Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[pppolitics]

Could we all go back to discussing the runoff?

Thanks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

We could, but we probably won’t.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over Tuesday anyways, the Rs lost all credibility when they blocked 2K payments for stimulus package, that's why in every poll, since then, they are losing

People already haven't gotten their income tax refunds in a timely manner,we need 2K, not 600 that will be go to food and groceries and dinner. People need 2K for more than food

[Roll Roons]

Will NYT have a needle for the runoffs?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will NYT have a needle for the runoffs?

Nate Cohn hasn't said anything either way that I'm aware of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Hang in there, GM.  Only two more days!

[pppolitics]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Are there any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?

[Roll Roons]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Are any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?

There's no need. Reasonable bipartisan moderate suburban god David Perdue doesn't need to explain why people should vote for him. From Alpharetta to Dunwoody, Johns Creek to Lawrenceville, Milton to Sandy Springs, Buckhead to Marietta, people will see that name on the ballot and immediately be drawn to his magnetic reasonableness, allowing him to beat even Johnny Isakson's numbers. And his megacoattails will keep even weak candidate Qelly Loeffler in office with a similar landslide.

I'll show myself out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Are there any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?

There are plenty of mailers from the Perdue and Loeffler campaigns (sometimes from both campaigns jointly), but they're almost all negative, i.e. attacks on Warnock and Ossoff.  The Democrats' mailers that I get are a mix of positive and negative.  I get significantly more R than D mailers, probably because I live in Forsyth County.

[H. Ross Peron]

If Perdue backs the $2k checks, I'm voting for Ossoff. I don't see the point of voting R on the basis of fiscal conservatism if they're not going to even try to be fiscally prudent.

Fair enough, although you probably are in the minority with that opinion fwiw.
I would think a majority of the people would want the 2k stimulus checks.
At least that’s what the general consensus seems to be from what I’ve seen.

I realize most people want free money, but I'm still not convinced it's good economic policy. And while I somewhat understand the R calculation in supporting it, at some point, the party needs to stand by its principles. Do they really expect voters like me to believe they are a check on socialism if they can't even stand their ground on this? And they are never going to out-Dem the Dems on this issue either - I doubt voters are going to credit Perdue / Loeffler for a larger stimulus check when all the media has been talking about how it was Pelosi that really pushed it...

On the one hand, ForsythVoter is almost a caricature of everything wrong with American politics-the obsession with the Deficit (tm), the sweating fear at night that someone somewhere might get direct benefits from the State, the politics of aesthetic respectability that excused Bush and rejected Trump because of "decorum". On a purely visceral level, I suppose it disgusts me that that the Democratic Party is not an automatically hostile area for such voters. However, I suppose that voting for the right candidate for imbecilic reasons is superior to voting for the wrong candidate for imbecilic reasons.

[SCNCmod]

On the one hand, ForsythVoter is almost a caricature of everything wrong with American politics-the obsession with the Deficit (tm), the sweating fear at night that someone somewhere might get direct benefits from the State, the politics of aesthetic respectability that excused Bush and rejected Trump because of "decorum". On a purely visceral level, I suppose it disgusts me that that the Democratic Party is not an automatically hostile area for such voters. However, I suppose that voting for the right candidate for imbecilic reasons is superior to voting for the wrong candidate for imbecilic reasons.

Good thing everyone is entitled to their opinions... I am a Dem who is perfectly fine with ForsythVoter's approach, any day of the week- regardless of political views. But I am also one of those crazies who thinks "decorum" is an essential requirement to some degree (higher than Trump afforded)- in order to have a (lasting) democracy.

[SCNCmod]

Welp, got no update for ya'll today then. Rs are currently in about a 213k hole that is likely to grow as more mail ballots arrive.

What was the size of Ossoffs lead going into election day in the General?

Going into election day, Ossoff had a 127k vote lead, 2.007m to 1.880m. That was a 3.2% lead for Ossoff

Joe Biden on the other hand held a 230k vote lead, 2.100m to 1.870m. That was a 5.7% lead for Biden.

Thanks, this is exactly what I was looking for! (numbers from the General election)

[pppolitics]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Are there any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?

There are plenty of mailers from the Perdue and Loeffler campaigns (sometimes from both campaigns jointly), but they're almost all negative, i.e. attacks on Warnock and Ossoff.  The Democrats' mailers that I get are a mix of positive and negative.  I get significantly more R than D mailers, probably because I live in Forsyth County.

That's what I guessed.

