and PA S and 291 Govs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/04/gov-abbott-rebounds-against-possible-challenger-matthew-mcconaughey-has-razor-thin-edge-over-actor/

Biden at 47/42 in TX per Dallas Morning News poll.

47-42 is not as good as 52-47... but President Biden will not need Texas in 2024.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

Five months after inauguration, an incumbent whose approval numbers are where the voting results were is doing fine. Not everything succeeds. Typically the entertainment media lampoon high-profile incumbents. Well, the lampooning is still heavily the ex-President and some Republican pols. In need give no names.

Yeah this map doesn't happen with Biden Approvals now, honeymoon is over

[pbrower2a]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/04/gov-abbott-rebounds-against-possible-challenger-matthew-mcconaughey-has-razor-thin-edge-over-actor/

Biden at 47/42 in TX per Dallas Morning News poll.

47-42 is not as good as 52-47... but President Biden will not need Texas in 2024.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

Five months after inauguration, an incumbent whose approval numbers are where the voting results were is doing fine. Not everything succeeds. Typically the entertainment media lampoon high-profile incumbents. Well, the lampooning is still heavily the ex-President and some Republican pols. In need give no names.

Yeah this map doesn't happen with Biden Approvals now, honeymoon is over

I'm not always sure that I have the right metric.  It could be net approval versus electoral margin at this stage. That would give some eerie results: for example, if President Biden had approval at 57-40 in Connecticut and a net approval of 17 (let us say 57-40) then I would have Connecticut in negative territory, and if I had Alabama with 21% net disapproval in Alabama (which went 62-37) I would have Alabama in positive territory. There's no poll for either state, so both scenarios are hypothetical. 

Every Presidency is different. Personalities are different as is effectiveness of a President as a leader. There have been far fewer statewide approval polls at this stage than there were with Donald Trump. Approvals for President Biden have been about as sticky on the high side so rar as they were sticky on the low side for Trump. 

....................................

I may have had an unduly crude application of Nate Silver's Myth of 50% for the Presidency involving the Incumbent. I have typically assumed that running a Presidential campaign in a given state is much like running a Gubernatorial or Senatorial campaign for someone who has already won the office. With approval at 43.5% in a state an incumbent holding a Governorship or a Senate seat has a 50% chance of winning re-election if he runs the usual spirited and competent campaign for re-election. A notable exception is an appointed politician who has never proved the ability to win the state in such an election and who often shows such with an incompetent campaign. For that I had the example of Gerald Ford  campaign by an incumbent President for re-election. Gerald Ford had never won a statewide election of any kind, and it showed!

Of course, legislating and government are not as easy as they look. One often gets elected by people who hear and expect one thing and are either disappointed or pleasantly surprised (more the former). Campaign season requires one to put on a happy face and make plenty of appearances at local get-togethers... and while a Governor of Michigan or a US Senator from Michigan might appear at the "Jefferson County* 4-H Fair", the President can't.

The Presidential campaign must spread the resources of a President (as campaign appearances) thin, so here is how I would guess that a President seeking the electoral votes of a state would do if he has these sorts of approval numbers early in a campaign:

53% or higher -- winning in a landslide in that state
51-52% -- winning without really trying
47%-50% -- wins with slight effort
45-46% -- must do a huge amount of campaigning to win
43-44% -- loses unless he puts in an huge effort that all goes right
42% or lower -- forget it! He wins only if the opponent is an epic failure.   

*Michigan has some weird county names, and rather few of the obvious. There is no Michigan county named for any President other than Jackson or Van Buren; Clinton County, Michigan is definitely not named after President William Jefferson Clinton. Another odd one: there is a Churchill, County, Nevada, but it was not named after Sir Winston, as it was named four years before the great statesman was born.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not disproving your map this is a D Midterm not an R midterm, D's performance is gonna end up right where Biden Natl not statewide Approvals end up, it was 51(46% on Election night, and it's 51(49 now meaning 304 map meaning the South, including OH, IA, NC and yes TX goes R

D's are gonna lose seats in TX, FL, KS, IA, NC, OH

But if it was a Trump Midterm, if Trump was still at 46.9 percent, I can see this map happening

Rubio and DeSantis are up 60(40 guarenteeing losses in FL and McCounghey isn't even running for Gov nor Beto making inevitable losses in TX, D's lost seats in TX in 202o

Do I want to see a 218(217 Speaker Jeffries and a 52(48 Sen, hopefully yes, but we don't know how many inc Rs are gonna lose in CA, NY, IL

[DabbingSanta]

Maybe not the right thread, but with six months in I feel it's time to review how the POTUS is doing.  I would say pretty well, all things considered.  Just look at where we were on January 20th versus now.  It's a different world, and America is back on the move.

Some accomplishments:

- Massive vaccine rollout, the largest in American history, was a great success, although to be fair I need to give Trump a bit of credit for creating Operation Warp Speed.

- End of a historic pandemic.  Most Americans can now live day to day without following any health restrictions.  Life appears "normal" again.

- Massive reductions in unemployment, and stock markets are steady.  America is reopen and ready for business.

- Tax credits for parents of 65 million children.  I don't agree with this as a libertarian but there is no doubt these policies will win over people's support, especially after struggling in 2020.

- Bonus point for advocating against communism today in a speech.  Biden is not afraid to go against his far left colleagues and speak the truth.  He is an independent man of character.

Some negatives:

- Race relations remain poor, people of color remain disadvantaged, and America's plague of gun violence is likely to continue despite limited restrictions Biden has placed on assault weapons.  To be fair, we're only six months in, but as a man of the "status quo" Biden is probably not going to do much to actually solve these issues.  Plus, they're good for getting votes, right?

- Inflation, the rise in gas prices and cost of living, and the strain all these massive stimulus packages have on the economy could spell trouble in the next year or two.  Things are coasting along for now, but there are some warning signs we might have some economic troubles ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing has changed he has the exact same Approvals as he had on Election night

But, Yang has called for a Fourth Stimulus and he gave everyone 75K of income Stimulus checks, if he lowered it 35K and give a fourth one, it will help us tremendously, he can once again get 55 percent approvals

Polarization has set in in a 304 map since Trump feels that he beat the Prosecution on him and he is only energizing his Southern base

The North is firmly in BIDEN corner, the South, is firmly in Trump corner, I'm 2010/2014 we didn't lose Progressives, we lost Blue dogs, Landrieu, Pryor and Lincoln and Michelle Nunn lost GA just like Warnock is slightly behind in GA

D's are set to replicate the 304 map in 2022 with WI and PA, MI, AZ going D in the SEN And Govs, it's states like FL, NC and OH that voted for Trump that are trending R again and have Gerrymandering districts in the H

Trump beat the rap on Prosecuting, because Biden has not Prosecuted him on Obstructing Justice because it's tied to Hunter and Ukraine

If Rs regain the H be sure we will hear more about Ukraine

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 14-15, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Approval by party:

D: 88 (-4)
I: 52 (+8)
R: 17 (+4)

The I sample is usually quite small (~100) which explains the large swings in it.

[DabbingSanta]

Nothing has changed he has the exact same Approvals as he had on Election night

Approval average is down 3%, disapproval is up 6%.  Looking at the state level, he is underwater in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he won by slim margins.  Definitely not a position to be comfortable in for the Biden camp.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nothing has changed he has the exact same Approvals as he had on Election night

Approval average is down 3%, disapproval is up 6%.  Looking at the state level, he is underwater in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he won by slim margins.  Definitely not a position to be comfortable in for the Biden camp.

Well, Trump had a much larger deficit in these states which he won narrowly and still came very close in 2020. This doesn't mean anything for 2024.