CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Pollster]

Well give some examples


Because by definition any conversation, any attack can in theory be dodged. For example if you attack Manchin on the gun control bill he cosponsored in 2013, he could very well respond that he is a longtime gun owner, that never he would threaten the 2nd amendment, he could obviously highlight the fact he was endorsed numerous times by the NRA.... if I follow you logic, a logic which was probably shared by republican strategists, Manchin is a unbeatable titan and no attack can stick to him.

Frankly, if I were running a campaign against Manchin I'd use the same playbook Cramer used against Heitkamp.

"We all like Joe, but we don't like the way Joe votes in Washington."
"It's not about him, it's about the way he chooses to lead."
"President Trump needs somebody who's with him through thick and thin, not when it's convenient."
"When he votes against [something to do with a Trump priority that wasn't accomplished, like the wall], it shows what being in Washington all this time has done to him."

This nationalizes the race and evokes partisan identity. The only possible response to attacks like this is explanative defensiveness that tacitly confirms the accusation. The voter (most of whom have supported this candidate before) is not made to feel blamed or stupid for their previous vote, but rather sympathized with and given a way out. The incumbent is trapped responding with something like "I'll work with the President when it's in [state]'s interest, and oppose him when it's not" which only further evokes partisan identity and reinforces that the incumbent is not aligned with the voter in a partisan way as much as the voter probably wants them to be. It's really easy to get buried in this trap, especially when running in a state that voted 42 points against your party.

Spend $90 million on making this the narrative and you win.

For the record, I'm not a Republican strategist, I'm a Democratic one, and it is paradoxically a lot easier to strategize against members of your own party rather than the other (typically because you are more likely to believe your own bullsh**t to a fault when assessing the vulnerabilities of the opposition party and the wherewithal of their voters).

[VAR]

I really hope Young Kim wins this time

[Pollster]

It’s whether you allow them to dodge it or not that makes all the difference (which Daines didn’t do).

Can you talk more about how Daines handled this race? I didn't work on it or follow it as closely as I originally wanted to, and I'm curious as to how he produced that final margin.

[Benjamin Frank]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

[GALeftist]

Is it 100% over for Cisneros? They're only separated by about 3000 votes, though I have no idea how many votes haven't been counted.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Cisneros was killed by Trump's gains with Asians and Hispanics. 99% sure Biden won the district by less than Hillary, which I doubt is true in CA-48 and know isn't true in CA-45 (Clinton +5 to Biden +11).

[2016]

It’s whether you allow them to dodge it or not that makes all the difference (which Daines didn’t do).

Can you talk more about how Daines handled this race? I didn't work on it or follow it as closely as I originally wanted to, and I'm curious as to how he produced that final margin.

The Montana Senate Race was more about Steve Bullock then it was about Steve Daines IMO.
Bullock was open to "Court Packing". That hurt him!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it 100% over for Cisneros? They're only separated by about 3000 votes, though I have no idea how many votes haven't been counted.

Not yet

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

[2016]

Quick Update on the Malliotakis vs Rose Race in New York's 11th Congressional Race

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1325614214552104960

If those Figures are correct there is no way Max Rose can win this!

Calling it now: Congresswoman-elect Nicolle Malliotakis!

[Benjamin Frank]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

[Benjamin Frank]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

Oh no. You read it wrong and then I just read what you wrote wrongly.  They didn't call it 'back on Tuesday,'  'they called it back' on Tuesday (more likely Wednesday or Thursday.)  Meaning, not that it has been declared for Malinowski, but that it had been declared for Malinowski initially, but now it's undeclared.  

[Roll Roons]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

How much does it need to break for him to win?

[Roll Roons]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

How much does it need to break for him to win?

Tbh, I'm not 100% sure. But it's not an easy victory by any means. At the very least, it will be much closer than the 2018 race, and it's clear that Malinowski is running far behind Biden.

[Frenchrepublican]

Well give some examples


Because by definition any conversation, any attack can in theory be dodged. For example if you attack Manchin on the gun control bill he cosponsored in 2013, he could very well respond that he is a longtime gun owner, that never he would threaten the 2nd amendment, he could obviously highlight the fact he was endorsed numerous times by the NRA.... if I follow you logic, a logic which was probably shared by republican strategists, Manchin is a unbeatable titan and no attack can stick to him.

Frankly, if I were running a campaign against Manchin I'd use the same playbook Cramer used against Heitkamp.

"We all like Joe, but we don't like the way Joe votes in Washington."
"It's not about him, it's about the way he chooses to lead."
"President Trump needs somebody who's with him through thick and thin, not when it's convenient."
"When he votes against [something to do with a Trump priority that wasn't accomplished, like the wall], it shows what being in Washington all this time has done to him."

This nationalizes the race and evokes partisan identity. The only possible response to attacks like this is explanative defensiveness that tacitly confirms the accusation. The voter (most of whom have supported this candidate before) is not made to feel blamed or stupid for their previous vote, but rather sympathized with and given a way out. The incumbent is trapped responding with something like "I'll work with the President when it's in [state]'s interest, and oppose him when it's not" which only further evokes partisan identity and reinforces that the incumbent is not aligned with the voter in a partisan way as much as the voter probably wants them to be. It's really easy to get buried in this trap, especially when running in a state that voted 42 points against your party.

