Arizona megathread

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592643726538870785

Garrett goes on to say that there are about 6K votes left in Apache County, which are expected to be mostly tribal votes (heavily D).  If this is the case, he estimates Hamadeh needs about 60% of the remaining Maricopa votes to feel comfortable.

Cochise County dropped the rest of it's Ballots trimming Mayes' lead to 1,114 Votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Garrett Archer is taking the night off and says that Nicole Grigg (https://twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg) will be doing the Maricopa (and Pima) incoming tonight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Details of the Cochise County drop:

https://twitter.com/raghuAZPoliMaps/status/1592680945777528832

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/raghuAZPoliMaps/status/1592691967594754048

[Oryxslayer]

Maricopa dropped. Mayes still leads by 771 votes, without the daily Pima drop reported yet. So yeah, she'll probably be leading into the recount between this and the reservation vote.

Horne lead now at 8576.

[Oryxslayer]

What's left in Maricopa. While the number on the tin is 12K, the real number is likely closer to 3 or 4K between those that aren't going to be counted and the cured ballots not ever getting a high % cured without a targeted campaign like what's going on in CO-03.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1592577472742445056

Remember when Atlas peed its pants over this?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1592577472742445056

Remember when Atlas peed its pants over this?

I remember a certain poster here, with a name started with C, that seemed convinced this was how Hobbs was blowing the race.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1592344264536915968

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1592960497611345920?s=20&t=aJJ5Eij...

Cochise and Pinal came in before hand, which is why the margin has moved a bit.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like all the red counties (Pinal, Cochise, etc.) are basically exhausted. Apache, Pima, and Maricopa seem to be the bulk of what's left. Mayes should be fine, but I assume it will still end up <0.5%. Is it an automatic recount?

[Virginiá]

Looks like all the red counties (Pinal, Cochise, etc.) are basically exhausted. Apache, Pima, and Maricopa seem to be the bulk of what's left. Mayes should be fine, but I assume it will still end up <0.5%. Is it an automatic recount?

Indeed, yes.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like all the red counties (Pinal, Cochise, etc.) are basically exhausted. Apache, Pima, and Maricopa seem to be the bulk of what's left. Mayes should be fine, but I assume it will still end up <0.5%. Is it an automatic recount?

Indeed, yes.

Both this and the State Superintendent race are all but guaranteed for recounts. Not recounts in the state senate, but does anyone know how that 0.5% threshold works in the "vote for two" seats in the State House? Cause there's a few who could do it depending how the law is applied.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593033339543629824?s=20&t=4mzVY6P...

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593038680834605057?s=20&t=4mzVY6P...

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593040785439457280?s=20&t=4mzVY6P...

[wbrocks67]

WA/OR/CA/NV incoming!

Hobbs envisions expanding it — perhaps even mailing ballots to all registered voters, as now happens in a growing number of states.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/arizona-governor-katie-hobbs-2022-midterm-election/

[Dani Rose]

WA/OR/CA/NV incoming!

Hobbs envisions expanding it — perhaps even mailing ballots to all registered voters, as now happens in a growing number of states.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/16/arizona-governor-katie-hobbs-2022-midterm-election/

I'm all in favor of it, but it seriously needs to come with a massive expansion of the voting infrastructure as well. No more turning Election Day into Election Fortnight.

[CityofSinners]

This race reminded me of Trump vs Biden. One candidate is always in the spotlight saying crazy things while the other candidate is a bit boring and tries to lay low.

[HillGoose]

can someone tell me what "cured" signatures means? i dont understand it

[GeorgiaModerate]

can someone tell me what "cured" signatures means? i dont understand it

If there is a problem with the signature on a ballot envelope (doesn't look like a match, or they didn't sign their legal name, or missed a date, etc.) the county tries to notify the voter.  They then have a few days to come into the elections office and "cure" whatever's wrong with the ballot.  If they do so before the deadline, the cured ballot gets added to the pile to be counted.  If they don't, the ballot is invalid.

[Nyvin]

In the four counties that are 100% reported now, Mayes is breaking even with Biden's 2020 performance in La Paz, running slightly ahead in Gila and Yavapai, and running 7 points ahead in Greenlee.  (I know this isn't an exact science)

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.

Yes my bad for messing up the numbering. It seems like the GOP have too many potential liabilities to be able to hold the state legislature. The only remotely competitive seat that seems to be shifting their way is heavily Hispanic district 23 which takes in Yuma and some exurban Hispanic parts of Tucson and Pheonix. It voted for Clinton by 19, Biden by 13 but Dems only held it by 7 this cycle. It's yet to be seen how much of that was due to low Hispanic turnout and how much was due to fundamental shifts.

[xavier110]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.

Yes my bad for messing up the numbering. It seems like the GOP have too many potential liabilities to be able to hold the state legislature. The only remotely competitive seat that seems to be shifting their way is heavily Hispanic district 23 which takes in Yuma and some exurban Hispanic parts of Tucson and Pheonix. It voted for Clinton by 19, Biden by 13 but Dems only held it by 7 this cycle. It's yet to be seen how much of that was due to low Hispanic turnout and how much was due to fundamental shifts.

Ds losing a house seat in 23 is shameful. House would be tied right now. Ducey lost it twice.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1593094934898544640?s=20&t=hIkxcWr...