Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[QAnonKelly]

In today's mail: One bill.  One Christmas card.  Nine political flyers (7 of them glossy color 8x10 or larger).

My sister has a Christmas gift that’s been late in the mail and my mom called the post office to see where it was and the lady told her that it’s all the political mail clogging up the system.

So it'll be Purdue/Loeffler/Warnock/Ossoff's faults that scores of kiddos don't get their PS5's in time for Christmas??!

Okay.  NOW I'm mad. 

If I had a nickel for everything I got in the mail, I could buy a PS5 from a scalper rn instead of waiting till the Harry Potter game comes out next year like I’d planned.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

In today's mail: One bill.  One Christmas card.  Nine political flyers (7 of them glossy color 8x10 or larger).

My sister has a Christmas gift that’s been late in the mail and my mom called the post office to see where it was and the lady told her that it’s all the political mail clogging up the system.

I just got email from my electric company with this: "We are aware there are parts of the country facing 2-4 week delays in USPS mail delivery and we want to provide you with options to pay and/or receive your electric bill without delay."

Oof. That’s like Charlie Brown on Halloween.

[Pericles]

I know this is a British newssource, but I wonder if this is true. Is the issue of the Supreme Court getting a lot less focus in the runoffs? While the effect of the issue has been overstated imo, it would be weird if Loeffler and Perdue weren't warning about liberal activist judges being packed onto the Court.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/georgia-senate-trump-perdue-loeffler-b1775944.html

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how that Trump video helps Perdue/Loeffler. Ossoff and Warnock can easily say, see, even Trump wants you to have more than $600 - and so do we - but your current GOP senators do not.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Seems to be a somewhat widespread sentiment that if McConnell/the GOP knocks down a provision (or stand-alone bill) for $2000 stimulus checks, this "dooms the GOP in GA". 

Am I off for thinking that it wouldn't matter either way? Or, at the very least, that such a move by McConnell would not suddenly shift the race in clear favor of the Democrats?

In short, I can see a scenario where the sudden bluster around increased stimulus checks dies down and goes away, the original bill is signed by Trump, and both GA incumbents win the run-offs. 

Again, probably missing something or looking at this from the wrong angle. 

[wbrocks67]

Seems to be a somewhat widespread sentiment that if McConnell/the GOP knocks down a provision (or stand-alone bill) for $2000 stimulus checks, this "dooms the GOP in GA". 

Am I off for thinking that it wouldn't matter either way? Or, at the very least, that such a move by McConnell would not suddenly shift the race in clear favor of the Democrats?

In short, I can see a scenario where the sudden bluster around increased stimulus checks dies down and goes away, the original bill is signed by Trump, and both GA incumbents win the run-offs. 

Again, probably missing something or looking at this from the wrong angle. 

I don't think anything is a "game changer" per se, but given the razor-thin race we appear to have, anything somewhat substantial could swing it either way, and given Perdue/Loeffler raced to put out ads about the $600 checks and Ossoff/Warnock "obstructing", this is a bad look for them, and gives Ossoff/Warnock a way to "agree with Trump" and appear bipartisan

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Seems to be a somewhat widespread sentiment that if McConnell/the GOP knocks down a provision (or stand-alone bill) for $2000 stimulus checks, this "dooms the GOP in GA". 

Am I off for thinking that it wouldn't matter either way? Or, at the very least, that such a move by McConnell would not suddenly shift the race in clear favor of the Democrats?

In short, I can see a scenario where the sudden bluster around increased stimulus checks dies down and goes away, the original bill is signed by Trump, and both GA incumbents win the run-offs. 

Again, probably missing something or looking at this from the wrong angle. 

I don't think anything is a "game changer" per se, but given the razor-thin race we appear to have, anything somewhat substantial could swing it either way, and given Perdue/Loeffler raced to put out ads about the $600 checks and Ossoff/Warnock "obstructing", this is a bad look for them, and gives Ossoff/Warnock a way to "agree with Trump" and appear bipartisan

Hadn't even considered the last bit -- thank you, wbrocks. 

[roxas11]

I think trump comments will be a boost to the Democrats because now Jon Ossoff is currently tweeting stuff like this

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341581147327881216

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341597404051763200

The Dems message heading into the election will now be
"We support Trump giving 2,000 dollar checks to the American people"


Its very telling that so far the GOP candidates have not said if they back Trump on this
I think they are making huge mistake by being to slow to respond to Trumps comments and they are pointally letting the dems shape the narrative for many voters in GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rand Paul and Ron Johnson obstructed the 1200 but where was this Trump during the election that he messed up when he demanded ACB to be voted on before Stimulus, it should of been 1200

[VAR]

see display name

stimulus checks or bust

who cares about senate control anyway

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voters who didn’t vote in the 2020 general continue to grow as a part of the electorate. They’re disproportionately young and people of color.

