Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Mike88]

48.01% counted:

62.55% Reject (3,738,828)
37.45% Approve (2,238,778)

[jaichind]

Just eyeballing the results by region and comparing them to the Boric 2021 vote I think it will end up around 40/60

[Lumine]

It is over, and the margins are unbelievable. They seem to be going towards the utter best case for Reject (which is indeed 60-40).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Only really followed the debate from afar, but it didn't seem a good sign for the approve side that (from what I understand, willing to be corrected) the left wing governing parties had to rush out a set of proposals saying where they'd clarify and amend the constitution in a bunch of places if it passed.

[Mike88]

72.19% counted:

62.20% Reject (5,672,783)
37.80% Approve (3,447,865)

[Isaak]

Wow. What an utter humiliation for Approve.

[Mike88]

88.08% counted:

62.00% Reject (6,944,426)
38.00% Approve (4,256,165)

75.42% Turnout (11,443,193)

[Red Velvet]

That victory margin for Reject seems higher than the margin I expect Bolsonaro to be defeated in the runoff here, so it does seem quite bad indeed!

[njwes]

I'm surprised at the abstention rate (currently ~20%) given that voting was mandatory--can any Chileans comment on this? I'm most curious about, will all of those people really be fined? It seemed like a pretty hefty amount to be charged.

[Mike88]

95.87% counted:

61.92% Reject (7,563,786)
38.08% Approve (4,651,092)

82.25% Turnout (12,480,808)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well done to President Chapo Trap House.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does anyone have an english language text of the rejected counstition ?

[Mike88]

Boric is going to propose a restart of the Constitutional process. Tomorrow, he will meet with the leaders of Congress and in the next few days, with party leaders.

A cabinet reshuffle is also in his plans.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/DerLionHeart/status/1566590715236433923?s=20&t=43pg36sKF...

[Mike88]

99.74% counted:

61.87% Reject (7,868,384)
38.13% Approve (4,848,515)

85.64% Turnout (12,994,410)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL. I'll refrain from calling this a positive or negative development since I don't live in Chile and aren't affected by it but the President Of r/LateStageCapitalism getting humiliated is funny.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Only really followed the debate from afar, but it didn't seem a good sign for the approve side that (from what I understand, willing to be corrected) the left wing governing parties had to rush out a set of proposals saying where they'd clarify and amend the constitution in a bunch of places if it passed.

What kind of country would have to go around promising a bunch of future changes to get a constitution ratified, that's ridiculous!

--

For the record I haven't followed any of this and have no meaningful sense of how I would have voted in the referendum.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What a f**king disgrace. Chile had a chance at real, structural change and they took a piss on it because "muh I don't like the incumbent". Italy 2016 all over again, I guess (except even worse because the problems with the Chilean constitution are worse).

Given the landslide it lost by, I realy doubt it was just that. Reading through what Info I could find, it does seem that the left feeling embolded decided to put every single one of their wish-lists onto the counstition hoping to enshrine it in perpetuity.

[Oryxslayer]

What a f**king disgrace. Chile had a chance at real, structural change and they took a piss on it because "muh I don't like the incumbent". Italy 2016 all over again, I guess (except even worse because the problems with the Chilean constitution are worse).

Given the landslide it lost by, I realy doubt it was just that. Reading through what Info I could find, it does seem that the left feeling embolded decided to put every single one of their wish-lists onto the counstition hoping to enshrine it in perpetuity.

That is true. In doing so they set up a partisan confrontation between the Left, who would desire want everything there, and the Right, who would oppose everything. Which means that the chief leaders of the partisan debate would define that partisan confrontation.

Boric is obviously the leader of the Approve/Left side. But who leads the Reject/Right? There is no second president. It is the midterm situation where the opposition is an amorphous blob that you can fill with whatever you imagine is best. Only when that opposition is personified by a single opposition person or institution seizes the spotlight does it then become a confrontation of wills similar to a normal national contest. And that is when you can overcome a 35% approval rating.

[DL]

This reminds me a bit of what happened in Canada in 1992 when we had a referendum on constitutional accords called the Charlottetown Accord and it was voted down. The thing about a constitutional referendum is that a constitution typically has hundreds (if not thousands) of individual clauses and provisions in an attempt to please every stakeholder under the sun. The problem is that for a voter to vote yes they have to agree with 100% o the what is being proposed and for a voters to vote no they can like 99% of what is in the constitution, but if there is so much as one thing in it that they don't like - they vote no. and as the old saying goes "the perfect becomes the enemy of the good" 

[Lumine]

A few notes on the future to end the day:

-Government parties are due to meet with the President tomorrow, to discuss their collective stance (and possibly to reflect on what just happened). The President is also due to meet with the Presidents of the Senate (Elizalde -PS) and Chamber of Deputies (Soto - PPD) to address how to move forward.

