Arizona megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Robson just seems very off to me. I don't trust her to be a conservative in even the same way Doug Ducey was. It feels like at heart she is anti-Trump, and is going to be a lot like the governor to our north if elected. Unlike Blake Masters, I'm not a fan of Kari Lake but she is the best option there is.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Great to see the McCain establishment going down once and for all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NYT calls it for Kari Lake, she wins all 15 counties while leading by less than 3%. Despite Katie Hobbs leading by 50%, she lost Santa Cruz county to Lopez. Blake Masters also lost Gila to Lamon.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1562282937915170816

Republicans have a stunning lack of empathy.

The homeless issue is getting out of control. It used to just be in Phoenix/Tempe, now you can start seeing homeless people near the overpass exit ramps of suburbs and even upscale ones. People moved into these places to get away from this type of stuff and now it is slowly creeping back. She's offering some help, but no we aren't going to be like California and allow homeless drug addicts to keep injecting themselves at the taxpayers expense (Luckily Newsom vetoed).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What a coward, it appears like she was actually felt intimidated by Kari Lake. Respect to Mark Kelly, he is willing to debate Masters at least.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

What is your view of the campaign situation in Arizona right now? Between Lake and Masters, who is running the better campaign and who has more enthusiasm from their supporters? And what about Hobbs? She decided to pull out of the debate with Lake, which I see as a foolish decision on her part.

In a vacuum Masters is running a stronger campaign, because he is at least pivoting to the general. Some Kari Lake signs from the primary have been taken down and replaced with new ones that have Trump-endorsed at the top. The thing is though Lake has a lower bar to clear since she isn't facing an incumbent and Arizona is redder on the state level.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

Is it possible for a Republican to lose Maricopa but still win the state? Trump barely lost it by 2 points and that was enough for him to lose the state even though he did well elsewhere.

Yes, but they can't lose it by much since it's still right of the nation. It would have to be like D+2 or less. If you take out Maricopa and Pima county Arizona is only like an R+16 state compared to when you remove Clark and Washoe county, Nevada becomes like R+39.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1567670782880530439

Looks like Lake wants to debate an empty podium Ossoff style.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Looks like the debate is still scheduled. Saving the best for last.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

Well yes, Kelly is an incumbent so I don't expect her to match his numbers. Arizona is literally freshly purple, so why would Hobbs be "running away with this"? Lake is a psychopath but she's not going to get blown out - anyone thinking that is being delusional.

Please tell me where Lake is running a good campaign. Once again, this thread is trying to convince me that even things like Lake spending $0 on TV is a good campaign move that is helping her.

There seems to be this very odd thing of giving Lake so much credit when in reality she's running a horrific GE campaign.

To add on to this, I would argue that not spending TV money is equally costing to her as not debating is to Hobbs. By not running the ads early, it really gives Hobbs a chance to define both herself and Lake early and the longer that happens the more patchwork Lake has to do.

Lake is already pretty defined. People have known her on the airwaves for years, and her stances on Trump are very clear already. If anything Hobbs needs to be making a case for why she should be governor besides "Kari Lake is crazy and I'm not her".

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1575893306487103498?cxt=HHwWlICjkZyn2d4rAAAA

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yet another opportunity for Hobbs. This is the most obvious example yet of Lake being two-faced. Hell, tie her to Walker.

She doesn't want to call her out. Debate is in less than 2 weeks but she can still RSVP.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1577814899056553985
https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1577839756783718400?cxt=HHwWgMCo-cS5zuUrAAAA
Katie Hobbs ditched the Hispanic Town Hall tonight

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA

I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

Yeah he brought it up in the debate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1580257293093912577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581483966397235200?cxt=HHwWgICqsbrSx_IrAAAA
Kari Lake and Blake Masters along with the rest of the statewide Republicans like Hamadeh and Finchem are running as a much closer ticket together than the Democrats. Kelly has pretty much distanced himself from Hobbs and his doing his own thing. Fontes also seems to be running a solo campaign. Hobbs does some campaigning with AG candidate Kris Mayes, but the Dem side just feels a lot less connected with each other.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Right now I think it's Lean R, but Hobbs is still very much in this and could def still win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Just recieved my mail-in ballot, I plan on voting straight ticket R obviously. If you are voting by mail make sure you mail it back by the weekend before election day. If you drop it off it will still be counted but a few days after the election (when the races are probably already called). There isn't much fun in that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

On that note, happy to see Obama is coming to do a rally for both Hobbs and Kelly on Wednesday

I'd be curious in a more modern day matchup how Obama did in AZ. He lost it pretty big in both 2008 and 2012, but 2008 he was running against McCain, and in 2012 Romney was still a great fit for the state. It also seems like since then AZ Demographics have generally shifted to be more favorable to Democrats.

I would probably say like R+4 or 5 assuming a generic R was running against him in a neutral year. Sunbelt suburbanites absolutely despised Obama, even with some suburban shift the guy just isn't liked for some reason. But I guess that was his trade-off for being so good in the midwest, you can't have it all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

Attorney general race is quite parrallel to the governorship. Hamadeh is a pretty good candidate on paper, Mayes is very sleepy unenthusiastic if you watched the debate. I think Hamadeh has the best odds to win compared to Lake/Masters/Finchem although Lake is catching up quickly.

Secretary of State has a lot less campaigning going on, from what I've seen. Finchem might be a weaker candidate, but on a night where Lake/Masters/Hamadeh are winning I think he joins them as well. I mean how many "pro-democracy" people are there who are voting Kari Lake but draw the line at Finchem?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/RealMarkFinchem/status/1587227996972322816?cxt=HHwWgMC4kYXd-...

Looks like Finchem is back on twitter after Elon Musk has reveresed the suspension.