2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

The Michigan electors had their addresses posted on the certificate. Isn't that...a problem?

They're all Democrats chosen by the Michigan Democratic party. Failure to vote for the Democratic candidates will result in their automatic resignation and cancellation of their vote per Michigan election law. 

I think the worry is more that they'll face personal threats from the Trump cult. We are talking about a state where Trump's supporters planned on kidnapping or murdering the governor. What happens to their votes if they're unable to show up and vote? And even if they do, violent retaliation afterward instigated by Mr. Trump seems worryingly likely.

Only a few people on Atlas know that their addresses are on that certificate ... and Whitmer, who signed it.

It's fairly unlikely that random Trump supporters know this fact and especially not the violent Trump nutjobs.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Are we going to get to 800 pages?

Probably not, but prove me wrong.

[Kamala's side hoe]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

[Battista Minola 1616]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

Personally I take all exit polls with a huge grain of salt, but judging from the image you attached AP seems likely to be the most accurate.

[Battista Minola 1616]

By the way, it feels crazy that more than a month has passed since Election Day and a couple of states still haven't certified their results.
The Electoral College votes on December 14th, if I recall correctly, so in eight days.

In the meantime let's try to reach page 800 before this thread gets locked, like we did for the "Veepstakes" thread and its page 300.

[Tender Branson]

By the way, it feels crazy that more than a month has passed since Election Day and a couple of states still haven't certified their results.
The Electoral College votes on December 14th, if I recall correctly, so in eight days.

In the meantime let's try to reach page 800 before this thread gets locked, like we did for the "Veepstakes" thread and its page 300.

It's only a few states left.

MO, NJ, CO.

They will all do so this coming week.

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how fast people have become so paranoid with other people knowing where they live. You only have to go back to the 90's or early 00's when everyone had phone books with every address in your local area. You had to actively opt out if you wanted to be unlisted. If you were mentioned or quoted in your newspaper, they would typically include your home address as well. Crazy how cell phones and the internet changed the culture on this.

[Kamala's side hoe]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

Personally I take all exit polls with a huge grain of salt, but judging from the image you attached AP seems likely to be the most accurate.

It's odd how AP had so few Asian voters. They made up only 2% of the national sample, with another 1% being either Native American or Pacific Islander, and 3% being "Other".

[AGA]

So when is this Kraken supposed to come out?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So when is this Kraken supposed to come out?

2050 libbytard this was the plan all along 😎.

Q PATRIOTS RISE

/s

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

Navigator and AP are more accurate in my opinion. The Edison one is bad.

[Non Swing Voter]

Edison looks like garbage.  Navigator looks the best.  However the weighting looks off.  There's no way whites were 75% of the electorate.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's very challenging to do exit polling when so much of the voting was done by mail.  Evidently, everyone failed spectacularly in this challenge.

[Annatar]

The AP and Navigator white vote share is off by a lot as previous posters have said, whites were estimated to comprise 67% of eligible voters this year, whites turnout out at slightly above the average turnout as Hispanics and Asians turn out at lower rates, whites were unlikely more than 70% of all voters, the AP at 74% white and Navigator at 75% white is far to high.

[Hammy]

It's amazing how fast people have become so paranoid with other people knowing where they live. You only have to go back to the 90's or early 00's when everyone had phone books with every address in your local area. You had to actively opt out if you wanted to be unlisted. If you were mentioned or quoted in your newspaper, they would typically include your home address as well. Crazy how cell phones and the internet changed the culture on this.

It's really made people accessible to those who see them as enemies when they probably wouldn't even be aware of their existence at all otherwise.

[jimrtex]

The Michigan electors had their addresses posted on the certificate. Isn't that...a problem?

They're all Democrats chosen by the Michigan Democratic party. Failure to vote for the Democratic candidates will result in their automatic resignation and cancellation of their vote per Michigan election law. 

