Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you break down GA by House district, you can see there is a strong correlation between how Democratic an area is and how high turnout is:

[Brittain33]

Funfact: More voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE have voted in these runoffs thus far than people who voted on e-day in the GE.

Seriously? I find that hard to believe. What are the numbers?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Funfact: More voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE have voted in these runoffs thus far than people who voted on e-day in the GE.

Seriously? I find that hard to believe. What are the numbers?

There are 104527 voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE who have voted in these runoffs

There are 96039 voters who voted on e-day in the GE who have voted thus far in these runoffs.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Kelly Loeffler does lose that would be the most pathetic senate career since Martha McSally.

[Brittain33]

Funfact: More voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE have voted in these runoffs thus far than people who voted on e-day in the GE.

Seriously? I find that hard to believe. What are the numbers?

There are 104527 voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE who have voted in these runoffs

There are 96039 voters who voted on e-day in the GE who have voted thus far in these runoffs.

Oh, I misunderstood - I read that as people who voted in the 2020 GE on E-day, total.

[prag_prog]

In the November Election,

Early Voting-
President: Biden +5.75
Senate: Ossoff +3.25

Election Day Voting-
President: Trump +22.15
Senate: Perdue +21.90

I found it interesting and also kinda surprising that Ossoff actually ran slightly ahead of Biden in the Election Day voting despite running 2.5 pts behind Biden in the Early Voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

In the November Election,

Early Voting-
President: Biden +5.75
Senate: Ossoff +3.25

Election Day Voting-
President: Trump +22.15
Senate: Perdue +21.90

I found it interesting and also kinda surprising that Ossoff actually ran slightly ahead of Biden in the Election Day voting despite running 2.5 pts behind Biden in the Early Voting.

The E-day vote was pretty much a wash.

Ossoff probably ran behind in the early vote because that was more suburban/UMC highly educated white heavy, i.e., never trumpers who don't want their taxes raised.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In the November Election,

Early Voting-
President: Biden +5.75
Senate: Ossoff +3.25

Election Day Voting-
President: Trump +22.15
Senate: Perdue +21.90

I found it interesting and also kinda surprising that Ossoff actually ran slightly ahead of Biden in the Election Day voting despite running 2.5 pts behind Biden in the Early Voting.

The E-day vote was pretty much a wash.

Ossoff probably ran behind in the early vote because that was more suburban/UMC highly educated white heavy, i.e., never trumpers who don't want their taxes raised.

Probably not great for Ds considering the runoff electorate will skew slightly more high-propensity/engaged voters when compared top the GE.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing I'm still not sure about is why did they wait till January to hold the runoffs? Aren't they usually in December (2008, 2018)?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One thing I'm still not sure about is why did they wait till January to hold the runoffs? Aren't they usually in December (2008, 2018)?

I think trump's recount sapped a lot of resources nessciating the delay.

[prag_prog]

In the November Election,

Early Voting-
President: Biden +5.75
Senate: Ossoff +3.25

Election Day Voting-
President: Trump +22.15
Senate: Perdue +21.90

I found it interesting and also kinda surprising that Ossoff actually ran slightly ahead of Biden in the Election Day voting despite running 2.5 pts behind Biden in the Early Voting.

The E-day vote was pretty much a wash.

Ossoff probably ran behind in the early vote because that was more suburban/UMC highly educated white heavy, i.e., never trumpers who don't want their taxes raised.

col-White share of EV electorate was 24% whereas it was 19% of EDay vote..so EDay still did have decent amount of Col-Whites vote. I think Ossoff performed better as we approached closer to the election...that's when he gained momentum, partly helped due to Perdue's gaffes.

[brucejoel99]

One thing I'm still not sure about is why did they wait till January to hold the runoffs? Aren't they usually in December (2008, 2018)?

A combination of UOCAVA & GA's lack of instant runoff voting for overseas & military voters like LA does with its runoffs.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Probably not great for Ds considering the runoff electorate will skew slightly more high-propensity/engaged voters when compared top the GE.

Well thousands of POC who didn't vote in November have voted in this runoff while thousands of low-pro Trump voters will probably be skipping so we'll see.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Have Ossoff and Warnock put out a schedule of where they will be campaigning between now and Tuesday?

Well they will both be in Savannah with Kamala Harris on Sunday and with Joe Biden in Atlanta on Monday.

I saw that Jon has events in Athens and Augusta in the next few days.

[SCNCmod]

Have Ossoff and Warnock put out a schedule of where they will be campaigning between now and Tuesday?

Well they will both be in Savannah with Kamala Harris on Sunday and with Joe Biden in Atlanta on Monday.

I saw that Jon has events in Athens and Augusta in the next few days.

