Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[CumbrianLefty]

Any report/indications on turnout?

There are very long queues everywhere but it could be COVID protocols and general SERVEL incompetence. But even considering that, it seems that turnout could go up significantly

Could that be good for the left?

[kaoras]

Any report/indications on turnout?

There are very long queues everywhere but it could be COVID protocols and general SERVEL incompetence. But even considering that, it seems that turnout could go up significantly

Could that be good for the left?

Meh, low turnout was instrumental for the absolute tsunami that was the May elections. Is very hard to know who will benefit

[kaoras]

Updated parliamentary projections according to the press.

• Unión Patriotica (UPA): Far Left, Still unlikely to gain seats, could get like 1% of the vote.
• Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR): Far left, Trotskysts, chance of a single seat in Antofagasta, D3
• Dignidad Ahora (DA): Left, coalition of Partido Humanista (PH) and Partido Igualdad (PI). They could do very well % wise and get a few seats besides Pamela Jiles.
• Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV). Left. I still think they should get a seat in their stronghold of Concepción Metro area and could surprise in other random districts.
• Apruebo Dignidad (AD): Left. Frente Amplio (FA) + Partido Comunista (PC) and FRVS. They expect 4-5 seats in the senate and between 40 and 55 deputies
• Partido Progresista (PRO): Centre Left. MEO pary still has 0 chances at anything.
• Nuevo Pacto Social (NPS): As before, they expect 9-10 seats in the senate, but are very pessimist on the Chamber of deputies, could go as low 27-30 in the lower end.
• Partido de la Gente (PDG): Populism. Considering the Parisi surge I think is very likely thay they will randomly win seats in a few districts. Some even predict up to 10 seats or more. Is very dependent on how much Parisi gets in the end and if he is able to pass that support downballot
• Independientes Unidos (IU): Right Populism, anti vax. Still unlikely to gain anything.
• Chile Podemos + (CP+) and Frente Social Cristiano (FSC). Analyst think they get 60 seats or up to 40% of the chamber betwee them. Predictions for Kast's FSC vary wildly, betwen 5-7 to 15 deputies, or even more.

[/list]

Of the true independents, Fabiola Campillai, who was blinded by the police during the protests, has a very good shot at the senate in Santiago.

Those are the baselines for watching today's parliamentary results.

[Niemeyerite]

Some questions about today:

- At what time do polls close?
- When will the first results be released?
- Will we know who goes to the runoff today?
- At what time do you expect to have a good picture of the final results?

I spent 6 beautiful months of my life in Santiago, and had the opportunity to travel a lot. I'm in love with Chile and am always thinking about going back... I really enjoyed my time there.

Here's my prediction, btw:

Boric 25%
Kast 24%
Sichel 19%
Provoste 15%
Parisi 10%
Ominami 6%
Artés 1%

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain). The first results should come out at 18:30-19:00. We will know today, because in Chile, statistically, with 2,5% of the vote in, the final result doesn't change meaningfully. So, unless 2 candidates are tied for second place, we will know very early. By 19:30 we should have a clear picture,

Also, I'm very happy to hear that you liked Chile a lot! Which places did you visit?

Thanks for the answers and the kindness.

I really enjoyed my time in your country, and miss it a lot. I went to Cajón del Maipo, Valparaíso, Viña and some nearby places, Valle del Elqui and La Serena, Atacama Desert, El Maule (the beach, las Siete Tazas, etc), some national parks in Araucanía, Pucón, Valdivia, Puerto Varas, Chiloé, Torres del Paine and Punta Arenas 😃 oh, I also spent 5 days in Easter Island so I'd say that I used my time well. Didn't go to the University as much as I should have but... I don't regret it 😂

When I'm back, I'll definitely go to the Carretera Austral, Coyhaique et al. Also, I think a trip to the part of Atacama I didn't see (+Arica) is mandatory!

[Red Velvet]

Vote closes in about 30 min if I didn’t get the timezones wrong.

