Is Ohio and Florida gone for democrats?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, I was told by S019 that I was crazy for thinking DSanris and Kemp had a chance in 2022 midterms, not, DeSantis has a 60 percent approvals

Still waiting for pbower2A who had Trump at 44 percent approvals, he make the same mistake every Election cycle as Moderator, that D's are gonna win a landslide

[It’s so Joever]

It depends on our strategy from here on out. Even if Biden wins, it’s clear this is not sustainable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gone is a strong word re: Florida, but we're not winning there statewide (at least in a major race) until we figure out a way to simultaneously A) get Hillary 2016 numbers with Hispanics and B) Biden 2020 numbers everywhere else.  

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Gone is a strong word re: Florida, but we're not winning there statewide (at least in a major race) until we figure out a way to simultaneously A) get Hillary 2016 numbers with Hispanics and B) Biden 2020 numbers everywhere else.  

All they really need to do is get Obama 2012 numbers with both groups. It’s not rocket science. Actually show up in rural/WWC areas and show people you at least kind of care about them. Obama said the difference between his rural performance and Hillary’s was that he “showed up” (his words) in rural areas and put in the time there.

What a lot of Dems don’t seem to get it it’s not about winning those places. It is about losing them by less than they do now.

[2016]

  Florida is going to be a tough get for Democrats. The Republicans have built a wall of voters, the majority of which are not swingable. It will still be a margins state but they just have better infrastructure to get to their number and we don't, it's that simple.

 

The Republicans simply have the best State Party Infrastructure of the entire Country down there. During Election Day I was able to see a LIVE GOTV Turnout Spreadsheet from Florida GOP Party Vice Chairman Christian Ziegler and you could basically pinpoint how they turn out their Voters where it matters. Honestly, I've nerver seen anything like that. It was pretty impressive.

[Catalyst138]

Yes, both states are gone going forward. The Republican party is now the party of the white working class, and this won't change regardless of who manages to win today.

Eh, I mostly agree. But I really think people undersell how fluid some parts of the electorate can be. I could be wrong here, but I think with some Hispanics there is a huge response to incumbency. They seem to like the familiar. That’s not to excuse Democrats (and this is not just a Biden problem, the blame does not go solely to him) poor messaging/out reach to that community. But the re-election of Clinton, Bush, Obama, and, now, Trump saw favorable swings toward the incumbent. I think the fact remains that this is a naturally Democratic constituency, but Democrats have to work for it (see how they responded after Bush’s strong performance with that group in ‘04).

White working class voters are a much larger problem. I don’t think many of them are coming back. Apologies to Hillary because it didn’t seem to be her. They were looking for a reason to bolt for a while and they did en masse in 2016. What’s developed in 2020 is that rather than being “missing” white voters, these voters are no longer missing. They’re voting. Truth be told all the years that we were told how Democrats benefit from high turn out doesn’t look to be true at all.

Democrats benefitting from high turnout wasn’t a lie all along, it was true in 2018. It just wasn’t true this time.