Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Matty]

If biden is truly at 31% in iowa, he is also deeply underwater in wisconsin and michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 14 mnths til the Election abd Users are Dooming again, lol, Covid cases are going down, Biden only has to be at 50% or above on Election night to avoid a 2010 scenario not 14 mnths before

We didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we werent expected to gain the H, it was projected that we gain 10/15 seats, so stop Panicking a yr before the Election, it's not time to vote in Midterms yet

But, Newsom won, he had Endorsements lined up for the LA Mayor election already next yr 2022

[Ferguson97]

According to the The Detroit news Biden’s approval in Michigan is 39/53. If those numbers are anywhere accurate that is horrific for Michigan.

Yeah, I don't believe that.

[wbrocks67]

According to the The Detroit news Biden’s approval in Michigan is 39/53. If those numbers are anywhere accurate that is horrific for Michigan.

Yeah, I don't believe that.

Craig (R)'s own internal in Michigan has Biden at 48/51, so yeah

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

And looks like the main culprit is Biden voters saying "not sure". You have 1% of Trump voters say not sure on approval, but 11% of Biden voters.

It's more proof that as much as many of us defend Biden, we are not a cult and have standards. The downside to that though is that it's almost another example of us unilaterally disarming. Trump got away with so much because his base was stubborn and devout. Biden has to tread more carefully because Democrats and others who voted for Biden don't operate that way mentally. We probably have to though to balance out the over-represented white, rural Trump cabal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If PPP poll has TMac ahead he's gonna win

[S019]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Honestly, if it is actually this bad, Miller or Fitzgerald could absolutely go down. It's just remarkable how quickly this state shifted to safe R, though 60% disapprove is still a bit high for the state atm imo, Biden is probably down at least 10 nationally, if these are the IA numbers

[MR DARK BRANDON]

HarrisX (sept 8-9);

Approve; 55%
Disapprove; 45%

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1440443857112494081

[kwabbit]

The -31 for Biden in Iowa Selzer is too extreme to be believed, but Selzer is absolutely a poll that you should give credence. If Biden's at -31 in Iowa, or anything close to it, say -25, then he's probably quite unpopular in the Midwest, not around even like national polls would suggest. Midwest polling has been spectacularly bad since 2016, but Selzer has been a lone positive. It's frankly the only poll in the Midwest that can be trusted, and one -31 poll in Iowa tells us way more about Wisconsin then 10 polls of Wisconsin itself from other pollsters.

[Mr.Phips]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Honestly, if it is actually this bad, Miller or Fitzgerald could absolutely go down. It's just remarkable how quickly this state shifted to safe R, though 60% disapprove is still a bit high for the state atm imo, Biden is probably down at least 10 nationally, if these are the IA numbers

Iowa will likely be voting like Missouri in 2022 and 2024.

[Annatar]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

[Devils30]

The -31 for Biden in Iowa Selzer is too extreme to be believed, but Selzer is absolutely a poll that you should give credence. If Biden's at -31 in Iowa, or anything close to it, say -25, then he's probably quite unpopular in the Midwest, not around even like national polls would suggest. Midwest polling has been spectacularly bad since 2016, but Selzer has been a lone positive. It's frankly the only poll in the Midwest that can be trusted, and one -31 poll in Iowa tells us way more about Wisconsin then 10 polls of Wisconsin itself from other pollsters.

People are underrating the possibility of Ds keeping the House because of strong suburban showings in a D+2 type of year while they potentially lose PA, WI and maybe one like NH. D House/R senate doesn't seem too likely but it is definitely possible and even another 50-50 Senate guarantees an R takeover in 2024.

[Matty]

HarrisX (sept 8-9);

Approve; 55%
Disapprove; 45%

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1440443857112494081

Lmao

I’m emailing these pollsters do ask them what their deal is

[BG-NY]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Yikes!

[Bootes Void]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

Biden did win 39% of the non college white vote in Iowa, this is much much higher than anywhere in the south

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Yikes!

Biden is MIA on Debt Ceiling and they might have to give up their 4=7T dream of spending bill to raise the Debt Ceiling increase until after the Midterms

Manchin and Sinema aren't going to give up the Filibuster on Debt ceiling but for VR yeah

Govt cannot default on the debt
Told you Biden is a disappointment, what happened to his inauguration that he gets along well with Rs and can move them, everything has gone thru party line votes on Reconciliation

There hasn't been one bill passed with 60 votes

[Annatar]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

Biden did win 39% of the non college white vote in Iowa, this is much much higher than anywhere in the south

Yes he did, that is why him being at 31% approval implies that 2024 might be when non college whites in Iowa vote like southern ones.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Not a big crossover from 2020 with Youngkin not really winning over Biden supporters. I think this will be over 6% in the end.

The pollsters are going to be humiliated in Virginia the same way as they did in California. The Democrats are going to win by at least 6%.

[Bootes Void]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

Biden did win 39% of the non college white vote in Iowa, this is much much higher than anywhere in the south

Yes he did, that is why him being at 31% approval implies that 2024 might be when non college whites in Iowa vote like southern ones.

even if you believe he is at 31% approval(which I dont btw), Biden is very much going through a rough patch of his presidency( foreign policy, weakening economy, delta wave, no infastructure bill yet) but things will most likely get better from here. Dont make assumptions of 2024 yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remember many democrats over the past decade claiming non college whites in Iowa will never vote like non college whites in the south because they are less religious, less racist, more liberal etc, if Biden really is in the low 30’s in Iowa, non college whites in Iowa might start voting like southern whites.

Biden did win 39% of the non college white vote in Iowa, this is much much higher than anywhere in the south

Yes he did, that is why him being at 31% approval implies that 2024 might be when non college whites in Iowa vote like southern ones.

even if you believe he is at 31% approval(which I dont btw), Biden is very much going through a rough patch of his presidency( foreign policy, weakening economy, delta wave, no infastructure bill yet) but things will most likely get better from here. Dont make assumptions of 2024 yet.

Buden might not even get his 4.7T dollar domestic agenda passed, Rs aren't going nna lift the debt Ceiling or fund the Govt to pay for D's Reconciliation Bill

The Southern Border that Harris was supposed to be in charge of is disasterous and D's want an amnesty bill

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris has been running for Prez the whole time but haven't done her job at the border and Beto wants to be Gov of TX he will lose

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 18-21, 1500 adults including 1281 RV


Adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (-2)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 35 (-2)


RV:

Approve 46 (=)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (=)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h4zvi2yb6c/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Gallup, September 1-17 (compared to Aug 2-17)

Approve 43 (-6)
Disapprove 53 (+5)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx

[Matty]

From Gallup -- " among elected presidents since World War II, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies."

[wbrocks67]

From Gallup -- " among elected presidents since World War II, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies."

Besides the fact that context is key here and we knew Biden had a rough patch (appears to be stabilizing now), it's essentially a futile effort at this point to compare anything to basically before the W/Obama years, when polarization really started kicking in.