Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Хahar 🤔]

Chile, notably, is the only country I know of where there has been an out-and-out war between the army and navy, which took place because the former supported the executive and the latter the legislature.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Leftist wannabe Nazi has defeated literal Nazi. Fun stuff.

[PSOL]

I am never supporting PCCh after they betrayed their voters over and over again and continue to suck. Hopefully the UPA and PTR can get enough traction from the parliamentary rightists and bobos disappointing everyone to make it to parliament next election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I am never supporting PCCh after they betrayed their voters over and over again and continue to suck. Hopefully the UPA and PTR can get enough traction from the parliamentary rightists and bobos disappointing everyone to make it to parliament next election.

I’m sure they’ll be sad to see you go out of what seems to be anger that they formed a coalition and gained their greatest level of parliamentary representation since 1973. Personally, I hope the new government goes well and the new constitution is approved (sane, normal).

In other news, Gonzalo de la Carrera continues his streak of having normal ones by quitting the Republican Party after admitting Kast lost without authorization on election night and later revealing that the campaign had told him to spread fake news about Boric. Love the extremely cool people Kast surrounds himself with and the real problem is definitely Camila Vallejo or whoever.

[Velasco]

I am waiting for the new "feminist government" promised by Boric

Will be Izkia Siches the next Health minister?

The "new generation" of Chilean leaders in the link below

https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-12-21/los-rostros-del-cambio-en-chile-una-nueva-generacion-llega-a-la-moneda-con-boric.html

[kaoras]

I am never supporting PCCh after they betrayed their voters over and over again and continue to suck. Hopefully the UPA and PTR can get enough traction from the parliamentary rightists and bobos disappointing everyone to make it to parliament next election.

You know PSOL, you are literally worse than the FA bobos you complain about so much. Boric and Jackson in 2017 at least said (in the most obnoxious and sabotaging way possible) that they were voting for Guillier, but at least they voted. Because I know is very comfortable to say, from thousands of kilometers away, that you wouldn't vote or that PC betrayed his voters by supporting Boric, but I thought that the news reached you ar at least you read this thread don't you.

And what exactly do you wanted PC to do, to not recognize the result of their primary, literally betraying all the leftist voters and do what? Not voting like you said you would have?

I have said, time and time and again. The Chilean right, from EVOPOLI to Kast, IS NOT democratic, it does NOT respect human rights and is NOT competent whatsoever. Every single time they have ruled since we have an identifiable left-right divide, be either the Alessandries, Pinochet, or Piñera, they have either killed hundreds of people just for protesting, being so incompetent to throw the country into social chaos, or both.

You are talking exactly how the radicals of FA talked in 2017, saying that it didn't matter that if the right won because they are all the same.  And now after these 4 years of Piñera, after the government blinded hundreds of people, tortured, raped, and killed protesters, after running this country into the ground politically and economically and putting forward a nazi Pinochet candidate that promised an "international coordination to incarcerate leftists", to give himself the power to incarcerate people in their homes, intercepts communications and basically making himself dictator without going through congress, to pardon all Pinochet era human rights abusers (and let's not get started with the economic proposals, because as always is the"working class" that has paid and would continue to pay the price of higher pensions for the military or lower taxes for the rich), aun no entiendes nada.

You would have no problem enabling a Kast government because I guess you haven't had the pleasure of going to the hospital because of the mix of pepper and tear gas, neither you had the pleasure of most PC party members of having a family member killed or tortured by Pinochet, of having the police enter your house in the middle of the night to check for terrorist weapons, to be tied to trees as a child and being told that they are going to kill your father or making you walk blindfold on the railroads so the train runs over you. That's whats Kast represented, defended, and would have possibly done because, again, the Chilean right is unreformed since Pinochet.

You are very lucky PSOL, very lucky to not have experienced any of that and having the privilege of saying "nah, I wouldn't have voted, nah, PC betrayed his voters". Nah, you would rather have them betray the memories of all their dead people by staying still before a pinochetist, because you are ignorant, period.

And please spare me whatever accelerationist bulshi-t you are thinking of. Your beloved class-conscious working class made abundantly clear that they rather have Boric than see this country flaming itself out of existence which is what would have happened under Kast.

[DL]

Was it only the presidential run off on Sunday or were there also congressional elections? What is the final makeup of the Chilean parliament?

[Mike88]

Was it only the presidential run off on Sunday or were there also congressional elections? What is the final makeup of the Chilean parliament?

No, I don't think so. Last weekend was only the runoff of the Presidential elections. The newly elected congress, elected in November, is quite divided between left and right:

Chamber of Deputies:

79 Leftwing (AD, NPS, DA, Greens)
69 Rightwing (ChV, FSC, IU)
  6 PDG (Parisi party)
  1 Independent

Senate:

25 Rightwing (ChV, FSC)
23 Leftwing (NPS, AD)
  2 Independents

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Was it only the presidential run off on Sunday or were there also congressional elections? What is the final makeup of the Chilean parliament?

