CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

(puts on my naive innocent hat for purposes of drawing out an answer)

But California has an Independent Redistricting Commission as a well-intentioned reform. Are you telling me this Independent Redistricting Commission will suddenly draw districts in Orange County in a way to screw over a particular party in a partisan-purposed manner?

Yes?

what do you think happened in AZ in 2010?

Dems stacked the commission in AZ in 2010 and stacked it this year in California. Arizona Rs have likely stacked the commission this year though.

To show you how bad the AZ map , all of the D legislative districts were underpopulated while all the R districts were overpopulated.

[Pollster]

VOX called Tillis in NC as well
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/10/21536477/senate-2020-north-carolina-thom-tillis-winner

Vox uses Decision Desk.

[lfromnj]

I don't think they can justify dropping Yuma from the blue seat. Latino VRA and all. Plus the committee has to kind-of justify their decisions and dropping Gila and parts of Apache from the northern district might not be doable. Also, it might screw over Gosar. Anyhow, this is what I have for a non-Maricopa AZ map:

Yuma can probably be dropped, considering the racial polarization isn't even that high in Tucson

Anyway I don't know what the commission draws, but  Kim(if she wins)/Calvert/Issa probably play musical chairs over there aka 3 seats to 2.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

Yup gotta take into account the bias of the commisions(generally who controls it from the begining)

AZ will be a lean R commision, AZ01 is gonna be a northern district that will be Likely R and AZ02will recede a bit from inner Tucson.

CA will def be Dem heavy too,

Michigan will probably be D favorable considering they are borderline teaching the commission members critical race theory.

It looks pretty hard to draw 4 safe or likely D seats in Orange, no ?

Not at all if you group Huntington Beach with Long Beach and South County with Oceanside/Encinitas. Either way, you can make the coastal seat quite Democratic with a nice dose of Irvine.

[2016]

CA-25 is lost I think.

Smith now leads by 1,300K according to the CA SoS. Looks like more Ballots came in late last Night from LA County
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

Yup gotta take into account the bias of the commisions(generally who controls it from the begining)

AZ will be a lean R commision, AZ01 is gonna be a northern district that will be Likely R and AZ02will recede a bit from inner Tucson.

CA will def be Dem heavy too,

Michigan will probably be D favorable considering they are borderline teaching the commission members critical race theory.

It looks pretty hard to draw 4 safe or likely D seats in Orange, no ?

Not at all if you group Huntington Beach with Long Beach and South County with Oceanside/Encinitas. Either way, you can make the coastal seat quite Democratic with a nice dose of Irvine.

Can they do a such thing ? I thought that they had to respect as much as possible counties borders and not splitting communities of interests.

[lfromnj]

CA-25 is lost I think.

Smith now leads by 1,300K according to the CA SoS. Looks like more Ballots came in late last Night from LA County
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25

White suburban woman power > Male Hispanic power is the whole ball game of the election.

[VAR]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen".

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't think they can justify dropping Yuma from the blue seat. Latino VRA and all. Plus the committee has to kind-of justify their decisions and dropping Gila and parts of Apache from the northern district might not be doable. Also, it might screw over Gosar. Anyhow, this is what I have for a non-Maricopa AZ map:

Yuma can probably be dropped.

I really don't think so. That makes it a white majority seat and forcing two Latino VRA seats is really, really easy.

[LimoLiberal]

CA-25 is lost I think.

Smith now leads by 1,300K according to the CA SoS. Looks like more Ballots came in late last Night from LA County
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25

Ventura County will come through.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

[VAR]

Howard County, Iowa:
Trump +26
Hinson +22
Ernst +14

Pro-soybeans #populism 

[lfromnj]

Howard County, Iowa:
Trump +26
Hinson +22
Ernst +14

Pro-soybeans #populism 

This was a Obama +20 County

RIP

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-vs-kean-wont-be-settled-today-and-maybe-not-until-the-weekend/

Looks like NJ-07 will take some time. God f**king dammit, how are they so bad at this?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

Fixed it, I don't know how you made the mess up, must have been thinking of another race.

[VAR]

AP calls CA-48 for Michelle Steel (R).

[GALeftist]

Howard County, Iowa:
Trump +26
Hinson +22
Ernst +14

Pro-soybeans #populism 

This was a Obama +20 County

RIP

#WalkAwayFromIowa

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, CA-25 is just too... "Karen". isn't racist enough to re-elect a white supremacist endorsing extremist.

FTFY

Fixed it, I don't know how you made the mess up, must have been thinking of another race.

Mike Garcia endorsed Trump and wanted him to win, yes?  Then guess what?  He supported a white supremacist.  This really isn't that complicated.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

Yup gotta take into account the bias of the commisions(generally who controls it from the begining)

AZ will be a lean R commision, AZ01 is gonna be a northern district that will be Likely R and AZ02will recede a bit from inner Tucson.

CA will def be Dem heavy too,

Michigan will probably be D favorable considering they are borderline teaching the commission members critical race theory.

It looks pretty hard to draw 4 safe or likely D seats in Orange, no ?

Not at all if you group Huntington Beach with Long Beach and South County with Oceanside/Encinitas. Either way, you can make the coastal seat quite Democratic with a nice dose of Irvine.

Can they do a such thing ? I thought that they had to respect as much as possible counties borders and not splitting communities of interests.

They can't split COIs but CA-49 already does the San Diego split which isn't hard to justify. And this particular CA-48 respects COIs better than the current one:

[wbrocks67]

I don't think Cunningham will likely come back, but it seems unclear how many ballots are still out in NC. Seems odd they would call it without even getting *any* of the returns. They might as well call GA then?

[2016]

VOX called Tillis in NC as well
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/10/21536477/senate-2020-north-carolina-thom-tillis-winner

Vox uses Decision Desk.

NBC NEWS says on their Website that they estimated that 175K Ballots still need to be counted in NC see here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-senate-results?icid=election_usmap
If this call by DDHQ stands Tillis would have won both of his Senate Elections in 2014 and 2020 with less than 50 % of the Vote. Quite IRONIC but I'll take it.

[GALeftist]

NYT just called CA-48 for Steel.

[Torie]

I keep readings these posts that a Dem gerrymander in CA is baked into the cake, because Newsom appointed a bunch of hack county auditors who in turn picked a bunch of false flag Pubs and NOP's to be on the commission who are also really Dem hacks. For those of you who accept the challenge, if any, might you favor the old man with some evidence of all of this and links, or should I put all of these surmises and assertions in the same box as Trump's assertion that the election was stolen from him due to massive fraud? Thank you for your kind attention in advance.

[lfromnj]

I keep readings these posts that a Dem gerrymander in CA is baked into the cake, because Newsom appointed a bunch of hack county auditors who in turn picked a bunch of false flag Pubs and NOP's to be on the commission who are also really Dem hacks. For those of you who accept the challenge, if any, might you favor the old man with some evidence of all of this and links, or should I put all of these surmises and assertions in the same box as Trump's assertion that the election was stolen from him due to massive fraud. Thank you for your kind attention in advance.

This really isn't that hard

AZ has a gun store owner as one of the final 5 "indys"

CA has a planned parenthood donating Republican.

[VAR]

Marshall County, Minnesota:
Trump +48
Lewis +35