Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

The thing is that Biden should know better after being Obama’s Vice President for eight years.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

The thing is that Biden should know better after being Obama’s Vice President for eight years.

I think he does. Obama would have gleefully gone along with Sinemanchin and complained about everyone not taking the win.

Biden understands that rewarding senators for betraying him is just going to kill is presidency.

BIF+Reconciliation and his numbers shoot back up, BIF and he's already a lame duck.

[wbrocks67]

Selzer doesn't look as such an outlier anymore, does it?

Yes it does. Even if Biden is down 4 or 5 nationally, that still doesn't point to a -31 in Iowa. Iowa was about 12% to the right of the nation in 2020, so even if you threw in a couple points, that would still only lead to a max of maybe -20 for Biden in IA.

[pbrower2a]

Challengers -- even Mitt Romney -- are vulnerable to negative ads. Those can be over things not related to the Presidency, like mass firings as an owner of an enterprise. Even putting a dog in an animal crate on the roof of a car for a long trip was a viral story that ended up hurting the Romney campaign:



Incumbents typically create and maintain the narrative, which makes them difficult to defeat unless the public has tired of them (the elder Bush.. well it was twelve years instead of eight years of basically the same policies) or either the economy or foreign policy (such as a war going badly) is a mess (Hoover 1932, Carter 1980). To this one could include Presidents not choosing to run for a term for which they were eligible (Truman 1952, Johnson 1968). Ford had never been elected Vice-President, so in 1976 he was running for his first electoral term and demonstrated the usual weaknesses of a Presidential nominee who had never been elected to any statewide office,

OK... Trump? He got elected in 2016 by winning the right votes  instead of winning the popular vote, and he proved extremely erratic as President... he did end up winning more popular votes in 2020 than in 2016, but largely because he won votes that would never swing a state. He did not win people over from the Other Side of the political spectrum. In a country as polarized as America is, demographics decide elections, and demographics hurt Trump in 2020 because Trump's constituency was more likely to die of cancer, strokes, and heart attacks related to age.

The retreat from Afghanistan is a political disaster, and President Biden is around when it happened. But this involves a treaty by the prior President, and the current one is stuck with it.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Selzer doesn't look as such an outlier anymore, does it?

Yes it does. Even if Biden is down 4 or 5 nationally, that still doesn't point to a -31 in Iowa. Iowa was about 12% to the right of the nation in 2020, so even if you threw in a couple points, that would still only lead to a max of maybe -20 for Biden in IA.

Even if?


State polls >>> national polls.

Selzer doesn't seems like such an outlier, given polls from Qunnipiac (TX and FL?) and High point (NC). That's, what I meant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning? Some of these numbers of stunning.

D's are tied or leading in every 304 blue wall state AZ, CO, MI, PA, VA , NH, NV and WI, Sen and Gov races BIDEN DOESN'T JAVE TO BE AT 50% ALL THE TIME, except on Election night. RS HAVEN'T CRACKED THE 278BLUE WALL SINCE BENGHAZI HILLARY AND WE DONT NEED THE SOUTH, YOU REASON THINK INSURRECTIONISTS TRUMP IS GONNA WIN. The only reason Trump won Gary Johnson took 50K votes from Hillary in MI, WI and PA, we have won them in 2018/2020

Biden doesn't campaign til Aug 2022 Midterms and 1500 days til Prez election

[BigSerg]

The people are opening their eyes, the people do not want a senile lunatic in the White House!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

[Gass3268]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

[BigSerg]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

D + 8

[Gass3268]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

The Delta wave is waning and the Afghanistan pullout is further out of people's memories.

D + 8

The Republican Party is a disaster, I know.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some better news for Biden from a good pollster:

Marist, Sep. 20-26, 1220 adults including 1029 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 17 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-4)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)

[Person Man]

SEP 20-26, 2021

A-rated Marist College

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

45 (+2)
46 (-5)

RV:
46 (+3)
46 (-5)


GB:
D+8  

That’s a Uhhh… a bummer, man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I seriously doubt that it's D plus six a 50/48 Election is D plus 2(3 pts, but if his Approvals jump to 53(47 it's a whole new ballgame

We are level pegging like Nate Silver said with a 304 map but anything can happen in a yr

Kelly is only up by 2 pts

And we don't know how long it's gonna take for D's to raise the Debt Ceiling any delay in SSA checks Biden will be endangered and so will T Mac in VA.
But, I am optimistic, but D's knew 10 wks Rs wàsnt gonna raise Debt Ceiling and they Dared them and Rs didn't blink

Also, we have a Medicare Expansion that won't take effect til 2028 and the reason why we had 29T in debt is due to Unemployment benefits 300 extra and tax cuts

1400 checks were tip of iceberg but it was the Federal Unemployment benefits

[pbrower2a]

I seriously doubt that it's D plus six a 50/48 Election is D plus 2(3 pts, but if his Approvals jump to 53(47 it's a whole new ballgame

We are level pegging like Nate Silver said with a 304 map but anything can happen in a yr

Kelly is only up by 2 pts

And we don't know how long it's gonna take for D's to raise the Debt Ceiling any delay in SSA checks Biden will be endangered and so will T Mac in VA.
But, I am optimistic, but D's knew 10 wks Rs wàsnt gonna raise Debt Ceiling and they Dared them and Rs didn't blink

Also, we have a Medicare Expansion that won't take effect til 2028 and the reason why we had 29T in debt is due to Unemployment benefits 300 extra and tax cuts

1400 checks were tip of iceberg but it was the Federal Unemployment benefits

Do not predict any trend at this stage other than bounce-back, barring a justifiable change in perception. Such would be a personal scandal, a bungled war, or an economic meltdown.

