Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Crumpets]

Warnock and Ossoff both leading by 40+ points right now on the NYT site. Clearly rigged!

[Omolloy]

I'm ready to make my prediction ... that this will be a very close race

[MillennialModerate]

Needle makes no sense.

First it says...

Prediction: Tilt D

Then more votes come in...

Batch Expected Result: 56% R; Actual: 54% R
Update Prediction ; Tilt R

[ajc0918]

Per NYT needle the Fulton drop was expected to be D+55 and it was won D+59.

[musicblind]

Honestly I’m just more sad it will be this close considering how bad both reps ran their campaigns

I mean... it is Georgia.

[ultraviolet]

Warnock and Ossoff both leading by 40+ points right now on the NYT site. Clearly rigged!

Stop the count! Stop the steal!

[SN2903]

Webster #s not good for dems

[soundchaser]

Per NYT needle the Fulton drop was expected to be D+55 and it was won D+59.

It’s possible I’m reading too much into this, but both Dems seem to be hitting their benchmarks and both Republicans underperforming theirs...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Per NYT needle the Fulton drop was expected to be D+55 and it was won D+59.

Nice

[MillennialModerate]

Honestly I’m just more sad it will be this close considering how bad both reps ran their campaigns

Insanely greedy.

If Dems were to win this (I’d literally bet anyone on here with 2 to 1 odds that they won’t) but if they did. Complaining about the margin would be the height of greedy.

[Adam Griffin]

A lot of the red counties have Ossoff doing substantially better in the current vote than Biden in November. Overall, Ossoff outrunning Biden in red counties with results.

It's early vote, but history would suggest this is early in-person vote more so than mail vote, which is interesting.

[forsythvoter]

There's now a 3 point gap between Perdue and Loeffler. I can't see any candidate winning by 3% of more given the results right now so this might be an indication we are headed for a split verdict?

[Crumpets]

So this Public Service Commission District 4 election that's also happening tonight. Who is expected to win that? Currently the Dem is up 66%-34% and I have no idea what that means.

[Xing]

Hero of the Suburbs David Perdue under 30% in Ancestrally Republican Gwinnett? Not possible! Rigged!

[Oryxslayer]

Gwinnet (EV? ED?) vote on DDHQ. About 600 out of 96K voters went Warnock/Perdue. The suburban hero!

[wbrocks67]

MSNBC: Ossoff and Warnock both get 80/81% of mail-in vote in Fulton County, beating Biden's 79%

[ProgressiveModerate]

MSNBC: Ossoff and Warnock both get 80/81% of mail-in vote in Fulton County, beating Biden's 79%

There is evidence to suggests that the mail vote skewed more heavily D in these runoffs than in Nov though, so that's not a suprise.

[Adam Griffin]

Ossoff and Warnock outrunning Biden in the mail vote margin in Gwinnett by 10-11 points.

[Crumpets]

Ossoff has gone from +<0.1% projected margin and 50% chance of winning to 0.1% projected margin and 51% chance of winning. Discuss with maps.

[Gracile]

There's now a 3 point gap between Perdue and Loeffler. I can't see any candidate winning by 3% of more given the results right now so this might be an indication we are headed for a split verdict?

I think it's partly because heavily Democratic Rockdale is reporting their results for the Special but not the Regular on the NYT site.

[libertpaulian]

Holy crap those Gwinnett numbers!!!

[Omolloy]

Apparently Fulton County will end up with about ~78,000 fewer votes than in November. Not sure what that really means though, seems like around 85% of November turnout

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I am going to do a needle dance in the hopes that it influences the needle to bestow good results. Also I encourage everyone to make a sacrifice to the needle (though not one that harms any person or creature).

I had to throw out a sock with too many holes in it yesterday, can that count?

The needle just went from +0.1 R in both races to +0.1D. The dance is working! If anyone (who wants the Ds to win) has not yet done a needle dance or a sacrifice, now is your moment! R's should please not do a needle dance, however................

[wbrocks67]

MSNBC: Gwinett County - Warnock/Ossoff getting 70-71% of mail-in vote. Biden had 65%.

[forsythvoter]

There's now a 3 point gap between Perdue and Loeffler. I can't see any candidate winning by 3% of more given the results right now so this might be an indication we are headed for a split verdict?

I think it's partly because heavily Democratic Rockdale is reporting their results for the Special but not the Regular on the NYT site.

Oh, gotcha. That would explain a lot of it.