No, I don't think so. Last weekend was only the runoff of the Presidential elections. The newly elected congress, elected in November, is quite divided between left and right:

Chamber of Deputies:

79 Leftwing (AD, NPS, DA, Greens)
69 Rightwing (ChV, FSC, IU)
  6 PDG (Parisi party)
  1 Independent

Senate:

25 Rightwing (ChV, FSC)
23 Leftwing (NPS, AD)
  2 Independents

The two independents in the Senate are leftist Fabiola Campillai (rose to prominence after being brutally assaulted by police during the estallido social) and populist-looking ex-concertacionista Karim Bianchi. The independent in the lower house is Bianchi’s father Carlos.

[kaoras]

For all practical purposes, the senate is 25-25 between left and right. The Bianchi clan has aligned itself consistently with the left since 2013.

Also, while IU/CU as a whole are rightwing anti-vaxxers, the guy they elected is an ex-ciudadanos that previously ran for governor of Maule and he sells itself as an independent huaso of the extreme centrist centre (Seriously, just take any of the MT Treasurers descriptions of Jon Tester, replace "prairie populist" with "huaso independiente" and you have Francisco Pulgar). Apparently he just used CU as a vehicle to get elected.

[PSOL]

How accurate is this article on the reasons as to why the left prevailed?

[Horus]

Boric seems like an interesting guy, if I were Chilean I certainly would've supported him. He is consistent.

[kaoras]

How accurate is this article on the reasons as to why the left prevailed?

It's true that Chilean economy is extremely dependent on Copper and that has hindered economic growth, development and fueled inequality. Now, Boric isn't really anti-mining, he, of course, wants more environmental protection, hike the royalties to the big mining companies, and diversify the economy, but the latter is something everybody says that they want to do and nothing ever happens, Boric also isn't going to accomplish that.

The environment and inequality were one of the reasons for the let victory, but more because they feed on the malaise and anger against the status quo. Kast has always been a champion of the status quo and is extremely orthodox economically, so he while he managed to capitalize over certain topics such as security and immigration, he still ended up painting himself as status quo economically.

However, I would say that the massive young vote that was mobilized against Kast was 50% a vote against the status quo, and 50% a cultural rejection of Kast values. I said that Chileans usually don't vote on cultural issues, but Kast was so far to the right and so retrograde on social issues that he was simple unacceptable for most younger voters. And this is a problem that the right has in general, I know a lot of people that refuse to identify with the left despite having never voted for the right in their lives. They don't like the left very much but is the default option because they see the right as retrograde and unwilling to do changes. The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged. That's why they must address their issues like the never-stopping infighting and deliver real change (which will have to be done via the constitutional convention), otherwise, another PDG or Parisi will come and steal the left base again

[kaoras]

Let's begin with the electoral breakdown. If you have problems following the comunas I name, I posted maps with each comuna name on my first round breakdowns in pages 38-39

Arica and Parinacota

Remember: M= Women, H: Men.

The generational analysis is done by DecideChile by looking at the results and age composition of each mesa in every polling place, and in small regions, it can get a bit weird due to small samples. For example, that Kast margin among men older is likely inflated because most of the mesas with older men are in the Altiplano comunas. Even accounting for that, outside the huge Boric margin among women under 30, there doesn’t seem much of an age gap, and in fact, Boric's second-best group are Men between 50 and 70, a vestige from the long-gone leftist era?



Boric very narrowly carried the region by 1% thanks to his 2% margin in the regional capital Arica, which cast 95% of the votes of the region. Arica has 4 electoral subdivisions: Arica (downtown), Arica Norte, Ex Barrio Industrial (former Industrial neighborhood), and San Miguel de Azapa. These subdivisions (in Arica and in every regional capital) are generally too big to be able to get a truly detailed look at, for example, “working class” or high-income neighborhoods, but we can do an approximation. Boric's best result was in Ex Barrio industrial, which as you may guess, is more working class. There, he got 53%. Boric got 51,5% in Arica Norte, which also has its fair share of poor neighborhoods. In downtown Arica, he got 50,5%. Kast won San Miguel de Azapa, which is a high income agricultural valley, with 61%.

