Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Presidential debate in two days (well, tomorrow). Some debt scandal involving Franco Parisi (silly man). Also they’re attempting to facilitate a process for members of the constitutional convention to resign so the convention can really turn the page on the Rojas Vade scandal.

Oh, it gets better, he said that he requested "political asylum" in USA because of political persecution and that Chile was not a democracy (i.e. I really don't want to pay the child support that I ow) Is not impossible that he will never put a foot in the country.

I guess this is good news for Sichel, who is going down in the latest polls for reasons I don't really understand. Also, Kast and Provoste are basically in an statistical tie for third place.

[kaoras]

The first debate had mediocre ratings (16 points) but it still dominates the coverage. The main takeaway is that Boric and Kast were the main winners. Personally I was fairly unimpressed with Boric performance but it's seems that most people think he did well, and made no major mistakes, consolidating his lead. Kast was by far the best performer and constantly attacked Boric.

Sichel was meh, Artés is honestly endearing for us left-wingers and Provoste was fairly bad. She lost her temper quickly, attacked a lot but her attacks didn't quite land and will mostly be remembered by her gaffe of citing Wikipedia.

[PSOL]

Could you go into detail on Ártes’s performance?

[kaoras]

Could you go into detail on Ártes’s performance?

Oh, you would have liked him a lot. He said he was the only one proposing a different system, socialism, called Boric a "bourgeoise liberal", had many different nationalization proposals and my favorite thing, asked Sichel to say with energy that he was right-wing, not "centre right". For what is worth, the debate did make me consider protest-voting him since I really don't want to vote for Boric in the first round.

[PSOL]

Could you go into detail on Ártes’s performance?

Oh, you would have liked him a lot. He said he was the only one proposing a different system, socialism, called Boric a "bourgeoise liberal", had many different nationalization proposals and my favorite thing, asked Sichel to say with energy that he was right-wing, not "centre right". For what is worth, the debate did make me consider protest-voting him since I really don't want to vote for Boric in the first round.

Boric is very likely going to win the first round, and in no doubt going to be in the top 2 to advance in the runoff. You and anyone else in your circle’s vote does not matter in this regard.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Now it is the 48th anniversary of the coup d'etat against Salvador Allende in 1973, and of course the main Chilean newspapers and TV stations are having special coverage on the twin tower attacks. The good news is that La Red tv stations broke the censorship pact of the main tv channels and showed the documentary "La Batalla de Chile", with record-breaking ratings for the station. La Red in the last year has positioned itself as a left-wing channel, a first in Chile where you can reasonably argue that all tv stations are right-leaning, a move that has resulted in harassment from Piñera's Government.

The main presidential candidates made several statements.
Yasna Provoste said:

"Never again human rights violations in Chile, neither before nor now. May the political and social unity of the people never be broken again. (...) My tribute to the memory of President Allende".

Boric:

At the Museum of Memory we remember President Salvador Allende and the Chilean people. Without memory there is no future. Truth, justice and reparation to the victims of human rights violations

Sichel:

Chileans want the future to be much better than the present and that we do not stay stuck in the past. It depends on everyone

Kast hasn't said anything

Also, I want to congratulate the Chilean Right for their astounding advances on human rights. They are truly fully reformed since the Pinochet era. They went from being responsible for murder, torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions during Pinochet to ... eh, being responsible for excessive or unnecessary use of force that led to arbitrary deprivation of life and injuries, torture and illtreatment, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions during Piñera.

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left has not continued to do so today in the 2019 protests.

[kaoras]

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left did not continue to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Oh yeah, what human rights abuses did the Left commit during Allende? The closest thing you could think of is the MIR which was not part of UP and regularly opposed Allende. And how exactly did the left commit human rights abuses when it was not in power?

Because you are not seriously thinking that throwing a rock to riot-geared police counts as human right abuse, aren't you? (or that the protest was an exclusively left-wing movement for that matter) There are standards for these things, that's why not every single murder in the world is processed at the Haye.

