Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, wasn't Biden number on right track wrong track getting better, it was 55/45, right after stimulus in March, now it's back negative 39/49

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 26-29, 1500 adults including 1290 RV


Adults:

Approve 48 (-2)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+3)


RV:

Approve 50 (-2)
Disapprove 46 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


FWIW, there's a distinct difference in party ID composition between the two samples:

Last week: D 537, R 389, I 389 (41%/30%/30%)

This week: D 516, R 427, I 412 (38%/32%/30%)

That is a huge difference in samples.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again Biden Approvals are the same as they're were in 2020, if the Election were held today the 291/304 map would be replicated as long as Covid is here there isn't gonna be a huge bump in polls,

Biden was at 51/46 and won the 304 blue wall and his polls aren't 55% it's 51% mediocre

The right track/wrong track numbers were getting better due to the stimulus checks in March due to 300 and 1400 now they have gone dry and right track/wrong track is now 39/49%

That's why Biden isn't at 55/60% Approvals the right track/wrong track numbers have gone to Trump levels, due to no more stimulus, his progrems are popular, he still is at 51% Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let me be clear, UBI benefits should of been passed, but since people got dependent on stimulus checks they're expecting a Stimulus every year and we should we are not out of Covid, yet 16th mnth, and people are still in debt Bankruptcy and Student Loans aren't being repaid but your regular bills are

Manchin act like with all these jobs, that's not white collar jobs you should work and many of them are paying 15 but part time

[wbrocks67]

can YouGov stop with these erratic samples? i feel like this is happening a lot lately

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

can YouGov stop with these erratic samples? i feel like this is happening a lot lately

This is very close to Trump Approvals were before Election day, you really think Biden is at 60% is beyond me in a Pandemic

I take those You Gov polls, Biden won 304 EC wall 51/46 and he is at 51/49% Approval

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 30-July 1, 1004 adults

Approve 51 (-2)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Now we see an IPSOS POLL SHOWING A 51 APPROVAL RATINGS, the same polls that showed up Biden +12 over Trump and DeSantis

[pbrower2a]

It's mostly a favorability poll, so I can use it solely for calibration.

Governor Doug Ducey (R) 47-49 on favorability

President Joe Biden (D) 49-48 on favorability

former President Donald Trump (R) 46-51 on favorability

US Senator Mark Kelly (D)  48-41 on favorability

US Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D) 50-37 on favorability


...Arizona could be the equivalent in 2020 of Virginia in 2008 in partisan tendency.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017a-53b6-d92f-a1fe-d3f62f8b0000

Do you support or not support the audit of the ballots in Maricopa County?

46% support (37% strongly)
49% oppose (42% strongly)

Thinking about future elections in Arizona, if a candidate for elected office in Arizona supported this Maricopa County audit, would you be more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

37% more likely, 46% less likely

If the election for President of the United States were held again today and the candidates were – Joe Biden and Donald Trump, whom would you vote for?

51% Biden, 44% Trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, June 22-29, 1115 adults including 905 RV (change from earlier in June, according to the release, but I don't recall seeing that earlier poll and can't find it online)

Adults:

Approve 50 (-1)
Disapprove 43 (-3)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-2)


RV:

Approve 51
Disapprove 44

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 33

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks like the honeymoon is kind of over, though these numbers would be fine on election day 2022. If he remains above 48% approval going into 2024, Biden will be reelected as prez.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course the honeymoon is over, people are estopped from relying on stimulus checks and have to find real jobs now, with the jobs reports there aren't gonna be anymore stimulus checks going out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UBI BENEFITS WERE VERY POPULAR AND ALL CONGRESS HAS TO DO IS GIVE ONE MORE 1K STIMULUS PAYMENT BUT MANCHIN OR BIDEN DONT WANT TO TALK ABOUT THEY FEAR THAT IT WILL STOP PEOPLE FROM Looking for WORK BUT WE ARE IN THE 17TH MNTH OF COVID, PEOPLE ARE STILL STRUGGLING

[pbrower2a]

Looks like the honeymoon is kind of over, though these numbers would be fine on election day 2022. If he remains above 48% approval going into 2024, Biden will be reelected as prez.

