Arizona megathread

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1562282937915170816

Republicans have a stunning lack of empathy.

No. They just don't want their streets to turn into San Francisco and LA. The homeless situation is a disaster in certain areas that are more "compassionate" towards them. People don't want their streets to be camping zones for homeless. It makes the city look dirty, and disgusting. Not everyone is okay with that, and if I had a business in an area where there were many homeless people I would gladly want my elected officials to " have a stunning lack of empathy"

[Cyrusman]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

[Cyrusman]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics. I do agree though Pheonix has always been more conservative than places like Denver and Austin and will likely continue to be more conservative for a variety of reasons. It was one of the last major metros that still net Rs votes until very recently (even Dallas and Houston metros net Clinton votes in 2016).

Just think about it logically. Moving is a huge deal that takes a lot of time and money. Most people just don't ahve the means to move even if they're very very unhappy with state politics. People only tend to move for work, family, or when they've moved signigicantly on the economic latter.

I mean I'm not saying they are overwelmingly Republican, but this notion that all migrants are going to skew Democrat is not accurate either. There has definitely been a number of right leaning Californians who have moved to neighboring states especially during and post covid and I know AZ is one of the main states they move too. These are probably more so So Cal people. Again not saying its highly skewed towards Republicans but I don't think by any means its skewed towards Democrats. Probably a wash at best and that was just in response to the previous poster assuming migration is automatically a plus for Democrats everywhere.

[Cyrusman]

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

Is it possible for a Republican to lose Maricopa but still win the state? Trump barely lost it by 2 points and that was enough for him to lose the state even though he did well elsewhere.

[Cyrusman]

Why did 538 give Hobbs such a big boost in their ratings the last two days? Is it literally just because of one poll by echelon insights showing Hobbs +10 which we all know is not true? If so, their method sucks and bases almost everything on these polls.

[Cyrusman]

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

[Cyrusman]

To think that Liz Cheney would have any impact in a AZ race is laughable. She doesn't even have impact in her home state. Republicans hate her and the only reason democrats "like" her is because she calls out the GOP with every opportunity she has. It's not even a Trump thing anymore either. She is very critical of the majority of modern day Republicans. This isn't a party of neocons anymore. Liz should really leave the Republican party and just become an independent.