Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Oryxslayer]

This referendum and Constitution seems to be following that famous motto: Everything changes, just for everything to stay the same.

I mean it didn't have to be this way. But once it became Boric v Kast this became the likeliest outcome. Kast would do something authoritarian and prevent it from going through. Boric would naturally see his approvals fall - like almost every national leader in a multiparty two-round runoff environment - and the referendum would fail to pass as it becomes a glorified opinion poll.

[kaoras]

Boric is shamelessly campaigning for Approve in Cadena Nacional (televised address to all tv station) right now. Which well, is not going to help to separate his government from the Approve option. Is a good address though.

[jaichind]

Criteria poll has draft constitution approve/reject at 31/48

[Lumine]

Some additional movement today:

-Former President Lagos publishes a letter, declining to back either option. Is critical of both the current constitution and the proposed one, calls to continue the process regardless of the result. Significantly, does not back Approve like some predicted he might end up doing despite his doubts.

-Parisi's PDG holds an online vote, 91% backs Reject. Not much of a surprise there, but still a factor.

-Perhaps due to Lagos providing symbolic cover, a number of center-left politicians also announce support for Reject today, including Oscar Landerretche, Javiera Parada, Felipe Harboe and Andrés Velasco. Most of these names are not necessarily a surprise, Landerretche is perhaps the most significant one in so far as there's an apparent taboo within the PS for anyone to stray away from Approve.

So... not the best day for Approve - particularly due to Lagos - in terms of public discourse, with the caveat that it's not necessarily clear (indeed there are reasons to dobut) that these names actually move any significant amount of votes.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The economist weighs in calling the draft counstinuion overbroad and "woke". Tbh i'm skeptical of the ability for counstitions to safeguard much, The Indian counstitions claims the state is a socialist one but it hasn't stopped the far-right from rising up.


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/07/06/voters-should-reject-chiles-new-draft-constitution

[Estrella]

The economist weighs in calling the draft counstinuion overbroad and "woke". Tbh i'm skeptical of the ability for counstitions to safeguard much, The Indian counstitions claims the state is a socialist one but it hasn't stopped the far-right from rising up.


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/07/06/voters-should-reject-chiles-new-draft-constitution

Not surprising that they're rejecting it, but some of the arguments ("woke", "excessively progressive") are telling. I'm not sure if The Economist ever was the eclectic, imaginative - if sometimes myopic - liberal magazine I thought it to be. Perhaps it was, but it's pretty clear it's turned into yet another generic right-wing outlet like WSJ or the ToryTelegraph. _{Case in point: one of their editors also wants to go full Aktion T4 on trans people. But let's not derail this thread even more.}

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The economist weighs in calling the draft counstinuion overbroad and "woke". Tbh i'm skeptical of the ability for counstitions to safeguard much, The Indian counstitions claims the state is a socialist one but it hasn't stopped the far-right from rising up.


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/07/06/voters-should-reject-chiles-new-draft-constitution

Not surprising that they're rejecting it, but some of the arguments ("woke", "excessively progressive") are telling. I'm not sure if The Economist ever was the eclectic, imaginative - if sometimes myopic - liberal magazine I thought it to be. Perhaps it was, but it's pretty clear it's turned into yet another generic right-wing outlet like WSJ or the ToryTelegraph. _{Case in point: one of their editors also wants to go full Aktion T4 on trans people. But let's not derail this thread even more.}

Certainly not in that sense, seeing as they were always fairly supportive of Pinochet’s regime at the time as I recall. They’re very much a magazine of economic liberalism rather than social liberalism.
(Their editorial line endorsed Provoste of all people last year and decried Kast and Boric as equally extreme)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The economist weighs in calling the draft counstinuion overbroad and "woke". Tbh i'm skeptical of the ability for counstitions to safeguard much, The Indian counstitions claims the state is a socialist one but it hasn't stopped the far-right from rising up.


https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/07/06/voters-should-reject-chiles-new-draft-constitution

Not surprising that they're rejecting it, but some of the arguments ("woke", "excessively progressive") are telling. I'm not sure if The Economist ever was the eclectic, imaginative - if sometimes myopic - liberal magazine I thought it to be. Perhaps it was, but it's pretty clear it's turned into yet another generic right-wing outlet like WSJ or the ToryTelegraph. _{Case in point: one of their editors also wants to go full Aktion T4 on trans people. But let's not derail this thread even more.}

Certainly not in that sense, seeing as they were always fairly supportive of Pinochet’s regime at the time as I recall. They’re very much a magazine of economic liberalism rather than social liberalism.
(Their editorial line endorsed Provoste of all people last year and decried Kast and Boric as equally extreme)

The magazine has moved considerably left since then.