Perdue and Loeffler don't seem like candidates that people want to actually vote for.

[SCNCmod]

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
...
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white


IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
...
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

I'm using super wide General Assumptions here.... but, if you suppose that the mail-in net votes is a wash (same Net votes as the General) for Dems ... and just look at the gain in net votes for Dems via In-Person EV (strictly using the gain in Black/White margin.... since race is the most consistent determination of votes in Georgia), you get:

536K Votes for Dems (Nov race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)
626K Votes for Dems (Runoff race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)

which is a +90K (Net) Gain for Dems.  So if the Election Day numbers were exactly the same as November:

Ossoff would win by 2,000 votes (since he lost by 88K votes in Nov).
---------
To me, this is in the ballpark of the best case scenario for Republicans- one reason of which, is it allows for the same number of people turning out on Election Day (as that total goes down, R's net less votes on Election Day, assuming similar R/D turnout model).

Based on the Nov breakdown (contained in the post ^2 above^ --- this hypo scenario does seem plausible as Republican's best case scenario, in which they would have an even shot of pulling out a narrow victory.  

Granted you would have to read many of the unknowns into R's favor. But this also requires the same level of turnout on Election Day as the General (this is where I think they will fall short, even in this scenario.  I do think the margin split will be similar to ED in Nov, And that the Trump rally/attention will cause turnout to be higher than expected next Tues, but- just not as high as Election Day).

[Matty]

Saw an interesting theory:

Parties only do well out of power AFTER a year or so into a president’s term.

In elections immediately following a loss, the losing party sees dampened turnout due to depressed voters who are dismayed

Remember: gop did poorly in December 2008 and early 2009 elections

[SCNCmod]

Saw an interesting theory:

Parties only do well out of power AFTER a year or so into a president’s term.

In elections immediately following a loss, the losing party sees dampened turnout due to depressed voters who are dismayed

Remember: gop did poorly in December 2008 and early 2009 elections

I definitely think this is true in general- as well as currently true for Republicans in GA. (and although it is not likely to get much better in the next 3 day... I never underestimate the power of Trump to turn out his base on a moments notice.  But I don't think it will happen this time- B/c I think the principle you mentioned above, will trump Trump's turnout power).

[ProgressiveModerate]

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
...
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white


IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
...
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

I'm using super wide General Assumptions here.... but, if you suppose that the mail-in net votes is a wash (same Net votes as the General) for Dems ... and just look at the gain in net votes for Dems via In-Person EV (strictly using the gain in Black/White margin.... since race is the most consistent determination of votes in Georgia), you get:

536K Votes for Dems (Nov race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)
626K Votes for Dems (Runoff race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)

which is a +90K (Net) Gain for Dems.  So if the Election Day numbers were exactly the same as November:

Ossoff would win by 2,000 votes (since he lost by 88K votes in Nov).
---------
To me, this is in the ballpark of the best case scenario for Republicans- one reason of which, is it allows for the same number of people turning out on Election Day (as that total goes down, R's net less votes on Election Day, assuming similar R/D turnout model).

Based on the Nov breakdown (contained in the post ^2 above^ --- this hypo scenario does seem plausible as Republican's best case scenario, in which they would have an even shot of pulling out a narrow victory.  

Granted you would have to read many of the unknowns into R's favor. But this also requires the same level of turnout on Election Day as the General (this is where I think they will fall short, even in this scenario.  I do think the margin split will be similar to ED in Nov, And that the Trump rally/attention will cause turnout to be higher than expected next Tues, but- just not as high as Election Day).

I think part of the issue is you have so many overlapping unknowns that the range of plausible outcomes is still pretty wide; if the statistics we had were more finite, that would be true, but we're making a lot of assumptions to get those numbers. A +5, even +7/8 result for either side still can't be completely written off, though the median outcome is that they will be close. I think of the range of plausible outcomes in these races as like a t distribution instead of a normal distribution.

[Matty]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

[pppolitics]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

This is a turnout election.

Polls don't matter.

Whichever side has better turnout wins.

[Roll Roons]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

Ah yes, the brilliant posters who respectively had Biden up by 16 nationally, up 17 in Wisconsin, Van Drew trailing by 5, and double digits undecided a couple days before the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Whatever happened to the AJC/UGA poll that was rumored to be in the field?

[Cyrusman]

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

Lol! Most of those if not all of those pollsters you mentioned are not good pollsters and had polls way way off the last 2 elections. Honestly Emerson might be the best of all those you names above.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1345472848828239875

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1345510138204008454