Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Tintrlvr]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

Easily sure. The GOP should hope for about 32% of the vote to be from e-day which is very plausible.

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

[SCNCmod]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

Based on the Counties, is this a small advantage for Dems or Republicans? (I'm guessing any time EV is open its good for Dems, regardless of the County?)

[Adam Griffin]

It's almost laughable how hard FoxNews is trying to completely smear Warnock- even saying that the reason Warnock does not have any events scheduled today is because he's hiding due to the "allegations that he ran over his wife's foot ...that came to light recently." (reality these have been out for a long time- and when examined, his wife's foot was perfectly fine).

In some ways it's not even a smart strategy for Fox.  If they are trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands, you would think they would target Ossoff... who polls indicate is likely to get fewer votes than Warnock.  I also think these over the top attacks on Warnock have only served to increase AA turnout.

Fox is even running this on their 6:00 News Hour.

In the words of opebo: "Warnock is a black, you see". If they can get their rabid audiences to care enough to turn out and vote against the scary black guy, they'll vote against the generic white guy as well. It's standard mobilization tactics: no need for persuasion here!

[SCNCmod]

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

Easily sure. The GOP should hope for about 32% of the vote to be from e-day which is very plausible.

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

I would have to disagree. First off, you have all the holidays going on which might cause some to put it off till the last minute and secondly, runoffs have historically had a higher share of the e-day vote. There are still a lot of people who voted in 2020 who have not voted yet in these runoffs which means there is a pretty wide plausible range of outcomes.

[Adam Griffin]

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

See my post at the bottom of the previous page. 35% is perfectly possible. Even with unprecedented conditions, there's a very strong correlation between runoffs and a higher share of vote being ED. For it to be substantially less would imply an electorate of 3,000,000 voters which seems very, very unlikely (for a variety of reasons, not including most voters have 1-2 fewer days of early voting in the runoff when compared to the GE).

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

This I do not know (I highly doubt a majority voted on Election Day). However, I am very confident that a disproportionate share of 18-29s voted on Election Day (i.e. maybe 30-35% compared to 20% overall).

One data-point I can provide is this: 3% of 18-29 voters in November cast their ballots by mail before in-person voting began (compared to 9% of voters overall).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

See my post at the bottom of the previous page. 35% is perfectly possible. Even with unprecedented conditions, there's a very strong correlation between runoffs and a higher share of vote being ED. For it to be substantially less would imply an electorate of 3,000,000 voters which seems very, very unlikely (for a variety of reasons, not including most voters have 1-2 fewer days of early voting in the runoff when compared to the GE).

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

This I do not know (I highly doubt a majority voted on Election Day). However, I am very confident that a disproportionate share of 18-29s voted on Election Day (i.e. maybe 30-35% compared to 20% overall).

I think the real question is if the E-Day turnout is higher than 32%, will it less Republican than in the GE, and if it's below 32%, will it be more Republican. E-day turnout AND the way it breaks are the 2 variables here, and it's totally possible for Rs to win with only 25% e-day vote if it broke heavily in their favor and for Dems to win with a 35% e-day vote if it did not break super heavily GOP.

Also, would like to remind everyone that these current partisanship numbers are estimated and not concrete.

[Adam Griffin]

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

See my post at the bottom of the previous page. 35% is perfectly possible. Even with unprecedented conditions, there's a very strong correlation between runoffs and a higher share of vote being ED. For it to be substantially less would imply an electorate of 3,000,000 voters which seems very, very unlikely (for a variety of reasons, not including most voters have 1-2 fewer days of early voting in the runoff when compared to the GE).

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

This I do not know (I highly doubt a majority voted on Election Day). However, I am very confident that a disproportionate share of 18-29s voted on Election Day (i.e. maybe 30-35% compared to 20% overall).

I think the real question is if the E-Day turnout is higher than 32%, will it less Republican than in the GE, and if it's below 32%, will it be more Republican. E-day turnout AND the way it breaks are the 2 variables here, and it's totally possible for Rs to win with only 25% e-day vote if it broke heavily in their favor and for Dems to win with a 35% e-day vote if it did not break super heavily GOP.

Also, would like to remind everyone that these current partisanship numbers are estimated and not concrete.

That's the gist of the question. A lot can probably be answered by an analysis of the black vote; how much of it is cannibalization from ED November voters turned off by the long lines they saw during the first few days of EV, how many are first-time/new voters and what percentages of D/R EVs from November have already early voted. I haven't delved too deeply into the data for the runoff, so those numbers may be available already.

[Cyrusman]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

Easily sure. The GOP should hope for about 32% of the vote to be from e-day if it were to break the same as in the GE, which is very plausible. The early vote numbers are good for Ds but this is still a knifes edge race as the e-day turnout could be a larger % of the vote compared to the GE and could be more Republican leaning as well.

So that poll published this morning about only 7% voting on Election Day has to be complete bullsh**t then?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Given that E-Day was only 19% of the vote in the recent GE, I have a hard time believing 32% could be realistic. In the same vein, of course, the JMC poll today that had E-Day at only 7% of the vote was equally unrealistic. We should expect E-Day to be somewhere in the range of 15-25% of the total vote - any more or less is extraordinarily implausible.