[Conservatopia]

I was very surprised and slightly disappointed to see the Economist use the phrase "woke".

That being said all their arguments were true and the new constitution is a hideous abomination. Anyway that's my opinion, not that it counts.

On a more interesting note the Economist also had a piece that showed that, if adopted, the Chilean constitution will be the world's longest in word count. The magazine also stated that there has been a trend towards wordier constitutions in recent years.

Monaco has the world's shortest constitution at less than 4000 words.

[kaoras]

I was very surprised and slightly disappointed to see the Economist use the phrase "woke".

That being said all their arguments were true and the new constitution is a hideous abomination. Anyway that's my opinion, not that it counts.

On a more interesting note the Economist also had a piece that showed that, if adopted, the Chilean constitution will be the world's longest in word count. The magazine also stated that there has been a trend towards wordier constitutions in recent years.

Monaco has the world's shortest constitution at less than 4000 words.

That's absolutely not true, in fact is not even that much longer than the current constitution.

What I find baffling about the Economist arguments, outside finding funny some of the hideous things they hate like a "healthcare service from birth to tumb" is that they say that the old constitution works. Have they not been paying attention to anything all since 2019?

This is exactly why all of this will end up with the country burned to the ground again once the Reject for reform /for something "better" farse collapses on itself

[Mike88]

It seems that Boric has said that if the "No" side wins the referendum, he will call for a new Constituent Assembly to write a new draft Constitution.

https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/si-en-el-plebiscito-triunfa-el-rechazo-boric-convocara-a-una-nueva-constituyente-2022717101335

[kaoras]

It seems that Boric has said that if the "No" side wins the referendum, he will call for a new Constituent Assembly to write a new draft Constitution.

https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/si-en-el-plebiscito-triunfa-el-rechazo-boric-convocara-a-una-nueva-constituyente-2022717101335

Yes, this caused much outcry in the political world, but real people don't really care. CADEM says 74% agrees with that.

That of course, would be a total s***show from beginning to end. For starters, they would have to reform the current constitution again to allow for a new constituent proccess. That would be the left's choice, but the Right would prefer to leave "reforms" to congress with a lower quorum (4/7). Some have floated some vague ideas such as an assembly of experts (chosen by whom? according to what?). Now of course, every person with knowledge of Chilean Politics and two functioning brain cells _{(which mind you, it appears to be less than half of the electorate)} would know that the Right, emboldened by a Reject vote, would change absolutely nothing relevant and most likely nothing at all.

A new Convention would be an atrocious stalemate since the right would win those elections without much trouble, but the left (excluding DC and the usual suspects) would also get a third of the seats.

So in the likely escenario that Rejects wins, political crisis and stalemate is the only foreseeable conclusion.  

[kaoras]

BTW, the DC decided to back Approve and is tearing itself apart. Senator Francisco Huenchumilla really wants to split the party and some party members denounced to their Supreme Tribunal all of their figures that are supporting Reject (Such as Ximena Rincón, ex President Eduardo Frei, ex conventional Fuad Chain, etc etc)

[kaoras]

Bachelet is in Chile and met with Boric after reiterating his support for Approve (She is the only ex-president explicitly endorsing that option). It's been rumored that she came here to record ads for the PS' franja electoral

Regarding the campaign... if there are rational arguments for Reject, I have not heard them. All of Reject campaign consists of lies, lies, lies and more lies. Just got a Youtube Ad saying the new constitution was going to expropriate your house and your pension funds.

[Peeperkorn]

Regarding the campaign... if there are rational arguments for Reject, I have not heard them.

Here's one:

90 pages for a Constitution.

That's scary.

[kaoras]

Regarding the campaign... if there are rational arguments for Reject, I have not heard them.

Here's one:

90 pages for a Constitution.

That's scary.

Like the 127 pages of the current Constitution? You could unironically work for the Reject campaign.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Regarding the campaign... if there are rational arguments for Reject, I have not heard them.