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1341748587009589250?s=20

[wbrocks67]

I think trump comments will be a boost to the Democrats because now Jon Ossoff is currently tweeting stuff like this

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341581147327881216

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341597404051763200

The Dems message heading into the election will now be
"We support Trump giving 2,000 dollar checks to the American people"


Its very telling that so far the GOP candidates have not said if they back Trump on this
I think they are making huge mistake by being to slow to respond to Trumps comments and they are pointally letting the dems shape the narrative for many voters in GA

Yeah, objectively, I think Dems have done a great job at messaging so far in the runoff. Likewise, the GOP has not. They could've, but Perdue/Loeffler are just terrible candidates. Ossoff has really proven himself to be an A-tier candidate.

[compucomp]

I think trump comments will be a boost to the Democrats because now Jon Ossoff is currently tweeting stuff like this

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341581147327881216
https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341597404051763200
The Dems message heading into the election will now be
"We support Trump giving 2,000 dollar checks to the American people"


Its very telling that so far the GOP candidates have not said if they back Trump on this
I think they are making huge mistake by being to slow to respond to Trumps comments and they are pointally letting the dems shape the narrative for many voters in GA

Ossoff is doing exactly as I suggested earlier in this thread. This has to be a winning message. Right now just about nobody cares about the deficit or excessive government spending.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341769646685433858

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

I'm neutral on the deficit (I don't think it's inherently either good or bad), but I do think the stimulus could be targeted much more efficiently.  Do something like some European countries have done, i.e. compensate businesses for lost revenue *provided* they keep all their employees on the payroll.  Perhaps with slightly reduced levels of compensation and payroll (80-90%) to maintain an incentive to get fully open and back to work again, but that's a detail.  This would help a lot more than a blanket check to everyone.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

[Horus]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

[Alcibiades]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

The main issue with a deficit is long term - if you can’t pay off your loans, your credit rating goes down and you might not be able to borrow as easily in the future. But in the short-term, it’s not that big of a deal, and especially in the middle of a recession, a country is doing something wrong if it’s not running a deficit. (Also history shows that Democratic presidents tend to be much better at reducing or keeping the deficit in check than Republicans.)

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

The main issue with a deficit is long term - if you can’t pay off your loans, your credit rating goes down and you might not be able to borrow as easily in the future. But in the short-term, it’s not that big of a deal, and especially in the middle of a recession, a country is doing something wrong if it’s not running a deficit. (Also history shows that Democratic presidents tend to be much better at reducing or keeping the deficit in check than Republicans.)

Agreed on your first point. I think it's also not just about ability to borrow but the fact that we'll have to make interest payments on the debt we incur. Yes, we could (and probably will end up) borrowing more money to pay off this interest and this will delay the bill, but it will come due someday in the form of reduced spending power or higher taxes.

I'm not particularly partisan, so this isn't a Dem / Rep issue to me. Trump certainly didn't even try to reduce the deficit while he was President.

[forsythvoter]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

Well, as I see it, there are 3 options:

1) Government borrows more money to pay off the interest, resulting in ever higher interest payments. This just kicks the can down the road for options 2 and 3 below.

2) Government cuts spending or increases taxes to pay off the debt. I imagine both would be just as politically unpopular as the stimulus checks might be popular.

3) Government defaults on the debt or prints money to pay off the debt. See Venezuela for why this is a bad idea - hyperinflation, currency would become worthless, bank runs.

[T0rM3nTeD]

12/23 Update - 1.88M votes so far

Total of 679,209 (+58K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.340M (+9K) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 1,205,483 (+147K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 1,002,097 (+107K)
GOP - 882,595 (+98K)

Dems +119,502 (+9K)

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

Well, as I see it, there are 3 options:

1) Government borrows more money to pay off the interest, resulting in ever higher interest payments. This just kicks the can down the road for options 2 and 3 below.

2) Government cuts spending or increases taxes to pay off the debt. I imagine both would be just as politically unpopular as the stimulus checks might be popular.

3) Government defaults on the debt or prints money to pay off the debt. See Venezuela for why this is a bad idea - hyperinflation, currency would become worthless, bank runs.

I actually agree with you. But during times like these is exactly when we need to be running up the deficit and ignoring it as a concern. We'll do Option 2 when the recovery has finished. And we should have been doing so from 2017-March 2020 so that we wouldn't have to worry as much about the deficit/debt now.

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white

VBM requests now nearly a full point less white than the GE. VBM accepted continues to trend nonwhite, and with half in, is already nearly at the same + white as it was in the GE. In person continues to skew the other way, but we're nearing half the GE mark and still ~9% less white, so we'll see what happens.