I think the worry is more that they'll face personal threats from the Trump cult. We are talking about a state where Trump's supporters planned on kidnapping or murdering the governor. What happens to their votes if they're unable to show up and vote? And even if they do, violent retaliation afterward instigated by Mr. Trump seems worryingly likely.

The Socialist Workers Party in Washington threatened to sue if the addresses of their elector candidates have been revealed. They were revealed. I do not know if they have sued.

The certificates of ascertainment for Kentucky, Michigan, Nebraska, and Washington list the addresses of the elector candidates (Michigan only lists those of the winning candidates - in 2016 it was the Republicans, in 2020 it was the Democrats).

The certificates of Idaho and Maine, list towns or cities.

Those for AL, AZ, FL, GA, LA, MA, MN, MT, ND, OH, PA, SD, TN. WI, and WY list names only.

The address of candidates are likely public record even if they are not on the official certificates.

You may or may not recall the campaign in 2016 by Democratic, Clinton, and/or foreign agents to dox Republican electors in an attempt to get them to betray Trump. They were receiving 1000s of mails and emails.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

Personally I take all exit polls with a huge grain of salt, but judging from the image you attached AP seems likely to be the most accurate.

It's odd how AP had so few Asian voters. They made up only 2% of the national sample, with another 1% being either Native American or Pacific Islander, and 3% being "Other".

Only 2%??? That's fairly shocking.
Does AP have much of a history of underpolling demos in its exit polls?

[Kamala's side hoe]

What's the Atlas consensus on exit polls? Do y'all think AP, Edison, or Navigator was the most accurate? I remember people were saying AP most accurately predicted state results.

Personally I take all exit polls with a huge grain of salt, but judging from the image you attached AP seems likely to be the most accurate.

It's odd how AP had so few Asian voters. They made up only 2% of the national sample, with another 1% being either Native American or Pacific Islander, and 3% being "Other".

Only 2%??? That's fairly shocking.
Does AP have much of a history of underpolling demos in its exit polls?

As much as I want to believe the overall Asian vote was 70-28 Biden, 2% is probably too low for a representative Asian voter sample. AAPI Fund/Latino Decisions and AALDEF (not nationally representative) both came up with similar numbers (68-30 Biden).

[Tender Branson]

NJ has just certified its results at a 10:30 election commission meeting.

Performing a largely ceremonial function, the New Jersey State Board of Canvassers today certified that the state’s 14 electoral votes will go to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Biden carried New Jersey 725,061 votes against Donald Trump, 2,608,335 to 1,883,274.

The board also certified the re-election of U.S. Senator Cory Booker to another six-year term.  Booker received more votes than any statewide candidate in New Jersey history.

Booker received 2,541,178 votes, with 1,817,052 voters casting ballots for Republican Rik Mehta.  Despite losing, Mehta also set a record for the most votes ever received by a Republican statewide candidate in New Jersey.

The re-election of 12 incumbent members of the U.S. House of Representatives – Christopher Smith (R-Hamilton), Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-Long Branch), Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D-Paterson), Albio Sires (D-West New York), Donald Norcross (D-Camden), Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing), Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff), Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) – were also certified.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/its-official-biden-carries-new-jersey/

That only leaves CO and MO uncertified.

[Tender Branson]

The recount in GA is complete, which means the SoS and Governor will re-certify results there today:

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-georgia-elections-4eeea3b24f10de886bcdeab6c26b680a

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Andy Kim moved to Moorestown? Sad.

[BlueSwan]

Aren't all states supposed to certify before december 8th?

[emailking]

Why do sites like CNN still say 99% reporting for all states even after certification?

[Tender Branson]

Aren't all states supposed to certify before december 8th?

No, they need to „resolve all disputes“ about EC allocation until tomorrow, but theoretically can certify as long as the EC hasn’t met and voted.

So, the last possible day would be Sunday or even Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Why do sites like CNN still say 99% reporting for all states even after certification?

Because news sites suck and stop updating after a while.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission like Brazil, Germany etc. where every state submits their vote updates until there’s a final result.