Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

[Devout Centrist]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

Extremism isn't unpalatable to swing voters anymore.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ. You'd expect both states to be relatively similar in their competitiveness in most environments, though low Hispanic turnout is more of a risk in AZ than PA where the Dem base is more reliable.

[Devout Centrist]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ.

I think the story is more complicated than that - yeah, Democrats have come a long way down here, but they're in free fall in non-Native rural parts of the state and there's still a risk that the Mexican-American vote could start slipping away from Democrats. Certainly it's a lot more competitive than it used to be, but I don't think comparisons with PA are appropriate just yet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

I think the main issue is the terrible political environment for Democrats coupled with uncertainty about how the race will actually shake out during the latter days of the campaign. Arizona is still a Republican leaning state, make no mistake. It's not Pennsylvania.

It's not PA, but in 2020 it voted less than a point to the right of it, and generally Rs have been gaining in PA while Dems have been gaining in AZ.

I think the story is more complicated than that - yeah, Democrats have come a long way down here, but they're in free fall in non-Native rural parts of the state and there's still a risk that the Mexican-American vote could start slipping away from Democrats. Certainly it's a lot more competitive than it used to be, but I don't think comparisons with PA are appropriate just yet.

Tbf non-Native rural AZ is a relatively small chunk of the states population and at least in theory suburban gains would easily offset that as they have.

[xavier110]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

Even if Hobbs ends up being a generic/sub-par candidate, how is Lake cruising in a state that is vehemently opposite of all of her nonsense?

There doesn't seem to be a rational here for a Lake win. Meanwhile, I don't see really anything but neutralness from Hobbs at this point, where other then not debating her primary opponent (which happens all the time), there really hasn't been much to either approve or disapprove of her campaign so far?

Those telling you Lake is some terrible candidate are wrong. That’s the issue.

She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.

Hobbs has sooo much baggage. She’s had no answer to the Adams scandal, has flip flopped on almost every issue, and has the personality of a wet paper bag.

I don’t see any way she litigates a case against Lake, who will slither around any critique.

Will this be a landslide? No. But Lake will probably coast along to a comfortable 4-6 point win is my guess.

The primary results on Tuesday will be fairly telling. If Lake does well in Maricopa beware.

[Devout Centrist]

She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.

I think you are too deferential to Lake here. She has the capacity to be astute, charismatic, and so on, but she also has baggage of her own and her past smacks of opportunism, too. I worry that Hobbs isn’t the best person to exploit these attacks, but there’s certainly no shortage of material for her to choose from.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is over Hobbs have lead in all the polls against Lake whom was supposed to be a shoe in

[xavier110]

She’s actually very astute, very conniving, and very charismatic. She is a loon and will say some nuts things, but she’s in no means a “bad” candidate.

I think you are too deferential to Lake here. She has the capacity to be astute, charismatic, and so on, but she also has baggage of her own and her past smacks of opportunism, too. I worry that Hobbs isn’t the best person to exploit these attacks, but there’s certainly no shortage of material for her to choose from.

That’s fair. I think I’m over correcting since I deal with a lot of Ds here (and by here I mean IRL, in AZ) who are casual political observers and act as if Lake is a sure fire loser.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1553527719157149697

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ah yes, the first thing that comes to mind when the average voter thinks about Cindy McCain (besides whoever her daddy was) - that she's a "globalist".
Kari Lake is speaking from the mind of the typical Arizona swing voter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This involves a county-level race, but it shows how far down the rabbit hole some of the election conspiracy nuts have gone.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1553813320485851137

[Senator Incitatus]

Ah yes, the first thing that comes to mind when the average voter thinks about Cindy McCain (besides whoever her daddy was) - that she's a "globalist".
Kari Lake is speaking from the mind of the typical Arizona swing voter.

You’re thinking of Meghan. Cindy is McCain’s mistress-turned-widow. Fun fact: They were set up by Jill Biden!

[ProgressiveModerate]

This will come down to turnout. I'm convinced if the entire 2020 electorate all got to vote right now Lake would lose, however, low Hispanic turnout could really doom Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake should ask Trump how it worked out for him when he bad-mouthed the McCains all over Arizona.

Also, can she stop with the weird glamour TV hits? It's almost comical whatever filter she continues using.

[Devout Centrist]

This involves a county-level race, but it shows how far down the rabbit hole some of the election conspiracy nuts have gone.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1553813320485851137

Richer really should consider switching parties - the invective is only going to get worse as 2024 approaches.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ah yes, the first thing that comes to mind when the average voter thinks about Cindy McCain (besides whoever her daddy was) - that she's a "globalist".
Kari Lake is speaking from the mind of the typical Arizona swing voter.

You’re thinking of Meghan. Cindy is McCain’s mistress-turned-widow. Fun fact: They were set up by Jill Biden!

Ah. Good catch.
That makes it even worse. Calling McCain's widow a "globalist" and all, doesn't look good.

[Politician]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.

I'm still confused as to how this is the thinking though? Lake is an extremist while Hobbs is a moderate Democrat incumbent in a purple state that is trending blue.

Extremism isn't unpalatable to swing voters anymore.

This. Swing voters vote on perceived "authenticity", not on ideology.

(Not that Lake isn't a problematic GE candidate)

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1553527719157149697

The art of the self-projection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is why Hobbs is ahead 48/40 but Sir Muhammad has been listening to Election Guy too long, Lake won't win

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the best thing Hobbs could do if either Lake or Robson wins the primary is run Fetterman style campaign exposing how both of them are disingenuous and very opportunistic. Lake prior to Trump was a very different person politically, and Robson keeps trying to play both sides when it comes to the Republican primary.

The issue is Hobbs personality is pretty flat but if she's smart she could use that to her advantage, especially against Lake

[wbrocks67]

A mess

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1554486148243677184

[Devout Centrist]

Robson up in the early returns; will be interesting to see how much eday favors Lake.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lake is DONE