See my post at the bottom of the previous page. 35% is perfectly possible. Even with unprecedented conditions, there's a very strong correlation between runoffs and a higher share of vote being ED. For it to be substantially less would imply an electorate of 3,000,000 voters which seems very, very unlikely (for a variety of reasons, not including most voters have 1-2 fewer days of early voting in the runoff when compared to the GE).

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

Did the majority of Under 30s vote early or on election day in November?

This I do not know (I highly doubt a majority voted on Election Day). However, I am very confident that a disproportionate share of 18-29s voted on Election Day (i.e. maybe 30-35% compared to 20% overall).

I think the real question is if the E-Day turnout is higher than 32%, will it less Republican than in the GE, and if it's below 32%, will it be more Republican. E-day turnout AND the way it breaks are the 2 variables here, and it's totally possible for Rs to win with only 25% e-day vote if it broke heavily in their favor and for Dems to win with a 35% e-day vote if it did not break super heavily GOP.

Also, would like to remind everyone that these current partisanship numbers are estimated and not concrete.

That's the gist of the question. A lot can probably be answered by an analysis of the black vote; how much of it is cannibalization from ED November voters turned off by the long lines they saw during the first few days of EV, how many are first-time/new voters and what percentages of D/R EVs from November have already early voted. I haven't delved too deeply into the data for the runoff, so those numbers may be available already.

As for the black vote, this is part of the reason I believe my model slightly underestimate's D's current lead overall. In the GE, you had several black belt counties where the e-day vote was actually more Democratic than the early vote, so I suspect many of these counties may not have that same phenomenon again if the black vote skews earlier than in the GE, which is one reason to believe the GE vote could break more R than in the GE.

As for the new voters, it's really impossible to say, but looking at the Demographics and where they come from, I would suspect they net Democrats at least 10k votes; it skews younger and is minority majority, and they come from generally bluer counties.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

Easily sure. The GOP should hope for about 32% of the vote to be from e-day if it were to break the same as in the GE, which is very plausible. The early vote numbers are good for Ds but this is still a knifes edge race as the e-day turnout could be a larger % of the vote compared to the GE and could be more Republican leaning as well.

So that poll published this morning about only 7% voting on Election Day has to be complete bullsh**t then?

I mean, elections tend to be full of surprises, but below 10% seems very unlikely to me.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how McConnell thinks blocking the $2K aid will help Perdue/Loeffler. Warnock/Ossoff can continue to slam the GOP as out of touch, and the GOP not willing to give any more aid.

[brucejoel99]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

Based on the Counties, is this a small advantage for Dems or Republicans? (I'm guessing any time EV is open its good for Dems, regardless of the County?)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[wbrocks67]

Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

[wbrocks67]

Obama also cut a minute long ad for Ossoff. Can only assume there is a separate one coming for Warnock too?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1344365170450042881

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1344312062009372672?s=21
Even Newt is telling Mitch he’s f**ing up

[QAnonKelly]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Depends on the county

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obama also cut a minute long ad for Ossoff. Can only assume there is a separate one coming for Warnock too?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1344365170450042881

Great ad! And I appreciate the message of "be the nation's unf***er, Georgia! We will all make sweet love to peaches like Timothee Chalamet if you do!"

[It’s so Joever]

I am very impressed by Ossoff.
He is a young and certainly charismatic man.
I hope he wins so that he can build his profile more.

[Brittain33]

Not sure how McConnell thinks blocking the $2K aid will help Perdue/Loeffler. Warnock/Ossoff can continue to slam the GOP as out of touch, and the GOP not willing to give any more aid.

McConnell is more concerned about the sure bet of delaying economic recovery under President Biden vs. the maybe of helping Loeffler and Perdue with this $2k aid when it's not clear they will need or benefit from the move.

[SCNCmod]

Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

When Fox has played this clip- they cut it off after about 10-15 seconds.

[SCNCmod]

Obama also cut a minute long ad for Ossoff. Can only assume there is a separate one coming for Warnock too?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1344365170450042881

That was my question- Do you think Obama will cut a separate ad for Warnock- or will maybe Biden or Biden & Harris cut the ad for Warnock?

[SCNCmod]

Has Ossoff done a very good job of creating a buzz among young voters to EV or show up election day?

Seems like with $100Million and access to all of these voters via Instagram, Tiktok, etc ... Ossoff should be able to create some sort of hold your friends/ peers accountable (encourage them to vote) type of campaign that could be effective.

[brucejoel99]

Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

He crushed them.

Obama also cut a minute long ad for Ossoff. Can only assume there is a separate one coming for Warnock too?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1344365170450042881

Hopefully.

[forza nocta]

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks? McConnell may be the most hated man in America right now and relief checks have like 80% approval. Hammer it home that a “vote for us” is a vote for 2k checks, and that voting for the Rs mean more obstruction from Mitch, especially in the poorer rural areas. Ive seen tons of R voters angry over this, so it seems like a free gimme for Dems that they aren’t utilizing.