Is Ohio and Florida gone for democrats?

[Woody]

Biden seems to be underperforming/replicating Clinton's 16' numbers in Ohio, despite being a white man. The absolute Based Cubanos swung hard right for Trump, Miami-Dade went from a Clinton +29 county to Biden +7 county, despite Biden desperately trying to distance himself from socialism. Are these states gone for democrats?

[DabbingSanta]

Yes, both states are gone going forward. The Republican party is now the party of the white working class, and this won't change regardless of who manages to win today.

[DabbingSanta]

Hispanic gains also suggest Texas might not become a Dem state either. Again, no surprise if you think about the culture.  And states like Nevada are still in play going forward.

[Mr. Smith]

Florida..still no.

Ohio yes.

Actual Hispanic outreach is the path. Given Arizona [which flipped], Colorado, and even Kansas...it's pretty clear that a Western Front is going to be the key.

Also, pathetic as it may have been, Texas did swing leftwards [though the trend is certainly gonna be nasty]

[tjstarling]

Yes, both states are gone going forward. The Republican party is now the party of the white working class, and this won't change regardless of who manages to win today.

Eh, I mostly agree. But I really think people undersell how fluid some parts of the electorate can be. I could be wrong here, but I think with some Hispanics there is a huge response to incumbency. They seem to like the familiar. That’s not to excuse Democrats (and this is not just a Biden problem, the blame does not go solely to him) poor messaging/out reach to that community. But the re-election of Clinton, Bush, Obama, and, now, Trump saw favorable swings toward the incumbent. I think the fact remains that this is a naturally Democratic constituency, but Democrats have to work for it (see how they responded after Bush’s strong performance with that group in ‘04).

White working class voters are a much larger problem. I don’t think many of them are coming back. Apologies to Hillary because it didn’t seem to be her. They were looking for a reason to bolt for a while and they did en masse in 2016. What’s developed in 2020 is that rather than being “missing” white voters, these voters are no longer missing. They’re voting. Truth be told all the years that we were told how Democrats benefit from high turn out doesn’t look to be true at all.

[Woody]

Don't forget that Reps flipped FL-26 and 27th.

[Orwell]

Are Florida Ohio and Florida gone for Democrats?*

[Tekken_Guy]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

[Suburbia]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

[Suburbia]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

In a presidential year?

[Tekken_Guy]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

In a presidential year?

Yeah.

[Calthrina950]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

In a presidential year?

Yeah.

And going in another tangent, last night made it crystal clear that Joe Manchin is in his last term as well, whether he wants to be or not. Perdue, the last remaining Democratic statewide officeholder in West Virginia, lost, and Trump did about the same in the state as in 2016. West Virginia and Ohio will be among the first Republican pickups in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

In a presidential year?

Yeah.

And going in another tangent, last night made it crystal clear that Joe Manchin is in his last term as well, whether he wants to be or not. Perdue, the last remaining Democratic statewide officeholder in West Virginia, lost, and Trump did about the same in the state as in 2016. West Virginia and Ohio will be among the first Republican pickups in 2024.

Also, bye-bye Jon Tester.

[Calthrina950]

Sadly, I think Nikki Fried’s career is over in 2022. And I hope Sherrod Brown enjoys what will likely be his last term.

No. Sherrod Brown is gonna hold on. He would have won the election if he ran, or so.

He only won by 6 in a good year for D's. He's going to get destroyed in 2024.

In a presidential year?

Yeah.

And going in another tangent, last night made it crystal clear that Joe Manchin is in his last term as well, whether he wants to be or not. Perdue, the last remaining Democratic statewide officeholder in West Virginia, lost, and Trump did about the same in the state as in 2016. West Virginia and Ohio will be among the first Republican pickups in 2024.

Also, bye-bye Jon Tester.