Also, is fairly damming for the Chilean right that even you can't come with a better defence than whataboutism that isn't even really true.

[Estrella]

Now it is the 48th anniversary of the coup d'etat against Salvador Allende in 1973, and of course the main Chilean newspapers and TV stations are having special coverage on the twin tower attacks. The good news is that La Red tv stations broke the censorship pact of the main tv channels and showed the documentary "La Batalla de Chile", with record-breaking ratings for the station. La Red in the last year has positioned itself as a left-wing channel, a first in Chile where you can reasonably argue that all tv stations are right-leaning, a move that has resulted in harassment from Piñera's Government.

The main presidential candidates made several statements.
Yasna Provoste said:

"Never again human rights violations in Chile, neither before nor now. May the political and social unity of the people never be broken again. (...) My tribute to the memory of President Allende".

Boric:

At the Museum of Memory we remember President Salvador Allende and the Chilean people. Without memory there is no future. Truth, justice and reparation to the victims of human rights violations

Sichel:

Chileans want the future to be much better than the present and that we do not stay stuck in the past. It depends on everyone

Kast hasn't said anything

Also, I want to congratulate the Chilean Right for their astounding advances on human rights. They are truly fully reformed since the Pinochet era. They went from being responsible for murder, torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions during Pinochet to ... eh, being responsible for excessive or unnecessary use of force that led to arbitrary deprivation of life and injuries, torture and illtreatment, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions during Piñera.

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left has not continued to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Incompetence in government and arson on the streets are bad, but comparing them to tens of thousands of cases of torture and murder is... interesting. And by interesting, I mean that it's being an ideological hack to the point of denying reality. I bet that you wouldn't like it if someone started defending the state of today's Venezuela by saying "well, thirty years ago the right violated human rights by wasting oil money and they're still violating them by protesting today", would you?

[kaoras]

The first post-debate poll is UDD, but only for the Metropolitan region. 26% think Boric won, 20% Kast, 11% Provoste, 10% Sichel, 4% Artés.

The narrative that Kast is surging is already established, with UDI warning that its base is "window-shopping" for Kast. CP+ parties have always complained that Sichel has not integrated them into his campaign and that he needs to send more "signals" to right-wing voters. Sichel has responder integrating some aides from CP+ parties but otherwise, it has doubled down on his "I'm centrist/anti-parties, let's not politicize politics _{[actual quote from the debate]}" rethoric. Though is clear that they are becoming more worried each day.

There is currently a migrant crisis in the north and that could play directly into Kast. Yesterday in Iquique a protest ended up with the burning of Venezuelan's tents and belongings.

[Biden 2024]

Any polls on a Boric v. Kast runoff?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left did not continue to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Oh yeah, what human rights abuses did the Left commit during Allende? The closest thing you could think of is the MIR which was not part of UP and regularly opposed Allende. And how exactly did the left commit human rights abuses when it was not in power?

Because you are not seriously thinking that throwing a rock to riot-geared police counts as human right abuse, aren't you? (or that the protest was an exclusively left-wing movement for that matter) There are standards for these things, that's why not every single murder in the world is processed at the Haye.

Also, is fairly damming for the Chilean right that even you can't come with a better defence than whataboutism that isn't even really true.

Lol, the MIR was about as separate from Allende as Contreras was from the Pinochet regime, or beat cops in 2019 were from the government. Separately, the Allende government also violated private property rights by collectivizing property.

Yes, rock throwing is assault -- but more importantly, looting, theft and destruction are also violations of rights.

And to your allegation of whataboutism -- when the question the question is violence, obviously one would always prefer to avoid it. But the best reason for its usage is always self defense from another force using violence. To point out that another force is using violence is completely relevant in explaining why force needs to be used in the first place.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Now it is the 48th anniversary of the coup d'etat against Salvador Allende in 1973, and of course the main Chilean newspapers and TV stations are having special coverage on the twin tower attacks. The good news is that La Red tv stations broke the censorship pact of the main tv channels and showed the documentary "La Batalla de Chile", with record-breaking ratings for the station. La Red in the last year has positioned itself as a left-wing channel, a first in Chile where you can reasonably argue that all tv stations are right-leaning, a move that has resulted in harassment from Piñera's Government.