When can we expect to get some preliminary results? Population isn’t big, should be quite fast.

Internationally, Boric is absolutely destroying Kast, especially in Europe lol. Boric with 62,3% so far with expats overall, Kast 2nd with only 13,4%. Sichel 3rd with 10,4%. I wonder if the national vote will reflect at least to some degree this overperformance of the left.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls are closed, although those in line can still vote of course.

[Niemeyerite]

So I found the 2017 expat vote. It was:

Beatriz Sánchez 5.587 votos (24,22%),
Alejandro Guillier 6.569 (28,48%),
Sebastián Piñera 7.223 (31,32%),
Carolina Goic 1.386 (6,01%),
José Antonio Kast 1.230 (5,33%),
Marco Enriquez Ominami 709 (3,07%),
Eduardo Artés 222 (0,96%)

All in all, ~63% left & centre-left vs. ~37% right.

We have 73% for the centre-left and left right now with Boric getting 62%. That means very good news for him, I suppose.

[Red Velvet]

I mean, it’s mostly European + Asian vote kicking in.

I wonder how much to the right the US + LatAm votes will be. Would be surprised if they are as left as Europe. Still good results for Boric though! If he finishes with over 50% with expats is already great signal for him.

[Niemeyerite]

If the national vote evolution turns out to be similar to the expat one, Boric is definitely over 30% and probably closer to 40%. But I will try not to get my hopes up and read too much on early trends and results, as an Atlas institution would advise 🙃

[Niemeyerite]

I mean, it’s mostly European + Asian vote kicking in.

I wonder how much to the right the US + LatAm votes will be. Would be surprised if they are as left as Europe. Still good results for Boric though! If he finishes with over 50% with expats is already great signal for him.

True. Just a way to spend the time till results start quicking in.

[Red Velvet]

No one expects Boric to already win or anything, this was always going to a runoff, but if he finishes between 35%-40% then a big surprise would need to happen between now and the runoff for Kast to be able to upset.

Especially since it’s looking now that Kast and Sichel really are dividing the votes. Kast is only barely ahead of Sichel with expats and even if national votes likely will be more favorable to him than international ones, it could maybe still indicate an underperformance in comparison to polls.

[BigSerg]

Live results
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKQpB5akYp0

[Red Velvet]

Paper vote huh? 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Paper vote huh?  

As far as I can tell, Brazil is the only country that maintains its particular obsession with electronic voting.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Controversy at a polling station in Maipú, with people alleging that the polling station was closed early and they’re not being allowed to vote despite having been in line, while I’ve seen others saying they arrived after 6 when it had already closed. Unsure what the truth is.

Update: it appears to have been opened and the people are being allowed to vote, but there are similar issues at other polling stations.

[Red Velvet]

Paper vote huh?  

As far as I can tell, Brazil is the only country that maintains its particular obsession with electronic voting.

Much more effective and fast. All these people arriving in time but still not being able to vote because of huge lines is insane. US elections had similar issues of accessibility.

It’s an absurd to close the gates for these people after they waited time in the line and were punctual.

[Skye]

Paper vote huh?  

As far as I can tell, Brazil is the only country that maintains its particular obsession with electronic voting.

Venezuela has electronic voting.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Parisi leading in essentially the whole north of the country, #stopthecount

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to official results?

[Logical]

Link to official results?

Official: servelelecciones.cl
More digestable version: live.decidechile.cl

[buritobr]

EMOL is updating the results
https://www.emol.com/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Over 4% of the votes counted, which should be enough to see a trend. Kast 28, Boric 24, Parisi and Provoste essentially tied at 14 but Parisi narrowly in third.

[Red Velvet]

So far it looks like polls were actually correct if you look at Chile-only results

[FrancoAgo]

So the right around 55%, like 2nd turn of 2017?

[BigSerg]

Link to official results?

Official: servelelecciones.cl
More digestable version: live.decidechile.cl

https://www.servelelecciones.cl/