Arizona megathread

[goin bezerk]

Guess who Pence just endorsed?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess who Pence just endorsed?

Even better: both Trump and Pence will be in the state on the same day (Friday) to rally with their respective endorsees! 

The Trump rally is the one that was originally supposed to be last week, but was postponed due to Ivana Trump's death.

[Utah Neolib]

Fun fact: Since 1990, with the exception of 2018, Arizona elected a governor to the opposite party of the incumbent president.

[Utah Neolib]

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.

The “third term of Ducey” attack would work way better for Robson than Lake.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.

The “third term of Ducey” attack would work way better for Robson than Lake.

Robson would be easy to attack generally cause she just has a very weak political compass. You can’t run on a campaign of being the “normal” and “sane” conservative while still feeding into all the bs. She’s always extremely careful with her words and it comes off as disingenuous.

Lake is just east to attack because she’s such a nutjob

[wbrocks67]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

Yeah that seems strange.

[xavier110]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

It is a little odd.

However, there is more than one contest on the D side.

 The sec of state race is contentious between Bolding and Fontes — there are SJW types coming to the aid of Bolding — though Fontes should ultimately demolish him.

There are also some competitive state legislative primaries in heavy D districts where winning here is effectively winning the general.

So Ds can make quick work of their ballot and turn it in: gov, sec of state, leg or congressional races.

Two factors could be driving the GOP turnout situation:

1) GOP base voters are now primed to only vote in person on Election Day. It’s a weird development since they had been steadfast mail voters for two decades and the R legislature made vote by mail to cater to their conservative geriatric base…

2) The GOP ballot is complex with a lot of competitive races, and voters are waiting a while to decide some choices.

It’s probably a mixture of those two reasons. I don’t know how someone could be undecided on Lake vs. Robson, but all polls have shown that voters know nothing about sec of state, attorney general, school superintendent, treasurer, and all the other downballot races.

Regardless, I sent my R ballot in for Robson, Brno (I probably should have gone McGuire at this point), Norton against Schweikert, and whoever else I thought was moderate or could beat the Trump-endorsed candidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact: Since 1990, with the exception of 2018, Arizona elected a governor to the opposite party of the incumbent president.

And 2018 wasn’t even that close

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I mean this is the first post-Dobbs primary in a competitive state (Marylanders probably weren't concerned with losing abortion rights).

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk of Robson being the more 'moderate' candidate, should be noted that she's essentially a 2020 election denier too

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1551552202237530112

[xavier110]

For all the talk of Robson being the more 'moderate' candidate, should be noted that she's essentially a 2020 election denier too

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1551552202237530112

I have confidence that she would certify a D 24 win and basically be Ducey 3.0. But she’s tried to have it every which way. At the debate she was the only one not to raise their hand about the election being rigged. Her craven triangulating hurts as much as it helps her though so I don’t get it.

[Devout Centrist]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

Republicans should close this gap by Election Day. It’s likely they’ll have more % turnout than Democrats once late mail-ins and Election Day votes are factored in. Does this tell us anything about what’ll happen in November? No.

[wbrocks67]

GOP gained, but Dems still have turnout advantage - 22% vs 18%. I'm shocked Dems still have raw vote lead as well.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1551998747713761280

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/LoganDobson/status/1553023624600330240?t=Nn0xCL-0amr8juwT_bR...

[SnowLabrador]

That's not good. Hobbs has to win.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

[xavier110]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Robson just seems very off to me. I don't trust her to be a conservative in even the same way Doug Ducey was. It feels like at heart she is anti-Trump, and is going to be a lot like the governor to our north if elected. Unlike Blake Masters, I'm not a fan of Kari Lake but she is the best option there is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

Shapiro is def better than Hobbs but what makes Lake better than Mastriano?

[wbrocks67]

Not sure where the proof is RE: "Dems floundering in AZGOV". Hobbs is rightfully letting the GOP primary take up all the news cycles.

That’s a generous interpretation of what’s going on. Hobbs sucks. The more Ds can wrap their brains around that fact, the easier Nov will be. I did my part by voting Robson, but it looks like we are on track for a solid Lake win and then her coasting to the governorship alongside Finchem and Hamadeh, lmao.

I may seriously leave this state. 2024 is going to be absolute chaos, and we may have state officials encouraging political violence.

The Ds who will perform the best are the incumbents - Kelly for Sen and Hoffman for superintendent of public instruction. They’re probably the only statewide races Ds will have a chance to win.

Even if Hobbs ends up being a generic/sub-par candidate, how is Lake cruising in a state that is vehemently opposite of all of her nonsense?

There doesn't seem to be a rational here for a Lake win. Meanwhile, I don't see really anything but neutralness from Hobbs at this point, where other then not debating her primary opponent (which happens all the time), there really hasn't been much to either approve or disapprove of her campaign so far?

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing I don't understand is why do folks assume Mastriano being such a bad candidate will make PA-GOV Lean D while Lake who is similar in many regards would still easily coast to re-election?

Anyways ye Hobbs optics haven't been great, especially after refusing to debate. Once this primary is over she really needs to step up her game.

There's a good chance Rs would lose the legislature in 2024 if Lake goes too crazy as governor.

Lake (bad as she is) is a better candidate than Mastriano, while Shapiro is better than Hobbs.

Shapiro is def better than Hobbs but what makes Lake better than Mastriano?

Perhaps I should have phrased it as Mastriano is worse than Lake.  They're both bad, but Mastriano has more strikes against him (association with anti-Semitists, J6 attendance, etc.) than Lake, who seems to be a more run-of-the-mill MAGA crazy.

Having said that, I definitely do not expect Lake to cruise to victory.  I think the race would be a tossup or tilt D with Lake, while Robson would be a slight favorite.

[Devout Centrist]

I'd say Hobbs is a mediocre candidate - better than Garcia, but she also comes with her own baggage. Her response to the Talonya Adams scandal was inelegant and it may foreshadow trouble dealing with negative press on the campaign trail. That being said, few people expected her to win back in 2018. If she can make this campaign about abortion + Lake's excesses and tie herself to someone like Mark Kelly, she has a decent shot of winning.