The main presidential candidates made several statements.
Yasna Provoste said:

"Never again human rights violations in Chile, neither before nor now. May the political and social unity of the people never be broken again. (...) My tribute to the memory of President Allende".

Boric:

At the Museum of Memory we remember President Salvador Allende and the Chilean people. Without memory there is no future. Truth, justice and reparation to the victims of human rights violations

Sichel:

Chileans want the future to be much better than the present and that we do not stay stuck in the past. It depends on everyone

Kast hasn't said anything

Also, I want to congratulate the Chilean Right for their astounding advances on human rights. They are truly fully reformed since the Pinochet era. They went from being responsible for murder, torture, sexual violence and arbitrary detentions during Pinochet to ... eh, being responsible for excessive or unnecessary use of force that led to arbitrary deprivation of life and injuries, torture and illtreatment, sexual violence, and arbitrary detentions during Piñera.

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left has not continued to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Incompetence in government and arson on the streets are bad, but comparing them to tens of thousands of cases of torture and murder is... interesting. And by interesting, I mean that it's being an ideological hack to the point of denying reality. I bet that you wouldn't like it if someone started defending the state of today's Venezuela by saying "well, thirty years ago the right violated human rights by wasting oil money and they're still violating them by protesting today", would you?

You're right. I wouldn't. But they're not comparable. The left didn't just "protest" in 2019 -- they actively violated the laws of a democratic state because they didn't like the economic structure of that state. That's wrong because change in a democratic, non-rights violating state should come through the ballot box, not violent. By contrast, Venezuela isn't a democratic state, so the situation is completely different.

[kaoras]

As if the Chilean Left did not regularly and egregiously abuse human rights under Allende, and as if the Chilean Left did not continue to do so today in the 2019 protests.

Oh yeah, what human rights abuses did the Left commit during Allende? The closest thing you could think of is the MIR which was not part of UP and regularly opposed Allende. And how exactly did the left commit human rights abuses when it was not in power?

Because you are not seriously thinking that throwing a rock to riot-geared police counts as human right abuse, aren't you? (or that the protest was an exclusively left-wing movement for that matter) There are standards for these things, that's why not every single murder in the world is processed at the Haye.

Also, is fairly damming for the Chilean right that even you can't come with a better defence than whataboutism that isn't even really true.

Lol, the MIR was about as separate from Allende as Contreras was from the Pinochet regime, or beat cops in 2019 were from the government. Separately, the Allende government also violated private property rights by collectivizing property.

Yes, rock throwing is assault -- but more importantly, looting, theft and destruction are also violations of rights.

And to your allegation of whataboutism -- when the question the question is violence, obviously one would always prefer to avoid it. But the best reason for its usage is always self defense from another force using violence. To point out that another force is using violence is completely relevant in explaining why force needs to be used in the first place.

Look, if you are not even willing to do something as simple as to differentiate when a group takes direct orders from above (as is the case of Contreras with Pinochet and the police with Piñera) or doesn't (MIR with Allende, and even then, inciting farmers to occupy latifunds hardly counts as crime agains humanity) then is pointless arguing with you. I could throw text walls about actual facts of Allende's government or why petty crime and arson isn't human right abuse under international law but it would be like arguing to a wall. So have a nice day.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Love to compare the 2019 protests to Pinochet because change should come through the ballot box when the protests have so far…achieved change through the ballot box. It’s not like they stormed La Moneda and killed Piñera.

[kaoras]

Any polls on a Boric v. Kast runoff?

A few of them by Cadem, they show Boric leading Kast by a 2-1 proportion.

I'm starting to reconsider the "hard-ceiling" of Kast, if Sichel flounders then it could definitely go higher than 13% in the first round. Advancing to the second round would require a near-perfect split or an absolute Sichel meltdown which is very unlikely but not totally impossible considering that Provoste also isn't doing well right now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Any polls on a Boric v. Kast runoff?