Exactly this. Given that Bullock, Williams, and Cooney all lost, and Trump handily carried the state, it amazes me that Tester managed to win reelection in 2018. Perhaps it's because he was the incumbent Senator-a factor that may have also worked in the favor of Brown and Manchin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Biden does officially win (and I see very little chance he won't), the only two Roman Catholics ever to win the White House will also be the only two Presidents to win without either Ohio or Florida.

Ohio and Florida aren't gone for Democrats, but the way the nation is trending, Texas will be the big prize that makes them irrelevant to Democrats.

[jamestroll]

Absolutely!

All that money should have been spent in idk.. Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, etc.

Forget about ing texas and florida.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

If Biden does officially win (and I see very little chance he won't), the only two Roman Catholics ever to win the White House will also be the only two Presidents to win without either Ohio or Florida.

Ohio and Florida aren't gone for Democrats, but the way the nation is trending, Texas will be the big prize that makes them irrelevant to Democrats.

If Democrats can't even hold on to South Texas, it's not going to flip any time soon.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Hot take: this "realignment" is not helping Democrats at all. A 65% win in California doesn't change the fact that once friendly Democratic strongholds in the Midwest are losing population and trending Republican. Ohio, Michigan, the Dakotas, and Wisconsin still have more combined power in the Senate than California despite its population. It's increasingly difficult to paint a rosy picture for Democrats in the Senate going forward.

[Suburbia]

Ohio and Florida should be contested by Democrats unless there is a horrid candidate

[DabbingSanta]

Hot take: this "realignment" is not helping Democrats at all. A 65% win in California doesn't change the fact that once friendly Democratic strongholds in the Midwest are losing population and trending Republican. Ohio, Michigan, the Dakotas, and Wisconsin still have more combined power in the Senate than California despite its population. It's increasingly difficult to paint a rosy picture for Democrats in the Senate going forward.

It's simple. Democrats need to reform their message, or else they're going to keep losing. Vast majority of Americans don't like identity politics. I think the white working class is gone for them, but they can keep making in roads in suburban areas and perhaps try to regain some hispanic support.

[BlueSwan]

The only reason we are even discussing this is because of the stupid electoral college. It is crazy that democrats have to win by upwards of 5 %-points now to actual win elections. If it wasn't for the electoral college things would look incredibly bleak for republicans now.

But yeah, Ohio is gone. Iowa is gone.

Florida is not gone. Florida is still Florida and it is too important to let go of. Surely a democrat in the future will be able to have more appeal to the latino population than Joe Biden, who was never really in sync with them, not even in the primaries.

Wisconsin/Minnesota/Michigan/Pennsylvania will remain very important targets for democrats even if they seem to be slipping there in general.

Georgia, Arizona and to a lesser extent North Carolina look like juicy targets in general going forward.

Texas? Hate to say it, but we just saw that it really isn't there yet, unless the democrat landslides. Maybe with strong latino appeal it will be there about a decade from now.

[DabbingSanta]

The only reason we are even discussing this is because of the stupid electoral college. It is crazy that democrats have to win by upwards of 5 %-points now to actual win elections. If it wasn't for the electoral college things would look incredibly bleak for republicans now.

Well, until there's reform, that is the system that has to be worked with.  Plus from a constitutional point of view, abolishing the EC seems pretty unlikely.  I expect at some point we will more see states allocate EVs based on Congressional District results, like we do in Nebraska and Maine.  That might result in more contentious gerrymandering battles too! Oh the joys of a republic....

[Hope For A New Era]

Ohio is gone, at least for the moment. We'll see how much more realigned those suburbs get, but for now it looks like it's going the way of Missouri. Or Colorado in reverse, and Brown 2018 is Gardner 2014?

Florida...we'll have to see. We need to figure out how to shed the "socialism" label, and figure out how to appeal to Latinos. It seems like that's the big thing Biden's campaign missed.

[GP270watch]

  Florida is going to be a tough get for Democrats. The Republicans have built a wall of voters, the majority of which are not swingable. It will still be a margins state but they just have better infrastructure to get to their number and we don't, it's that simple.