If the already-inoculated are not getting sick and dying of COVID-19, they are getting sick and tired of people getting COVID-19, clogging hospital emergency rooms, exhausting public funds in medical treatment (ICU treatment devours personal assets and makes public charges out of the ill), and dying. I will probably have a booster shot (late November or early December)  before a big chunk of America has yet to get inoculated. Some things defy explanation.

Republicans keep telling us that catastrophic failure is nigh -- but Trump sealed the fate of Afghanistan, and the only catastrophic social reality is that people are still contracting and dying of COVID-19.

 

[VAR]

Virginia - Fox News

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-tight-race-for-virginia-governor

[wbrocks67]

Virginia - Fox News

50% Approve
49% Disapprove

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-tight-race-for-virginia-governor

This seems more in-line with CW (and national polling) than those -5 VA polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 29-30, 1005 adults

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

[Biden his time]

It looks like Biden is bottoming out

As the COVID summer surge fades Biden may do well again

He needs the economy to work

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The people are opening their eyes, the people do not want a senile lunatic in the White House!

Which is why the American people fired dementia Trump in a 306 EV landslide loss. Sad!

[pbrower2a]

It looks like Biden is bottoming out

As the COVID summer surge fades Biden may do well again

He needs the economy to work

That is what I expect and see, although it is not definitive.

I can't say whether statewide polls lag or lead.

...Obviously the economy must not melt down, but this isn't the middle of the Double-Zero decade in which a corrupt speculative boom was peaking. At that time I saw an article in Business Week in which the article delineated a scandal of questionable ratings of residential loans. Ordinarily the packaging of a large number of solid loans is good for reducing risk to near zero. Packaging fecal loans might reduce risk slightly, but not enough to make those loans safe. Whether the raters were corrupt or applied an inappropriate model for the lack of anything better is unclear, but I read that article and predicted a 1929-style crash. Which we got!

We now have a housing shortage, which reflects itself in super-cautious lending. The only people for whom housing is being built are, frankly, rich people who can afford over-priced McMansions. Meanwhile, rentals skyrocket for everyone else, and economic inequality intensifies. The biggest expenditure that a large number of Americans have is property rent... and, no, it is not because insurance, property taxes, and maintenance are skyrocketing.  

COVID-19 will die, but only after it takes substantially more lives in its lethal slaughter. More than already? Of course not. That the victims are heavily on the Right side of the political spectrum suggests that America will lean increasingly Democratic in 2022 and 2024. Demographics are everything in a highly-polarized society in which people change their views slowly if at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It looks like Biden is bottoming out

As the COVID summer surge fades Biden may do well again

He needs the economy to work

It's a 304 map anyways Biden isn't gonna get a 3=5T dollar spending deal, Manchin already said he wants a 1=2T we are gonna keep the Senate, but Redistricting in H in TX and FL without immigration reform and Biden is letting illegals in without controlling border I'd gonna hurt D's in TX and FL

A 52/48 and 222/216DH can happen yes but it's not gonna be a D plus 5/8 Election more like a D plus 3.1 Election like 2020

That is what I expect and see, although it is not definitive.

I can't say whether statewide polls lag or lead.

...Obviously the economy must not melt down, but this isn't the middle of the Double-Zero decade in which a corrupt speculative boom was peaking. At that time I saw an article in Business Week in which the article delineated a scandal of questionable ratings of residential loans. Ordinarily the packaging of a large number of solid loans is good for reducing risk to near zero. Packaging fecal loans might reduce risk slightly, but not enough to make those loans safe. Whether the raters were corrupt or applied an inappropriate model for the lack of anything better is unclear, but I read that article and predicted a 1929-style crash. Which we got!

We now have a housing shortage, which reflects itself in super-cautious lending. The only people for whom housing is being built are, frankly, rich people who can afford over-priced McMansions. Meanwhile, rentals skyrocket for everyone else, and economic inequality intensifies. The biggest expenditure that a large number of Americans have is property rent... and, no, it is not because insurance, property taxes, and maintenance are skyrocketing.  

COVID-19 will die, but only after it takes substantially more lives in its lethal slaughter. More than already? Of course not. That the victims are heavily on the Right side of the political spectrum suggests that America will lean increasingly Democratic in 2022 and 2024. Demographics are everything in a highly-polarized society in which people change their views slowly if at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Sep. 23-27, 1099 adults (change from mid-August)

Approve 50 (-4)
Disapprove 49 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll
9/20-9/26

Adults (compared to 9/3 poll)
45% approve (+2)
46% disapprove (-5)

RV
46% approve
46% disapprove

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_PLCV_202109271420.pdf

I posted this one yesterday:

Some better news for Biden from a good pollster:

Marist, Sep. 20-26, 1220 adults including 1029 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 17 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-4)

RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 46 (-5)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)