Compared to 2017 the region barely moved 1% to the left, but this is more a return to normal after the unusually strong Guillier performance there in 2017. This is also home to one of the Guillier-Kast comunas, tiny Camarones valley south of Arica that Kast carried by 14 votes (Guillier won it by a single vote in 2017). It was a Kast landslide in the Altiplano border towns with Kast getting 65% in Putre (1500 votes in total) and 79% in General Lagos (300 votes)

Turnout only increased by 1% to 45%, way below the record 55% national turnout (and 8% increase). Is very difficult to know wheter it was basically the same electorate of the first round or if a pro-Boric turnout surge was countered by Parisi voters not showing up. I’m more inclined to believe in the latter: in this region turnout crashed in the altiplano comunas that were very favorable to Parisi and only went up in Arica. However, it should be noted that according to Decide Chile, new voters favoured Boric “only” by 60-40%. If we assume that Parisi voters showed up, around 57% went for Boric here.

[kaoras]

Tarapacá


One of the five regions that Kast won, Tarapacá is usually the second most right leaning region of the country. This time, it has to settle with 4th place. Tarapacá swung more or less in line with the nation, and it is interesting to see that to the extent there is an age gap at all, it seems that is reversed, with older people more likely to be left wing. Again, vestiges of a long-gone era?

Kast fell just a bit short of sweeping the region. He only lost the distopyan extremely depressed Iquique suburb of Alto Hospicio, where Parisi had got 40% and now went Boric by an incredibly narrow 0,3% margin. In Iquique itself, Kast got 50,4%. His best result was in “South Iquique” with 52,56% and where most of the high-income neighborhoods are (though is a really mixed zone). His margin there was enough to counter the narrow Boric win in the comparatively poorer downtown Iquique (50,5% Boric) and the tiny fishing town of Chanavayita (64% Boric, 228 votes in total)



Kast won by very big margins in the north of the region. The Aymara towns of Camina and Colchane delivered the usual right wing blowouts. Colchane was Kast best comuna nationwide with 95% of the vote. In the pampas and former saltpetter offices, the results were more mixed. Both Huara and Pozo Almonte have military bases, and Huara's low population (1500 votes cast) makes the military vote very disproportionate. In Huara, Kast got 65%, however, the very small towns in the comuna such as Pisagua, San Lorenzo de Tarapacá, and Chiapa gave Kast even bigger margins than Huara itself. The opposite happened in Pozo Almonte (53,7% Kast). Boric actually won the small towns of La Tirana and Mamiña (around 56% in both) but lost Pozo Almonte proper (home to Baquedano Army Base) by 44-56%. Pica behaved similarly (52,6% Kast), but there isn't electoral divisions there to look at.

Tarapacá had the lowest turnout of the country, 43,8%, up just 1% from the first round (but still better than the 38% of 2017).

[kaoras]

Antofagasta


_{M: Women, H: Men}

Antofagasta, an immemorial leftist stronghold where in the first round Parisi (34%) almost single-handedly beat both blocs. According to Decide Chile, 75% of Parisi voters went for Boric in the second round. I don’t think it actually is that high but in Antofagasta, the Parisi voters that showed up for the runoff went for Boric pretty damn hard. Boric strength here was mainly younger voters but it also showed strength among the middle age (miners?)



This is the start of a series of really boring maps. Boric won everything except for the border town of Ollagüe (54-45% for Kast), which is also majority Quecha. The border inmigration crisis likely played a role here, but Ollagüe used to vote for the right in the 90’s so it isn’t an extraordinary development either. Kast second-best result was the mining city of Calama, home of most of CODELCO miners from Chuquicamata, one of the largest copper mines of the world. Nowhere is more notorious how little of the copper wealth remains in the region, and also how big the contradictions are between the centuries old leftists miners traditions and the obscene amount of money that the unionized miners gain.  In Calama Parisi had gotten 41% of the vote, followed by Kast at 20% and Boric with just 15%. Turnout went down by 1% but Parisi voters broke hard for Boric who won with 54% against 45% for Kast. Similar tale in Sierra Gorda (60% Boric), a comuna that is basically all mining campaments.

In the regional capital Antofagasta, Boric got 60%. In the poorer North Antofagasta he got 64%, meanwhile, in South Antofagasta, which has most of the rich areas, he scored 57%. In the rest of the region Boric was comfortably ahead of 60%: 67% in San Pedro de Atacama (heavy concentration of indigenous Lican Antay), 69% in Taltal (fishing) and Tocopilla (fishing and industry). His best result was in María Elena with 74% of the vote, his fourth-best comuna nationwide. In this town, where even the mayorship building is owned by the private mining company SQM, Parisi got his best result nationwide in the first round with 53%.

Antofagasta swing was stronger than the national average (13% vs 10%), but the left should still be concerned about its long-term prospects in the region. Turnout went up by 2% to 44%.

