Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I guess the polls really were all off in the same direction.

[MaxQue]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

 Now say that without crying.

Come on, he cannot cry, he is just a bunch of Russian lines of computer script.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

[Mike88]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

[BigSerg]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

 Now say that without crying.

Latin America is ruined and deserves it. I just hope that in a year's time they don't ask us for humanitarian aid and bailout

[kaoras]

I guess the polls really were all off in the same direction.

Actually, only Atlas Intel was wrong. All the rest mostly nailed the margin

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, nice to see something good come out of Latin America in this dreary day up North. For the reasons people here cited, I don't expect Boric to pass much of anything legislatively, but the most important thing is ensuring the Constitutional Convention can work effectively to dismantle the Pinochetista regime. The Chilean left is playing the long game here, so it can afford some short-term setbacks. A truly democratic constitution will make up for all of them and more.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

Fan of Taylor Swift, from the looks of it.

[Хahar 🤔]

Please don't feed the troll.

[Mike88]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

Fan of Taylor Swift, from the looks of it.

Ohhh, ok, didn't knew that. I wasn't aware of that term (and to be honest, not surprising, because her music isn't really my thing) xD

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Boric will be better than the terrible Millennial state leaders we've already had (Kurz, Bukele, etc.) He's a Swiftie, so that's a good sign.

Swiftie?? What's that? xD

Fan of Taylor Swift, from the looks of it.

Ohhh, ok, didn't knew that. I wasn't aware of that term (and to be honest, not surprising, because her music isn't really my thing) xD

Don't worry, I had to google it too.

[kaoras]

Some very interesting regional maps, especially in the south. I think I'll do the region by region #analysis again.

[Logical]

Turnout went up by 8% compared to the first round. ~1.2 million more people voted in the second round. I think they lean largely to the left so it brings the question, why didn't they turnout on the first round? If they did the left could've won a more comfortable majority in the congress.

[kaoras]

Turnout went up by 8% compared to the first round. ~1.2 million more people voted in the second round. I think they lean largely to the left so it brings the question, why didn't they turnout on the first round? If they did the left could've won a more comfortable majority in the congress.

I don't know if they are pro-left per se, I think they were mainly motivated by opposition to Kast and everything he represents. But there's also has been a structural shift thanks to the estallido social in poor and young people turnout that was visible even in the first round. But as Parisi showed, that doesn't necessarily benefit the left but anti-system and anti-elitist discourse in general.

What the left could do is be more populist in general and less "ñuñoista" in their discourse. But above all, they must achieve the structural changes they preach, and with the current congress that will be very hard, they must focus on the success of the constitutional convention.

There is also a very thin rope to walk. The left electorate over the years has gotten more and more radical. The DC has declined from 30 to 4% and almost everything has gone to the more and more left wing and protest parties. Jadue really struck a chord with lifelong leftist voters that were angry for more radical solutions. Boric was able to consolidate those votes in the first round and not alienate them with his massive turn to the center in the second round because the opponent was Kast.

[kaoras]

Boric is talking and... yeah. The good thing about all of this is that I can't stop pretending that I like him starting from tomorrow.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

 Now say that without crying.

Latin America is ruined and deserves it.

For voting for political candidates you dislike? You and Josh Gottheimer should hang out and swap yarns. Maybe invite R.P. McM along as a third wheel while you're at it.

[kaoras]

Map of the results by comuna. At first glance, it seems kinda "normal" compared with previous maps but it hides a lot of movement that I'm going to break down in the next few days.

[Sebastiansg7]

Very happy for Chile today, and waiting for the region by region breakdown.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very happy for Chile today, and waiting for the region by region breakup.

Agreed completely. Also, welcome to the forum!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

Although not quite the whole Southern Cone (Lacalle Pou’s done well with the pandemic but he did make it a crime to insult a cop), and not the whole Andean Community (insofar as that means anything, but however you slice it Ecuador doesn’t) either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Southern Cone-Andean-Pacific area is turning into a real bright spot in general in terms of the global left's electoral fortunes. Who would have thought two or three years ago that that whole region would have leftist or center-left Presidents now?

The pink tide is no longer receding. At long last.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I personally cannot wait for the convention to install the dictadura gay.

[Edu]

Although not quite the whole Southern Cone (Lacalle Pou’s done well with the pandemic but he did make it a crime to insult a cop), and not the whole Andean Community (insofar as that means anything, but however you slice it Ecuador doesn’t) either.

Not only Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay don't have leftists governments but Castillo in Perú has sinking approvals and the peronists in Argentina (who are sh*t, no idea why someone outside of this country would claim them) just lost their majorities with horrid results in the midterm election.

Also I find it funny that Nathan talks about "who could have predicted this?", lol, several South American governments have been alternating between lefty and rightie governments for decades now. Not really a stretch that opposition parties might win. This pattern has been pretty obvious in, for instance, the country that this thread is about

[buritobr]

Lula sent the congratulations tweet to Boric

"Parabenizo o companheiro @gabrielboric por sua eleição para Presidente do Chile. Fico feliz por mais uma vitória de um candidato democrata e progressista na nossa América Latina, para a construção de um futuro melhor para todos."
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1472710630016700418

Probably he is very happy because of this fresh air to the South American left