The honeymoon is over, and legislative process is messy. Few US Presidents operate in campaign mode all the time, and it is best that they don't.

Nate Silver tells us that incumbent Senators and Governors typically gain about 6.5% from their early support at the beginning of the electoral year from a spirited and competent campaign against the typical opponent. It can be more or less. Most incumbent show why they were elected the first time, and they do much the same the second time.

Troubled incumbents usually have low approval numbers at the start of the campaign season. It is possible to have early support in the high 30's according to some hostile poll that distorts things on behalf of one's opponent, but that rarely happens. At 43.5% initial support one typically has about a 50% chance of winning, and the possibility deviates rapidly from that with every increase or decrease.

We don't know what the approval numbers or match-up numbers will be in early 2024, but here is my guess on how he would do with approval numbers from 39% to 52%

38  .0000001
39  .0001
40  .005
41  .1
42  .2
43  .4
44  .6
45  .75
46  .87
49  .95
50  .99
51  .995
52  .9995

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like the honeymoon is kind of over, though these numbers would be fine on election day 2022. If he remains above 48% approval going into 2024, Biden will be reelected as prez.

The honeymoon is over, and legislative process is messy. Few US Presidents operate in campaign mode all the time, and it is best that they don't.

Nate Silver tells us that incumbent Senators and Governors typically gain about 6.5% from their early support at the beginning of the electoral year from a spirited and competent campaign against the typical opponent. It can be more or less. Most incumbent show why they were elected the first time, and they do much the same the second time.

Troubled incumbents usually have low approval numbers at the start of the campaign season. It is possible to have early support in the high 30's according to some hostile poll that distorts things on behalf of one's opponent, but that rarely happens. At 43.5% initial support one typically has about a 50% chance of winning, and the possibility deviates rapidly from that with every increase or decrease.

We don't know what the approval numbers or match-up numbers will be in early 2024, but here is my guess on how he would do with approval numbers from 39% to 52%

38  .0000001
39  .0001
40  .005
41  .1
42  .2
43  .4
44  .6
45  .75
46  .87
49  .95
50  .99
51  .995
52  .9995

You know of RS take the H they're gonna start investigating into Hunter and markets already have D's controlling S and Rs controlled H, based in n no VR passed to circumvent Gerrymandering, so Biden numbers can go down as soon as Rs control the H

[pbrower2a]

Politicians can be in weak positions for many reasons, including changes in the statewide political culture. If you think that breaking scandals can gut a pol's chance, dropping approval from the high forties to the low thirties, think again: those pols usually telegraph something about themselves. They show a lack of enthusiasm for politics, and the journalists of ink and electrons typically avoid issuing laudatory stories about them, as such are bad for their careers. Thus "Governor Grafter" and "Senator Sleaze" get the cold shoulder from the media before the story falls.

Well-funded attacks by special interests upon a supposedly lovable liberal (let us say Russ Feingold in Wisconsin in 2010) have often set the stage well before the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no smoking Gun in Hunter Biden but of course not, but that's not gonna stop Rs from investigating Hunter, there wasn't a smoking gun with Benghazi either, but the Rs want the 2024 Prez Election badly,

But, as I said repeatly, Biden didn't pick Doug Jones for AG for a reason, he picked an ally in Garland and we know he has protected Trump in a Deformation Lawsuit, and the Justice Dept so far haven't finished Mueller's job on prosecuting Trump on Obstructing Justice on the Ukraine impeachment inquiry, because it hits home with Hunter Biden, but they retrieved Hunter Biden laptop from Guiliani

Another broken promise, no stimulus checks and people are still drowning in debt due to Covid crisis, no Eradication of Covid, and said he would have done so by 4th of July and protecting Trump

