Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

If I recall correctly, on the 1st round, Kast had a big lead over Boric in the first returns. If it's like this now, it's basically over, yep.

Also, it will be the first time that the 2nd placed in the 1st round, wins in the 2nd round in Chile, right?

Yep at both.

Also very big regional polarization so far.

[kaoras]

The poor comunas of the metropolitan region decided to vote for Boric by the same margin the Barrio Alto votes for the right. There's absolutely no coming back from that.

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by divisions on the left. What do you think kaoras?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric up 54-46 with 30% in.

[kaoras]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Parisi owned. Also Evopoli. Lo pierde todo.

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

[Oryxslayer]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Yep, good to see that Boric is winning, but I think it's appropriate to understand that the constitutional convention will decide the fate of Boric's programs. In some ways, one might consider this election a test of the conventions legitimacy - one that succeeded - since Kast would no doubt have done everything and more to shut it down.

[kaoras]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

DC? maybe. The rest of NPS really doesn't care. Besides, PS is probably going to join his coalition.
And yeah, Boric has to not be so unpopular to get a backlash that could reject the new constitution.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm feeling so much relief right now. Gracias Chile!!

BTW, kaoras, can you share with us the results in some poor neighborhoods of Santiago? I need it to reply to a pinochetista friend who told me that Kast would be more harmed by the lack of public transportation there.

Thanks! And congratulations!

[kaoras]

Also, I'm going to say this before going to celebrate.

Good f*u¨cking thing that your old electorate is still willing to vote for you over a literal nazi pinochetist. That doesn't mean that the left doesn't has huge long-term issues.

[kaoras]

I'm feeling so much relief right now. Gracias Chile!!

BTW, kaoras, can you share with us the results in some poor neighborhoods of Santiago? I need it to reply to a pinochetista friend who told me that Kast would be more harmed by the lack of public transportation there.

Thanks! And congratulations!

Check Decide Chile, but for example, Boric 72,8% in La Pintana, 73% in Lo Espejo, 71% in Renca

[PetrSokol]

A little bit of topic: what is the meaning of the logo of the Boric coalition AD?   

[Sadader]

Final estimates for margin anyone?

[Benjamin Frank]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by divisions on the left. What do you think kaoras?

I'm not kaoras, but if that's the case, he'll probably spend most of his time in a bar with President Biden.

[skbl17]

Kast has conceded:

https://twitter.com/joseantoniokast/status/1472692985598910467

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A little bit of topic: what is the meaning of the logo of the Boric coalition AD?   

I assume it’s as follows

Red and white star = communism

Blue and eight-pointed star = indigenous/Mapuche

Rainbow = gays

Green and purple = feminism and the environment

[Alcibiades]

I have to say, this has been a (pleasantly) surprisingly painless results night (or technically evening, I suppose), all in all.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Chile and the rest of the continent are breathing a sigh of relief!

[Mike88]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

DC? maybe. The rest of NPS really doesn't care. Besides, PS is probably going to join his coalition.
And yeah, Boric has to not be so unpopular to get a backlash that could reject the new constitution.

Well, one is enough to "wreck a party", one can say. We'll see.

Also, this Chilean tradition of the incumbent talking to the elected is interesting, but at the same time, a bit cringe. This time is very 2021, via zoom. In 2017, it was by phone, right?

[Niemeyerite]

I cannot express how happy I'm feeling for Chile right now. Chile never upsets! What a wonderful country!

[skbl17]

It's already 54-46%.

Anyway, Boric will have a very hard time governing. He has a divided congress, especially the Senate, and probably many of his policies could be blocked by the right or even by division on the left. What do you think kaoras?

The only hope Boric has is passing lame populist stuff with the help of PDG in the chamber and Ossandon in the senate and hope that the Constitutional convention changes the attribution of congress so much that they have to do early elections if the new constitution is approved.

Wouldn't that upset, for example, the NPS? I mean, it could work in some policies, but in the long hall it will probably lead to a "swampy" territory.

He has to hope, also, that he's still popular if those early elections are even held, because if not, it would backfire.

DC? maybe. The rest of NPS really doesn't care. Besides, PS is probably going to join his coalition.
And yeah, Boric has to not be so unpopular to get a backlash that could reject the new constitution.

Well, one is enough to "wreck a party", one can say. We'll see.

Also, this Chilean tradition of the incumbent talking to the elected is interesting, but at the same time, a bit cringe. This time is very 2021, via zoom. In 2017, it was by phone, right?

Yep.

[Mike88]

Boric surpassed Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle in the record of most votes cast for a candidate. In 1993, Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle won 4,040,497 votes. Boric is now at 4,448,861.

Also, there was a record number of ballots cast, more than 8,240,000.

[BigSerg]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

[Bilardista]

This is a temporary victory that will only make Latin America poorer and more ruined. Peru is still the same ruined country as always, Argentina can barely survive and Brazil is an endless cesspool.... I guess hunger and misery will make Chileans understand the hard way.

 Now say that without crying.