Is this the battleground map for 2024?

[°Leprechaun]

Georgia will most likely be an important swing state. Will it have as many electoral votes or more than Ohio? Perhaps it will replace Ohio on the battleground map.

[Gracile]

Ohio and Iowa are not battlegrounds.

[Frenchrepublican]

Georgia will most likely be an important swing state. Will it have as many electoral votes or more than Ohio? Perhaps it will replace Ohio on the battleground map.

GA won't be a battleground state very long.

[AGA]

FL, IA, OH should be Atlas blue.

[Hope For A New Era]

Now that it's clear that Trump brings with him a unique turnout surge, for all we know, Iowa and Ohio could suddenly become competitive again. 2018 certainly made it seem so.

As for right now, though, I think this is a good preliminary map. Pretty wide battleground.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Now that it's clear that Trump brings with him a unique turnout surge, for all we know, Iowa and Ohio could suddenly become competitive again. 2018 certainly made it seem so.

No. He brings a unique surge, but trends quietly continue behind that surge and in IA and OH, they have marched far enough to the point where I feel quite confident in saying that for the foreseeable future, they will not be competitive at the federal level except in Democratic wave years which happen under Republican administrations (or with hypothetical Democratic Governors/sitting Senators like Sherrod Brown).

[Figueira]

Is there a chance that Maine will lose a congressional district?

[Hope For A New Era]

Is there a chance that Maine will lose a congressional district?

Would be nice - we wouldn't have to worry about that district accidentally causing a 269.

[GALeftist]

Lol @ Iowa and Ohio. Gone for the foreseeable future. I also just don't think Texas is there. Honestly, I'm not sure how much I buy a competitive Nevada, New Hampshire, or Maine either. Also, I sort of feel like if Biden can't win Florida no one can for the foreseeable future.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It depends quite a bit on which candidates the GOP run who the Dems run if Biden chooses to sit it out.

But at the moment I think I'd take Ohio & Iowa off the battleground map. And though the final votes could end up changing my mind, I'm not so sure about Alaska either. Everything else seems fine.

Of course, a lot can change in 4 years. Who knew Virginia & North Carolina would move as much to the left as they did between 2004 & 2008? Or West Virginia swinging by 20% to Bush in 2000?

[Figueira]

Is there a chance that Maine will lose a congressional district?

Would be nice - we wouldn't have to worry about that district accidentally causing a 269.

That math can easily happen some other way.

[Real Texan Politics]

+ Minnesota, yes

This, only assuming a populist is the GOP nominee.

[BigVic]

33 day poll, IDK, but I am voting yes. If you vote no, what changes would you make?

Yep. Accurate

[Kuumo]

The map is accurate except that it should have Minnesota as a battleground state and Iowa and Ohio as safe Republican states.

[MT Treasurer]

OMG people are still clinging to the ‘pure Tossup elastic IA’ nonsense. Get ready for two more years of ‘Governor/Senator Rob Sand because there will be no Trump turnout surge/IA was a Trump state, not a Republican-leaning state’ takes.

[Frodo]

+ Minnesota, yes

This, only assuming a populist is the GOP nominee.

Which is likely. 

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Say it with me...

2020 👏 TRENDS 👏 ARE 👏 PERMANENT

[MT Treasurer]

This is my map:

Was considering moving NC to Lean R and GA to Lean D, but I’ll be generous for now.

[WD]

This is my map:

Was considering moving NC to Lean R and GA to Lean D, but I’ll be generous for now.

What are you talking about, man? Iowa should be Lean D if not likely D imo. Future Senator Finkenauer (who will crush Grassley or who ever is the R nominee for IA-SEN 2022 tbh) will help the Dem nominee win, with her multi election megacoatails. 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020? Yeah, those were all flukes. The IA GOP is done for in 2024. This time will be it.

tbh AZ is a better bet for the Republicans.

[Unimog]

I would trade MN for AK.

MN is a battleground, AK not...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget NC and Forget TX, NC Gov is probably going R in 2024,/TX isn't a battleground state anylonger. Beto and HEGAR were too liberal and caused D's to return to 2016 levels in TX

Forget it Ds aren't winning 413 EC votes, we have learned that lesson fr on 2020, and polling errors of oversampling too many Latinos in TX

ME 2 goes back D since Angus King or he retires some D runs for that seat, My hunch is King retires and allows a fellow D to run

[jamestroll]

States I am most unsure of are WI, MI, PA and NC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States I am most unsure of are WI, MI, PA and NC.

.NC Gov is going R, in 2024, Rick Scott is vulnerable in 2024, PA isn't a Tossup due to Bob Casey Jr,  ME2 is Lean D due to fact Angus King will turn it back blue again in 2024, he is up for reelection

Tammy Baldwin, Stabenow and Sherrod Brown are all up in 2024, making OH, a Tossup and WI and MI solid Blue

[pbrower2a]

If Iowa and Ohio are no longer battlegrounds, then neither is Maine, Minnesota, nor New Hampshire based on final results.

Rule out any state decided by 10% or less, and all that changed from 2016 was that Colorado, Maine,  and New Mexico are no longer battleground states. 

The most that can be the same in 2024 as in 2020 will be President Biden as the Democratic nominee. Trump will not be, and the Republican Party will nominate someone with significant experience in elective office (most likely a sitting Senator or Governor) or high-level government administration (from the years of Dubya? Trump's administration was just too chaotic). 

[MillennialModerate]

Texas isn’t there yet. I’ll believe it when I see it

What would take you believing it?

The O’Rourke/Cruz senate race was within 2 points.

If Dems held latinos then Texas would’ve been 3-4 points in a Dem +5.5 year