Then hopefully tmrw and Saturday they are both hitting Central/South Georgia.  I think they could make the biggest impact at this point, hitting 4-5 Rural County stops both days. Its quick and easy to vote in rural areas- and Dems are usually undermotivated in these areas.  And 1 stop in a rural county creates a much bigger Buzz compared to Atlanta.  Getting low propensity Dem voters in the rural counties to actually turn out on election day could do a lot to keep the election day loss margin down.

[SCNCmod]

I've always thought the "visit every county"  idea is a really good strategy for Dems- regarding increasing turnout & in smaller and/or rural counties.  And it helps narrow the margins so that Republicans can't make up their losses in big cities by running up Huge wins in all of the rural counties.

Even for a last-minute turnout strategy, visiting a small rural county often registers in the neighboring counties as well.  So visiting 10 counties could actually impact Dem turnout in 20 counties.

[UWS]

So CNN - I’m serious, CNN -, the left-leaning news, Ossoff’s claim that Loeffler was campaigning with a klansman and rated that as FALSE. She didn’t who the man was and she would have removed him from the event if she knew. This is not the same as campaigning with a klansman. Politicians often take pictures with people they don’t know.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/31/politics/ossoff-loeffler-kkk-fact-check/index.html

And the reason Ossoff keeps launching such false attacks is because he wants to obscure his own record. He doesn’t have the experience to represent Georgia and he never had a job other than through the Chinese Communist Party as he worked with a company held by the Chinese gouvernement.

[VAR]

Did they fact check Kimgate as well?

[Catalunya]

So CNN - I’m serious, CNN -, the left-leaning news, Ossoff’s claim that Loeffler was campaigning with a klansman and rated that as FALSE. She didn’t who the man was and she would have removed him from the event if she knew. This is not the same as campaigning with a klansman. Politicians often take pictures with people they don’t know.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/31/politics/ossoff-loeffler-kkk-fact-check/index.html

And the reason Ossoff keeps launching such false attacks is because he wants to obscure his own record. He doesn’t have the experience to represent Georgia and he never had a job other than through the Chinese Communist Party as he worked with a company held by the Chinese gouvernement.

Why don’t you show us the billions of times when Republicans said something false including the incumbents from Georgia. Your claim about Ossoff is similarly false.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So CNN - I’m serious, CNN -, the left-leaning news, Ossoff’s claim that Loeffler was campaigning with a klansman and rated that as FALSE. She didn’t who the man was and she would have removed him from the event if she knew. This is not the same as campaigning with a klansman. Politicians often take pictures with people they don’t know.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/31/politics/ossoff-loeffler-kkk-fact-check/index.html

And the reason Ossoff keeps launching such false attacks is because he wants to obscure his own record. He doesn’t have the experience to represent Georgia and he never had a job other than through the Chinese Communist Party as he worked with a company held by the Chinese gouvernement.

Bold of you to turn around and then spread a false claim about Ossoff: https://www.11alive.com/article/news/verify/jon-ossoff-chinese-government-claims-debunked/85-09658a41-08b7-4682-abec-92b4c862c2ea

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JulesJester/status/1345013654996066311

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh, this means only 150.000 people voted early yesterday on the final day.

I expected more like 350.000 considering the long lines.

150.000 is actually not even the best early voting day.

With the mail ballots coming in until Tuesday night, early voting might end up shy of 3.1 million and the total vote incl. election day shy of 4 million.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ughhh, this means only 150.000 people voted early yesterday on the final day.

I expected more like 350.000 considering the long lines.

150.000 is actually not even the best early voting day.

With the mail ballots coming in until Tuesday night, early voting might end up shy of 3.1 million and the total vote incl. election day shy of 4 million.

The current total of the early voting numbers as shown in the tweet is 3,000,998.  I think exceeding 3.1 million is a pretty safe bet.

EDIT: To expand on that a bit...to make 3.1M, we only need 99,002 votes to be accepted out of the 315,655 outstanding mail ballots.  This should be easily doable, especially as there is some component of mail ballots already received but have not yet been processed; it's been reported that some counties (Chatham for one) have a big backlog of mail ballots outstanding.

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh, this means only 150.000 people voted early yesterday on the final day.

I expected more like 350.000 considering the long lines.

150.000 is actually not even the best early voting day.

With the mail ballots coming in until Tuesday night, early voting might end up shy of 3.1 million and the total vote incl. election day shy of 4 million.

The current total of the early voting numbers as shown in the tweet is 3,000,998.  I think exceeding 3.1 million is a pretty safe bet.

Not really.

Only 32k postal ballots were returned yesterday, with a declining daily tendency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

JMC has slightly different numbers:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1345002942424883200

Another thing to remember is that some counties (notably Fulton) did not have EV yesterday.