Arizona megathread

[Devout Centrist]

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

It's a very risky strategy to cede the airwaves to your opponent, especially when your own favorables aren't all that rosy. Not to mention that Lake's comments are garnering her negative attention in the Arizona Republic and in some local news reporting.

[Devout Centrist]

Another step on the long road to a sixth place finish in Iowa

[Devout Centrist]

You will have an "Alamo" with Hobbs come November. Lake has now more than an even chance to win this after being left for dead after the Primary. Hobbs refusing to debate Lake won't help her.

This is revisionist history ofc (Lake v Hobbs really hasn’t budged much since August and I’d argue most people recognized this race was a toss up back then), but the Alamo comment does catch my eye. The Texans lost the Battle of the Alamo, yes, but they ultimately won their independence in the end.

[Devout Centrist]

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  . I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Lack of attention and low name rec = GOP advantage (at least for the moment, anyway)

[Devout Centrist]

We have our first Lake ad:

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1574810453762404355?s=20

[Devout Centrist]

Jesus Christ, the polls are tied. You folks have set your expectations way too high for Arizona of all places.

[Devout Centrist]

Do we know why she didn't attend? This was not a debate, right? Because I remember reading that Hobbs would not debate Lake.

This is a stunt pulled by Lake. This isn’t a real town hall.

[Devout Centrist]

Bro all she had to do was go on stage, call Kari Lake a sussybaka, mic drop, and leave.

No, because Lake staged this event and stacked the audience with her supporters.

[Devout Centrist]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

[Devout Centrist]

Not sure I understand. Nobody - any Dem - is advocating for late term abortions. Democrats advocate for the right to choose what is best for yourself in your situation. I'm confused as to how you're not more upset with the GOP's extreme approach of banning it outright and taking the right away from people to make their own decisions.

you are talking to a brick wall

[Devout Centrist]

I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

Peak banter result would be Lake as Gov, but with Fontes as the SOS…feels like we’re headed here.

[Devout Centrist]

I was told Lake was running the superior campaign though?

Not sure why people on here are obsessed with Lake allegedly running some grand campaign when every stop along the way has been a total hot mess.

I wouldn't say she's running a good campaign, it's more like Hobbs has a steeper hill to climb than she does. Though stuff like this may come back to hurt Lake.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1581064083280826370

Think we may have pushed her too hard. Get ready for Dark Katie, folks.

[Devout Centrist]

Regardless, I don't think there's any chance of a blowout win by Lake.  As we've mentioned, she's making virtually no effort to reach out to the middle or moderate.  But all she needs is a plurality to get in there and wreak God knows what kind of havoc here.

This is true. There's a reason we have a recall statute.

[Devout Centrist]

Well, my family has filled out our ballots. Time to mule it up and stop the MAGA lunatics.

You have any inkling how they voted? I just dropped off my ballot yesterday.

[Devout Centrist]

It's interesting how mainstream she makes denying an election sound. This is how the right started with things like "building a wall" or the "muslim ban". It sounds insane but the more they say it, to some, it begins to sound rational. 

This is how Evil works, yes.

[Devout Centrist]

It's definitely in bad taste and not something I would have tweeted out. But the idea that it's "racist" to call attention to a very real thing that happened is a real stretch. And the article Gass shared was, as usual, ridiculous.

Given the state? Very racist my man. It's one thing if a generic white guy from Boston posts this (bad taste, racist, but not necessarily targeting), it's another thing entirely when someone from Arizona does it. Basically calling both Natives and Mexicans savages.

[Devout Centrist]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

This is Atlas, of course you can!

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1590010785283313665?s=20

[Devout Centrist]

How we feelin folks...

[Devout Centrist]

Liz throwing bombs. lol
https://twitter.com/Liz_Cheney/status/1592340964982808576

[Devout Centrist]

2026 Hobbs vs Yee. Book it. Yee is an amazing Candidate. Hobbs will have a huge problem.

Yee tried to run for Governor last year and flopped hard dude. Republicans didn’t want her.

[Devout Centrist]

Any update on this?

Right now, there are 3 counties that appear to have finished their recount and sent the results to the SoS (Apache, Gila, La Paz). Do we actually have those results somewhere, or will we only get them when every county is done?

Think we have to wait until all the votes are counted in order to get the final tally.