[bigic]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

[Velasco]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

I watched senator Felipe Kast explaining why Evopoli supported candidate José Antonio Kast. I felt a sensation of deja vu when the senator said "we are democrats", while bashing the evil communists who support mapuche "terrorists" and stating "the Pinochet regime did some good things".  Actually I thought Felipe Kast was Albert Rivera, the former leader of the Spanish party Ciudadanos who occassionally quoted (unintentionally, I believe) Falange leader José Antonio Primo de Rivera. With all the due respect for their supporters, they are in no way "social liberals"

[kaoras]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

They pretended to be this, but over the course of the Piñera government, they have discredited themselves. They have been hardcore Piñerists, which is obviously very unpopular, but above all, most of their deputies have voted against abortion, against adoption for gay couples, one of their senators turned to be a homophobe... Supporting Kast in the second run was the last straw to totally discredit themselves as a "renewed socially liberal right".

Related to this, their former presidential candidate Ignacio Briones said that he voted null in the runoff because Kast was an "involution" for the right and EVOPOLI main figures (along with Mario Desbordes lol) have heavily criticized him for that.

(Plus everything Velasco just said)

[kaoras]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

[Lumine]

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

They pretended to be this, but over the course of the Piñera government, they have discredited themselves. They have been hardcore Piñerists, which is obviously very unpopular, but above all, most of their deputies have voted against abortion, against adoption for gay couples, one of their senators turned to be a homophobe... Supporting Kast in the second run was the last straw to totally discredit themselves as a "renewed socially liberal right".

Related to this, their former presidential candidate Ignacio Briones said that he voted null in the runoff because Kast was an "involution" for the right and EVOPOLI main figures (along with Mario Desbordes lol) have heavily criticized him for that.

(Plus everything Velasco just said)

Yes and no. It bears reminding that abortion is one of the most controversial issues for liberals in general, so on by itself the party's lack of support for it does not really diminish its liberal credentials. The party was also rather consistent in terms of supporting equal marriage, and those who have expressed opposition to it (like senator Aravena) have either left the party or are clearly in the wrong place.

Having said that, the party's decision to support JAK does discredit Evopoli's claim to be a liberal party and is fairly inexcusable considering how much time we spent in the past criticizing JAK (and, more broadly, the Republicans) for his populist, hard-right and/or extreme stances. If one adds this to how much the more conservative faction of the party has managed to impose its views lately (like the inexplicable equivocation on the plebscite instead of going all in for Apruebo), then the party truly loses credibility*.

The left current coalition is very unstable and could be easily undone if by some miracle a sane socially liberal right emerged.

Isn't this Evopoli? (Or at least they pretend they're like this)

I watched senator Felipe Kast explaining why Evopoli supported candidate José Antonio Kast. I felt a sensation of deja vu when the senator said "we are democrats", while bashing the evil communists who support mapuche "terrorists" and stating "the Pinochet regime did some good things".  Actually I thought Felipe Kast was Albert Rivera, the former leader of the Spanish party Ciudadanos who occassionally quoted (unintentionally, I believe) Falange leader José Antonio Primo de Rivera. With all the due respect for their supporters, they are in no way "social liberals"

The Rivera comparison is apt in some ways. It's particularly ironic since within the party we were rather mindful of the Ciudadanos debacle and keen not to repeat it, but the lesson some people drew from it wasn't that Rivera made a mistake to go so far to the right, but rather than Ciudadanos made a mistake of not having a clear enough identity. And now, of course, the party has chosen to put the "right" ahead of "liberal" in terms of its identity, embracing the Vox equivalent (some, of course, did it with alarming enthusiasm, like Senator-elect and aspiring "unity" figure Cruz-Coke).

* Which is why, on a personal note, I resigned my party membership a few weeks ago. Have felt rather relaxed since then.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

AD is really shooting itself in the foot with this gatekeeping bullsh*t. I get that you don't want to make it Concertacion 2.0, but it should be enough to keep the non-socialist parties out.

[PSOL]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

AD is really shooting itself in the foot with this gatekeeping bullsh*t. I get that you don't want to make it Concertacion 2.0, but it should be enough to keep the non-socialist parties out.

PS itself is made up of third wayers and the executive office and parliamentary coalition is already self-compromising, how much of a big tent do you need?

[Antonio the Sixth]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

AD is really shooting itself in the foot with this gatekeeping bullsh*t. I get that you don't want to make it Concertacion 2.0, but it should be enough to keep the non-socialist parties out.

PS itself is made up of third wayers and the executive office and parliamentary coalition is already self-compromising, how much of a big tent do you need?

Enough to have a realistic shot at a parliamentary majority would be nice. Clearly AD in its current form falls significantly short of that.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

FWIW, it’s my (half-remembered) understanding that during the pre-primary debacle Boric wanted to include the PS in AD, the PS wouldn’t come along without the PPD and a few others, and Jadue didn’t want any of them.