Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not sure why but betting markets have swung wildly in Perdue's favor (57-43)

Wow, they really have, but Warnock is leading in his? How can the markets think Perdue is so heavily favored (now at 61 percent), but Warnock wins his race?

Because they don't know anything and are going purely off of emotion?

[LimoLiberal]

I just put $80 on Rs winning both

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

WTF is this?  

https://twitter.com/jhpark06_/status/1346579738651856896

FF tweet

[LimoLiberal]

I just put $80 on Rs winning both

Yeah this is over

Considering some of my past predictions hopefully I've clinched it for Ossoff and Warnock.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1346588703804817411

If anyone wants to extrapolate the topline, its 50/50. So enjoy that.

This all comes out to Warnock +0.5. As of now though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 live blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-election-results/

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I just put $80 on Rs winning both

Yeah this is over

How? Why?

[pantsaregood]

The worst possible outcome of this is Loeffler and Perdue winning by like 7 votes each and MillennialModerate insisting he knew all along and that he was "right" despite predicting a "not close" race.

[Roblox]

Are you guys really freaking out over early exit polls?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1346591543558369282

Yikes

Just a reminder that most models of the EV have Rs in a deeper hole RN than Trump was heading into e-day. E-day turnout generally seems high across the board from DeKalb to several redder counties. Part of the equation too is not only how high turnout is but how it breaks for the GOP.

[musicblind]

Not sure why but betting markets have swung wildly in Perdue's favor (57-43)

Wow, they really have, but Warnock is leading in his? How can the markets think Perdue is so heavily favored (now at 61 percent), but Warnock wins his race?

Because they don't know anything and are going purely off of emotion?

They need to check their emotions for multiple personality disorder.

[GAKas]

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1346591543558369282

Just so people know, Putnam county isn't all that big. Less than 9K voted for Trump in November there, so even if they hit 9.5-10K, it's not a massive difference. It's no Cherokee or Forsyth I guess is my point.

[LimoLiberal]

Are you guys really freaking out over early exit polls?

No need to look at early exit polls, look at the 70% R+ counties exceeding their November in-person vote already. Yes Dekalb is there too, but higher turnout today is good for Republicans period.

[7,052,770]

Putnam County had <12,000 votes in November, so that would be Rs gaining 1,000 or less, and even that's assuming the extra votes also breaking 70-30, which there's no evidence of

[Rand]

How many votes will Kanye get?

[MillennialModerate]

I get the exit polls have issues but can anyone with a straight face say that Dems are going to win with an exit poll that has a 13 point GOP advantage? And Black voters only 20%? And young voters being 13%?.... try not to let your feelings on me distract you from the blatant facts and

What, those aren’t even the numbers the exit polls said. I personally think Rs are the slightest of favorites, but at this point you’re just spewing out things that are untrue. You can argue Republicans are solid favorites if you want but at least use real data points

Genuinely misread. Thought it said 39-26, not 39-36.

[BudgieForce]

Putnam County had <12,000 votes in November, so that would be Rs gaining 1,000 or less, and even that's assuming the extra votes also breaking 70-30, which there's no evidence of

I was under the impression Putnam had lower early vote than in November, so it could just be voters switching methods.

[MillennialModerate]

My personal barometer of how to forecast things is people responding to me with

“even if you are right, it doesn’t mean anything”

As opposed to “you’re an idiot and wrong”.

I’m mad for letting a hint of optimism creep into my subconscious when my brain told me lightning can’t strike twice. Honestly the circumstances are ALOT harder this time then the Presidential race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I just put $80 on Rs winning both

Yeah this is over

How? Why?

People want a check on Biden

[wbrocks67]

Are you guys really freaking out over early exit polls?

No need to look at early exit polls, look at the 70% R+ counties exceeding their November in-person vote already. Yes Dekalb is there too, but higher turnout today is good for Republicans period.

Not necessarily true, if Democrat over-turnout is countering it.

[AGA]

I just put $80 on Rs winning both

Put some money on them too. At least I'll be compensated if I don't get my desired outcome.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1346586297134182400

[pantsaregood]

My personal barometer of how to forecast things is people responding to me with

“even if you are right, it doesn’t mean anything”

As opposed to “you’re an idiot and wrong”.

I’m mad for letting a hint of optimism creep into my subconscious when my brain told me lightning can’t strike twice. Honestly the circumstances are ALOT harder this time then the Presidential race.

Literally no one is telling you to be optimistic. They're telling you that EVERY DATA POINT WE HAVE says "toss up."

If I predict an Ossoff win by 7 votes and Perdue happens to win by 3 votes, my prediction was more accurate than you "IT WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE GIVE IT UP GUYS MY FEELINGS" nonsense.

[wbrocks67]

AP/FOX/VoteCast apparently did an exit poll too, and it's looking different than CNN's, just like in Nov.  Warnock/Ossoff also way better trustworthy than Loeffler/Perdue...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWithPri/status/1346592738943254528

[Brittain33]

I was watching Fox News and the mirror to the honesty numbers is that both Warnock and Ossoff rate higher for "extreme views" than the others, and I think it was over 50.