Here's one:

90 pages for a Constitution.

That's scary.

That's a "WHY DIDN'T BACKBENCH CONGRESSMAN #7 READ THE 3,000-PAGE OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL???"-tier "argument", Peeperkorn.

[kaoras]

Honestly, the faint hope I have is that there's backslash to all the fake news and lies of the Reject Campaign (Because no, is not maroon avatar being biased, just as I told you that Kast was doing great on the debates of the first round or that Jadue sucked, I'm only talking about reality, I have never been so disgusted by a campaign before) I have seen some of that but I don't really have faith in this country.

[PSOL]

The tying of the constitutional plebiscite to this disaster of an administration is why it will fail.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Regarding the campaign... if there are rational arguments for Reject, I have not heard them.

Here's one:

90 pages for a Constitution.

That's scary.

Long time no see!

[kaoras]

The tying of the constitutional plebiscite to this disaster of an administration is why it will fail.

That's a factor but I would say is not really decisive. Is more of a problem for Boric than for Approve itself. Boric is going to be made a lame-duck but at the same time, is not like he has a choice. His political base, both in Congress and in the electorate, would never forgive him if he hadn't committed deeply to Approve.

And it should be noted that the left has stuck with him, which is why in opinion polls (save for Activa) his approval has stubbornly remained above a floor of 30-35%. And has stuck with him, despite not doing much, precisely because of the plebiscite.

[kaoras]

Latest polls:

UDD: Approve 38 (+2) Reject 50 (+4)
Activa: Approve 30,1 (+2) Reject 46 (-0,3)| LV: Approve 45,8 (+1,5) Reject 54,2 (-1,5)
CADEM : Approve 39 (+2) Reject 47 (-5)

CADEM also has Boric approval up to 40% (55% disapproval)

Despite the different numbers, both CADEM and Activa have consistent trends in favour of Approve since the beginning of the campaign. But there's still a long way to go.

[kaoras]

Miscelanous updates:

The government hasn't been exactly subtle on its support for Approve nor in the fact that they are de facto leading the campaign, so Contraloría announced an "special team" to investigate "electoral interventionism".

Pedro Pool, an Osorno businessmen also known as the "Chilean Milei", said in an online show that if Approve wins, he is going to create "armed resistance groups" that will kill more than the number of people killed by Pinochet and that the exiles would be sent to Dawson Isle with "little clothes", also threatening to execute the indigenous ex-constituents and others like Bassa and Aria. Pool has said he has presidential ambitions and interviewed Kast during the last presidential campaign. Kast praised him because "he tell it like it is". Cute. Of course, since he isn't left wing, the mainstream press has already moved on.

Boric is finally throwing some bones to #Populists" with a cash handout for winter and eliminating copay in the public health system (Until now, people with monthly income above ~380 USD had to pay between 10-20% out of pocket, including expensive operations).

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

[MaxQue]

Pedro Pool, an Osorno businessmen also known as the "Chilean Milei", said in an online show that if Approve wins, he is going to create "armed resistance groups" that will kill more than the number of people killed by Pinochet and that the exiles would be sent to Dawson Isle with "little clothes", also threatening to execute the indigenous ex-constituents and others like Bassa and Aria. Pool has said he has presidential ambitions and interviewed Kast during the last presidential campaign. Kast praised him because "he tell it like it is". Cute. Of course, since he isn't left wing, the mainstream press has already moved on.

Any reason why he wasn't arrested?

[kaoras]

Pedro Pool, an Osorno businessmen also known as the "Chilean Milei", said in an online show that if Approve wins, he is going to create "armed resistance groups" that will kill more than the number of people killed by Pinochet and that the exiles would be sent to Dawson Isle with "little clothes", also threatening to execute the indigenous ex-constituents and others like Bassa and Aria. Pool has said he has presidential ambitions and interviewed Kast during the last presidential campaign. Kast praised him because "he tell it like it is". Cute. Of course, since he isn't left wing, the mainstream press has already moved on.

Any reason why he wasn't arrested?

Public prosecutor office is consolidating all the lawsuits, but most likely it will amount to nothing. He has an extensive criminal record that includes beatings, domestic violence and water stealing. For all of that he has only paid some small fines.