Do we even need any polls to know how that is me will go?

[kaoras]

The government is blaming the migrant crisis into the north on... Boric. Yeah, they went beyond their usual mantra of "is the last government fault", now is the "next government fault". Honestly, these ideas are beyond my level. And Sichel and Kast are using the same playbook and I find it so ridiculous that I think they are wasting a great opportunity, their more hardline stances on immigration would be popular, but nobody pays attention to that since is drowned by the "Is Boric fault somehow" message.

Anyway, the Sichel campaign is in apparent disarray since Congress approved another round of pension funds with 18 votes of Chile Podemos + after Sichel tried to whip everyone to vote no, which was done with so little tact it ended up backfiring (also a very dumb polemic about if he withdrew his pension funds or not, Sichel refuses to answer and thus the polemic continues) 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not quite election-related, but the Chamber of Deputies just voted to legalize abortion with one yes vote from the government (Francisco Undurraga, Evopoli, Sichel campaign spokesman) and a few nos (some DC members) and abstentions (some DC and PPD members) from the opposition.

[kaoras]

Not quite election-related, but the Chamber of Deputies just voted to legalize abortion with one yes vote from the government (Francisco Undurraga, Evopoli, Sichel campaign spokesman) and a few nos (some DC members) and abstentions (some DC and PPD members) from the opposition.

They technically approved the idea to discuss it. Some of the Yes from the DC will turn into Noes when they actually vote for it, like Walker. Many of the DCs who approved it did it for Yasna Provoste since she is in favour and they don't want to undermine her.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not quite election-related, but the Chamber of Deputies just voted to legalize abortion with one yes vote from the government (Francisco Undurraga, Evopoli, Sichel campaign spokesman) and a few nos (some DC members) and abstentions (some DC and PPD members) from the opposition.

They technically approved the idea to discuss it. Some of the Yes from the DC will turn into Noes when they actually vote for it, like Walker. Many of the DCs who approved it did it for Yasna Provoste since she is in favour and they don't want to undermine her.

Ah, thank you for clearing that up.

[kaoras]

Sichel admitted that he withdrew his pension funds (to the shock of no one) and said thay if the new 10% withdrawal passes there should be a withdrawal of 100% to protect the funds from "irresponsible politicians and bureaucrats" (lol). Some people are writing eulogies for Sichel's campaign but I think that is overblown. This is a very dumb self-inflicted wound but does anyone really care that much?

BTW, if you are somewhere Lumine, I hope you can comment on your impressions of the campaign so far and the Kast surge. This thread definitely could use more perspectives other than my fire breathing anti-rightism

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The Clinic published an interview with Sichel’s stepfather, Saúl Iglesias, responding to Sichel’s longtime accusations of abuse and maltreatment that led him to rediscover his biological father and take his last name several years ago, a story that has been essentially the whole basis of his campaign along with his “I’m a Moderate Centrist(TM)” No Labels crap. Lots of controversy over Sichel’s life story again, and over the fact that The Clinic even gave the interview in the first place, but I read it and it seems to reflect more poorly on Iglesias than anyone else, given that he basically admits to physical abuse in his own words. As with the pension funds, I think people on the left want this to be worse for Sichel than it is, but it’s undeniable that this is not a good week for him at all.

[kaoras]

Yeah, honestly I think that interview is only going to get sympathy for Sichel, with the added bonus that it buried his previous polemic.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, honestly I think that interview is only going to get sympathy for Sichel, with the added bonus that it buried his previous polemic.

I think it could contribute to a “Sichel in disarray” narrative, rather than burying the pension story, but I do agree that once people move beyond the initial reaction this will help reinforce his life story.

[kaoras]

Uh, boy. Activa is out and it shows Kast in second place.

https://twitter.com/T13/status/1444668487734005760

30% undecided/won't vote.

Also, Alfred was right. The press kept running stories about Sichel in disarray all weekend.