-Chile Vamos (UDI, RN and Evopoli) will also meet tomorrow to discuss the results and their future joint position on the process.

-A cabinet reshuffle is coming this week, perhaps early on. President Boric is likely to be forced to remove key ministers Izkia Siches (Interior) and Giorgio Jackson (SEGPRES) due to previous mistakes and the latter becoming toxic to Congress - his job being precisely to coordinate between La Moneda and Congress -, and an undetermined number of ministers perceived to be vulnerable are also likely to go. Siches and Jackson are very important to Boric - symbolically for Siches, a historical friendship with Jackson - so the rumor is that they're likely to be shuffled into different roles (possible Health for Siches, Social Development for Jackson).

-After all of this is done, the opposition is then due to meet with the President as talks move forward.

-Rumor has it that private talks are heading towards a new Constitutional Convention, elected under different rules and with a shorter mandate (so as to end the process around this time next year). I think it's mentioned before, but such a Convention is likely to restrict joint lists for independent candidates, possibly elect delegates by regional - or a national - districts, perhaps with a party-list system. The opposition appears likely to retain gender parity and a different scheme for indigenous seats (extra seats depending on turnout rather than total population). Changing the rules from the previous one is likely to encounter heavy resistance from some in the left, so we'll see.

So... yeah. This isn't over, the process continues, and it is likely that the country could well be voting on a different new text in 2023. Hopefully the same mistakes - and there were many - will not be made this time.

[crals]

Oof. With such a high rejection rate and Boric's unpopularity, is there really any hope of any proposal for a new constitution being approved?

[Mike88]

So... yeah. This isn't over, the process continues, and it is likely that the country could well be voting on a different new text in 2023. Hopefully the same mistakes - and there were many - will not be made this time.

I have my doubts that the same mistakes will not be made, Lumine. The result was a massive blow for Approve, in fact, the 62% of reject was closer to a 2/3 majority than Approve actually winning by a hair. This is just my opinion, feel free to discuss it and disagree with it, but I believe that the best course of action would be to pick up the 1980 constitution and initiate a complete and total makeover of it. Initiating a new Convention would create divisions, discussions that have nothing to do with the Constitution itself and create noise that would led, probably, to the same mistakes made that culminated in this result. Take a cue from my country: our original 1976 constitution was an ideological mess, but during the 80's, basically all of the ideological rhetoric was removed, tons of articles and limitations were changed/removed that completely changed the tone of the original text.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever hand-wringing you want to do about the proposed constitution being a woke wishlist or whatnot, the simple truth is that today Pinochet is laughing in his grave. I'm sure that's gonna please some people here, but hopefully none of the red avatars.

I really want to hope Lumine is right and a more modest constitutional reform still has a chance to go through, but at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Whatever hand-wringing you want to do about the proposed constitution being a woke wishlist or whatnot, the simple truth is that today Pinochet is laughing in his grave. I'm sure that's gonna please some people here, but hopefully none of the red avatars.

I really want to hope Lumine is right and a more modest constitutional reform still has a chance to go through, but at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, before this is anything else it’s the greatest self-inflicted wound the Chilean left has ever seen since the return to democracy, if not in its history. If the result had been more aligned with the polls, something like 55-45, we could chalk that up to the effects of fake news and misinformation or say that the proposal would have had majority approval if they’d just made XYZ changes to the text or if the campaign had just not been stupid and alienating (although of course the media is partly to blame in amplifying the voices of certain people over others in the debate). But my God, this is an absolute, society-wide rejection that shows how brutally out of touch the devotees of Apruebo were. There’s no excuse. It’s not hand-wringing, it’s acknowledging that an overwhelming majority of Chileans across every part of society did not like this and did not want it.

But acting like this means 62% of people support Pinochet and his constitution - and I don’t think you’re doing this, I know you’re smarter than that, but I have seen many reacting in that way - is precisely the attitude that demonstrates just how out of touch Apruebo was as a whole in misunderstanding why many people, including many on the left, simply did not like this proposal. Furthermore, it’s exactly what Kast, Rojo Edwards, Gonzalo de la Carrera et al. want you to think. I have no doubt that many voted Rechazo precisely because they believed that a new constitution was inevitable and the process would still continue, and that if the vote had been strictly between the old and new constitutions it would have been much closer and the new one may have won. But for many, many reasons - some reasonable, some rooted in fake news, some racist, etc. - many people of all ideological stripes did not want this specific proposal to be Chile’s constitution.

In conclusion, the Lista del Pueblo and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.