Spend $90 million on making this the narrative and you win.

For the record, I'm not a Republican strategist, I'm a Democratic one, and it is paradoxically a lot easier to strategize against members of your own party rather than the other (typically because you are more likely to believe your own bullsh**t to a fault when assessing the vulnerabilities of the opposition party and the wherewithal of their voters).

Yeah I agree with you, that's a good strategy. Now TBH if you want to defeat an incumbent politician you have to air some substantial attacks too, Heitkamp for example was also targeted on her political positions and votes in Congress.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/heitkamps-embrace-of-illegal-immigrants-hit-by-trump-aligned-group

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0gAnemsfqI&feature=youtu.be

[VAR]

I think Cisneros was killed by Trump's gains with Asians and Hispanics. 99% sure Biden won the district by less than Hillary, which I doubt is true in CA-48 and know isn't true in CA-45 (Clinton +5 to Biden +11).

Biden won CA-48 by 2.

[n1240]

I think Cisneros was killed by Trump's gains with Asians and Hispanics. 99% sure Biden won the district by less than Hillary, which I doubt is true in CA-48 and know isn't true in CA-45 (Clinton +5 to Biden +11).

Not going to do a full estimate/calculation of CA-39 because the usability of the LA precinct data is bad and I can't find it from San Bernardino, but Biden is up 6.2% in the Orange County portion of the district while Kim is up 4.8%. I've gone through a few of the LA county precincts and find that Cisneros is doing even worse relative to Biden - Biden outperforms Cisneros by around 20% on average in these precincts (extreme example is a Biden+22/Kim+5 precinct). Based on this info I think it's fair to conclude that Biden is currently doing better than Clinton in CA-39, where he possibly leads by around 11% (could go down after LA finishes counting though).

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1325825285955186688

[Pollster]

Well give some examples


Because by definition any conversation, any attack can in theory be dodged. For example if you attack Manchin on the gun control bill he cosponsored in 2013, he could very well respond that he is a longtime gun owner, that never he would threaten the 2nd amendment, he could obviously highlight the fact he was endorsed numerous times by the NRA.... if I follow you logic, a logic which was probably shared by republican strategists, Manchin is a unbeatable titan and no attack can stick to him.

Frankly, if I were running a campaign against Manchin I'd use the same playbook Cramer used against Heitkamp.

"We all like Joe, but we don't like the way Joe votes in Washington."
"It's not about him, it's about the way he chooses to lead."
"President Trump needs somebody who's with him through thick and thin, not when it's convenient."
"When he votes against [something to do with a Trump priority that wasn't accomplished, like the wall], it shows what being in Washington all this time has done to him."

This nationalizes the race and evokes partisan identity. The only possible response to attacks like this is explanative defensiveness that tacitly confirms the accusation. The voter (most of whom have supported this candidate before) is not made to feel blamed or stupid for their previous vote, but rather sympathized with and given a way out. The incumbent is trapped responding with something like "I'll work with the President when it's in [state]'s interest, and oppose him when it's not" which only further evokes partisan identity and reinforces that the incumbent is not aligned with the voter in a partisan way as much as the voter probably wants them to be. It's really easy to get buried in this trap, especially when running in a state that voted 42 points against your party.

Spend $90 million on making this the narrative and you win.

For the record, I'm not a Republican strategist, I'm a Democratic one, and it is paradoxically a lot easier to strategize against members of your own party rather than the other (typically because you are more likely to believe your own bullsh**t to a fault when assessing the vulnerabilities of the opposition party and the wherewithal of their voters).

Yeah I agree with you, that's a good strategy. Now TBH if you want to defeat an incumbent politician you have to air some substantial attacks too, Heitkamp for example was also targeted on her political positions and votes in Congress.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/heitkamps-embrace-of-illegal-immigrants-hit-by-trump-aligned-group

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0gAnemsfqI&feature=youtu.be

Both of those ads do exactly what I outlined, quite literally to the T, so I'm not sure what your point here is. Focus on issues Democrats lose on, "Good people in both parties," "a Senator who doesn't just talk like North Dakota, but who votes like North Dakota." Activates partisan identity, doesn't make the voter feel blamed, forces the incumbent to either further activate partisan identity or engage on issues that benefit the challenger. In the North Dakota race in particular, the Republicans' coordination and message discipline between the candidate and the IE's was quite remarkable, something they struggled with elsewhere. This is extremely important, so you don't have competing narratives going. The DCCC and especially the DSCC are extremely bad at this.

Competitive campaigns aren't as simple as airing a bunch of ads throwing things at the wall. Air space isn't limitless, oversaturation is real, and often times you are sharing the political conversation with other candidates in other races (and their IE supporters). Everything needs to boil down to the same established narrative that defines the opponent in a sturdy way that is difficult to maneuver out of, while giving yourself a rock solid definition before the same can be done to you.

[wbrocks67]

CA still has a ton of votes out and we have no idea what's remaining. Who knows how those races will turn out.

[2016]

CA still has a ton of votes out and we have no idea what's remaining. Who knows how those races will turn out.

Democrats voted more early than usual in CA this year so my gut feel is that the remaining Votes especially in the Kim vs Cisneros and Steel vs Rouda Races scew Republican.

Garcia vs Smith remains a total coin flip.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325885712978350082?s=19

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325889625441923077

No mention of NJ-07.