2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ExSky]

Hold on to your asses.

[ExSky]

Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.

[ExSky]

Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.

Source?

Wasserman and Cohn are talking about it on twitter

[ExSky]

Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.

Source?

Also this guys twitter. A lot of the panic was that Republicans were leading in Broward early on. Now the Dems have pulled ahead and appear to be pulling away.

 https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99

[ExSky]

Happy election day everyone. Unfortunately my plan to work through today to make the time go by fell through, as I am home sick. Hopefully it's just a cold, which is what my gut is telling me. I'm awaiting results of a COVID test. I'm glad I voted early this year!

Time to Join the sh**tposting fest on atlas!

[ExSky]

Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.

Can we wait until the afternoon to make statements like this? Wasserman just clowned himself by extrapolating from 7:30AM data and we're about to make the same mistake an hour later?

I’m going on what Cohn stated...

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

GOP needs to be running ahead by more than 51% compared to 48.5% in 2016. That’s nowhere near enough, and that’s not accounting for the Democrat rush that’ll happen later.

[ExSky]

Panic time

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323624088468901888

1) Republicans had a rush at opening but Democrats are now keeping pace.

2) This doesn't include Miami Dade, where there are a lot of outstanding Democratic votes.

They are not keeping pace, it only slowed down a bit for Rs because hardly it could go better.

If dems are leading in Broward by 2k how do you think are they doing in MD?

The republican burnoff isn’t going to slow down. margins will be far more favorable for Biden as the day progresses. It’s inevitable

[ExSky]

Margins in Florida have already begun to even out for E Day. Republicans simply don’t have the E Day margin people thought they would.

Can we wait until the afternoon to make statements like this? Wasserman just clowned himself by extrapolating from 7:30AM data and we're about to make the same mistake an hour later?

I’m going on what Cohn stated...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323617280190750722?s=19
Yep he's really saying that..

Now post the other tweet where says what I repeated. Any imbecile can post random tweets.

[ExSky]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

Your obsession with Red GA is beyond concerning

I’m pretty sure he’s just trying to convince himself at this point.

[ExSky]

Touting E Day  percentage leads and comparing them to 2016 means you’re in a bad spot.

[ExSky]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Doomers and Blues simply are not going to believe this and/or ignore it. This is a devastating sign in The Villages.

[ExSky]

What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals

Ignoring D heavy counties makes them feel better. Dems are blowing past their 2016 benchmarks and GOP are not going fast enough to pass or even match theirs.

[ExSky]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

NPA’s are not going to break to Trump this cycle, which is going to leave Sumter short of the +39 margin trump won by in 2016.

[ExSky]

Does anybody *actually* know what's happening in Florida or is this all a bunch of assumption and conjecture?

It's clear to me that Republicans are having a huge turnout today, but I think literally everybody expected this. I can't make heads or tails out of NPA's and I don't really know how they vote.

And I'm not sure how you guys are coming up with these percentages Trump needs to hit.

We know far more than we’ve ever known about Florida due to the massive early vote that’s nearly equaled 2016 overall turnout. We can see how each party is comparing to how they did in 2016 and if they’re hitting county benchmarks. The simple fact of the matter is that Dems are surpassing their marks while the GOP is at best matching them in places. That’s without factoring in that NPAs are comfortably expected to go Biden this cycle and there  are far more R->D voters than D -> R voters.

[ExSky]

Dems at this thread after massively obsessing on early voting trends: Don't look at the numbers (even though there's nothing else to look for right now). Sumter county pops out: LOOOOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS ITS BAD FOR TRUMP

lol *Atlas

I’ve no idea what this guy is talking about. We’ve been encouraged by EV trends the entire time. And it’s starting to show now. GOP doesn’t have much left to turnout in their strongholds whole Dems are mining far more than they did in Broward/Pinellas and very like Miami Dade on E Day.

[ExSky]

75K Reps lead now

Slowing waaaay down. Love the see it. And that’s WITHOUT Miami Dade and Sarasota. And add that to the fact that Dems come out in the afternoon in Florida...that Ballot lead is lookin mighty tiny.

[ExSky]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Nowhere near enough and the best part of their E Day push is already gone.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/miamiherald/status/1323677348483469313?s=12

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1323680180569714688

This doesn't seem good does it ?

Far ahead of Sinemas benchmark. Relax.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Dont know how you can see these numbers and not be optimistic. The Republican E Day push that was so touted is not materializing as much as anticipated. NPAs are conservatively breaking 55-45 to Biden and there are way more R > D voters than D > R voters.

Keep in mind that these ballot returns are without a Host of counties that will overall lean a bit towards Biden as well. And Florida Dems vote towards the end of the day while Florida GOP votes early on E Day.

Of course I don’t have any official metrics but all of that together is making me increasingly confident.  

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.