Arizona megathread

[Senator-elect Spark]

I'm glad Robson appears to have won. This is the best case scenario for the GOP to pick up the seat.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm glad Robson appears to have won. This is the best case scenario for the GOP to pick up the seat.

dim bulb

[MargieCat]

I'm glad Robson appears to have won. This is the best case scenario for the GOP to pick up the seat.

It's still unclear who the winner is.

Too many outstanding votes and Trump-aligned voters typically show up more on election day.

[Devout Centrist]

Now that it seems Robson has won

I don’t mean to come off like a dick, but it’s not over yet - this thing is gonna come down to the wire.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1554734791907364864?s=20&t=qT8-Mh_...

[SnowLabrador]

Who's going to win the primary at this point?

[Senator Incitatus]

Who's going to win the primary at this point?

I would strongly favor Lake but would not call it yet.

[Orwell]

Lake is now up by 12,000 votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She can't claim election fraud now since she went ahead like Biden, Robson is getting crushed outside of Phoenix so crossover D votes didn't mean much this time, because Robson was clearly ahead and obviously D's want Robson than Lake, huge loss for Pence who. Wants to run in 24

[Sir Mohamed]

So Lake is the nominee? I checked Wikipedia before I went to sleep yesterday night and she was down. Thought maybe she doesn't make it.

If so, Lean R -> Pure tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like the rest of the ballots will likely help Lake

https://twitter.com/jboehm_NEWS/status/1554819414083584001

[AZdude]

Assuming Kari Lake is the nominee, which seems like a pretty safe assumption now, this is going to be an interesting campaign.

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

And so that leaves me wondering, what kind of campaign is she going to run from here on?  Unlike a lot of people (Masters, etc), she could credibly moderate if she wanted to.  Even Robson kept attacking her as a "closet liberal."  The recent drag queen kerfluffle, where she attacked Drag Queen Story Hours and then was "outed" as having been close friends with a drag queen a few years ago, just goes to show how different she was not too long ago.

But does she even WANT to moderate herself?  Maybe she is genuinely nuts and not just spewing what she thinks the Trumpanzees want to hear.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Pollster]

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

[Spectator]

Republicans have done everything they possibly can to nominate  the worst candidates possible in races where they should in theory be heavy favorites to win. Arizona and Pennsylvania (gov and senate) being the prime examples.

I guess this same thing happened in 2010 in Delaware, Nevada, Illinois (Governor), and Colorado, so we shouldn’t be completely surprised.

[xavier110]

Assuming Kari Lake is the nominee, which seems like a pretty safe assumption now, this is going to be an interesting campaign.

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

And so that leaves me wondering, what kind of campaign is she going to run from here on?  Unlike a lot of people (Masters, etc), she could credibly moderate if she wanted to.  Even Robson kept attacking her as a "closet liberal."  The recent drag queen kerfluffle, where she attacked Drag Queen Story Hours and then was "outed" as having been close friends with a drag queen a few years ago, just goes to show how different she was not too long ago.

But does she even WANT to moderate herself?  Maybe she is genuinely nuts and not just spewing what she thinks the Trumpanzees want to hear.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

My hunch: She will not run away from any crazy position she’s already taken.

However, she will pivot and couch things with transitions like, “Stop asking me about such a controversial and personal issue like abortion and instead focus on the failings of the Biden administration at the border and at your pocketbook” yadda yadda yadda. She will also try to relate to independents and say she’s undergone a political evolution throughout her life and maybe even own the Obama vote, lol.

When asked she will still say 2020 was illegitimate and there was fraud and that reporters are the enemy and so on

[Utah Neolib]

Assuming Kari Lake is the nominee, which seems like a pretty safe assumption now, this is going to be an interesting campaign.

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

And so that leaves me wondering, what kind of campaign is she going to run from here on?  Unlike a lot of people (Masters, etc), she could credibly moderate if she wanted to.  Even Robson kept attacking her as a "closet liberal."  The recent drag queen kerfluffle, where she attacked Drag Queen Story Hours and then was "outed" as having been close friends with a drag queen a few years ago, just goes to show how different she was not too long ago.

But does she even WANT to moderate herself?  Maybe she is genuinely nuts and not just spewing what she thinks the Trumpanzees want to hear.  I guess we'll find out soon enough.

My hunch: She will not run away from any crazy position she’s already taken.

However, she will pivot and couch things with transitions like, “Stop asking me about such a controversial and personal issue like abortion and instead focus on the failings of the Biden administration at the border and at your pocketbook” yadda yadda yadda. She will also try to relate to independents and say she’s undergone a political evolution throughout her life and maybe even own the Obama vote, lol.

When asked she will still say 2020 was illegitimate and there was fraud and that reporters are the enemy and so on

Didn’t she already say that she will refuse to pivot the slightest bit for the general election? I recall seeing that somewhere.

[Devout Centrist]

I don’t know how you can pivot away from demonic possession, but I’m sure Lake will do everything in her power to deflect and change the topic.

[President Johnson]

Lake as nominee definitely makes a Democratic flip more likely, though I'm still somewhat worried over 2024 to be honest. It's kind of a high risk-high reward for Democrats.

Personally I'd rate this as Tossup or Tilt Republican now, down from Lean Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lake as nominee definitely makes a Democratic flip more likely, though I'm still somewhat worried over 2024 to be honest. It's kind of a high risk-high reward for Democrats.

Personally I'd rate this as Tossup or Tilt Republican now, down from Lean Republican.

I don’t think Hobbs has what it takes to flip the seat in this environment, but it’ll be close.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Great to see the McCain establishment going down once and for all.

[emailking]

Lake has claimed victory though no one has called it.

[Senator Incitatus]

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

Because of this alternate possibility, my guess is that her conversion is sincere. She is one of the many thousands whose eyes have been opened, to the chagrin and disbelief of Atlas posters, by government policy since spring 2020.

[wbrocks67]

??

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554944582500114432

[Spectator]

??

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554944582500114432

Seems like she’s pivoting very well

[Progressive Pessimist]

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

In reading what AZdude said, her entire Trumpist persona reeks of opportunism to me, and I think she figured it would be easier to appeal to the MAGA crowd. What she is doing is almost performance art. She is acting like a complete cliche of what she thinks the GOP wants. Granted, she might be correct in portraying herself as such since trump cultists are so easily manipulated. Say what you will about Mastriano in turn, but I think he is a true believer meanwhile. That possible phoniness of Lake ought to be part of Hobbs' campaign against her.