Why are they even bothering investigating the Insurrectionists, FBI said Trump can't be charged with inciting a riot, not enough evidence, that's why Biden is at 51/49 not at 60 like he was after he passed 1400

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1411061392199856130

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1411071665375793156

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you guys really think Biden is at 60%, Harris uses RV not LV and we are still in the 17th mnth of the Pandemic

The only way Biden gets a 60% overall approval is we get out of Covid entity, once again, people are still drowning in debt and we need a 1K stimulus check which Congress won't pass

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1411071665375793156

Add the two and you get close to 100%, which reflects how polarized America is. Donald Trump has a cult of people who think that he could do no wrong, and some people would even risk their lives and legal status on his behalf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1411071665375793156

Add the two and you get close to 100%, which reflects how polarized America is. Donald Trump has a cult of people who think that he could do no wrong, and some people would even risk their lives and legal status on his behalf

You do realize Trump created the vaccine and gas prices were at an all time low, it's 5.00 like under Obama

There may or may or be a blue wave, but Trump was a conservative and Biden whom supported Clarence Thomas to SCOTUS by putting him up to a floor vote as Chairman of Judiciary Committee asked Anita Hill just like Cosby accusers waited, why now

Biden no way Is a Conservative but he isn't Obama either, he is just as responsible for the bind we're in in this 6/3 Supermajority Crt with Clarence Thomas

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1411071665375793156

Add the two and you get close to 100%, which reflects how polarized America is. Donald Trump has a cult of people who think that he could do no wrong, and some people would even risk their lives and legal status on his behalf

You do realize Trump created the vaccine and gas prices were at an all time low, it's 5.00 like under Obama

There may or may or be a blue wave, but Trump was a conservative and Biden whom supported Clarence Thomas to SCOTUS by putting him up to a floor vote as Chairman of Judiciary Committee asked Anita Hill just like Cosby accusers waited, why now

Biden no way Is a Conservative but he isn't Obama either, he is just as responsible for the bind we're in in this 6/3 Supermajority Crt with Clarence Thomas

Clarence Thomas is a judicial hack, someone incapable of any original thought and tied to a political agenda. He's basically a token from long ago. Would someone like he be nominated for the Supreme Court again? Not likely. People are on to the "hustle" that is the token in business and politics.

You could spot these people a mile away. Although undeniably black in appearance, they had political views uncharacteristic of the majority of professional African-Americans who generally shun them. They had weird titles usually associated with public relations -- never something difficult such as engineering, accounting, or law. They did many appearances for purposes of public relations, with plenty of photo shoots at company picnics and the like. The Big Wheels do not attend such events. (I will excuse those who do recruiting tours at college campuses because they might be seeking such people as engineers, accountants, salesmen, and the like).

The highest gas price that I ever saw in southern rural Michigan (which isn't that much of a tourist area) was $5.49 a gallon in September 2008... when Dubya was President. I do not blame Dubya for that; late-wave speculative activity at the time leading into a major crash is basically gambling, as was also true in 1929. People are "in" the market who should never be in it, and they are simply the last suckers to buy in. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I didn't mean that Biden or the D's will lose the Election, it's a 304 map AZ, NV, GA, NH, WI and PA are Lean D at Gov and Senate.  But High Gas prices could affect wave insurance seats OH, NC, IA, FL are key to holding the H, and the high gas prices can affect the oil and gas states because pipelines run thru those states and the key to holding the H is to create a blue wave but we don't have any polling from those states OH, NC Sen especially

Middle class voters don't like High Gas prices and we are at 5.00 on West Coast, HI, AK, CA, NV, AZ

Watch out for that AZ Senate race too, Kelly isn't shoe in

[Devils30]

50/42 in ABC/WashPo. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/june-27-30-2021-washington-post-abc-news-poll/9f67b281-b289-4e67-a9e1-9515018d7e90/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

Crosstabs suggest almost nothing has changed since last fall.