2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

2020 AMERICAN ELECTION EVE POLL

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

To better understand the emerging role of AAPI voters, we conducted a separate poll in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District (CD-07). Below we highlight some key findings and supplemental materials on both the national and congressional poll.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)


GA-7 poll of Asian voters- N=302 +/-5.7% (Oct 23-Nov 2, 2020)

President: 69-31 Biden
Senate: 62-38 Ossoff
House: 62-36 Bordeaux

Significant cross-over vote from Rep to Dem (29% in Presidential; 21% in House race)

[Crumpets]

Nate Cohn: The races in Arizona and Georgia have not been called by several TV networks, but they’re essentially over. Here's why: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/upshot/election-arizona-georgia-results.html

[wbrocks67]

I don't think that ruling involves late ballots. I think it involves ballots cured after election day.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-court-secretary-of-state-changed-deadline.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Sorry about the Fox News link.

Edit: So ballots cured by the 9th are fine but nothing after that?

Yes. This does NOT count the regular 10K ballots received after election day. This is about ballots that needed to be cured. But it appears that they are fine up to the 9th (6 days after), but NOT the 9 days after that was later determined.

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn: The races in Arizona and Georgia have not been called by several TV networks, but they’re essentially over. Here's why: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/upshot/election-arizona-georgia-results.html

Georgia I guess i get, b/c its officially getting a recount, so they're just waiting for that (even though we all know it won't produce 14K magic votes), but Arizona's recount margin is within <0.1%, so there's no way Trump is making that up with what is left.

[wbrocks67]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

About ~2K more provisionals out of Allegheny. Biden nets another 600k votes. Up 54.6K statewide now.

Joe Biden 3,393,231
Donald Trump 3,338,645

Atleast ~7K more provisionals left in Allegheny, with ~20K left in Philly. Also ~10K mail ins left in Philly/Allegheny.

[Person Man]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

About ~2K more provisionals out of Allegheny. Biden nets another 600k votes. Up 54.6K statewide now.

Joe Biden 3,393,231
Donald Trump 3,338,645

Atleast ~7K more provisionals left in Allegheny, with ~20K left in Philly. Also ~10K mail ins left in Philly/Allegheny.

Biden will get to 50% but Trump may slightly over perform Casey’s predictions.

[WD]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

[Left Wing]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

You won't be laughing in a month when Faith Spotted Eagle is elected president of the United States.

[Alben Barkley]

Supreme Court already ruled that faithless electors can be punished, most if not all states that matter here have faithless elector laws and also the electors are chosen by the winning party and thus will be DEMOCRATS.

Good luck convincing them to break the law AND betray their own party to vote for you, Donnie!

By the way, some Democrats were in this exact state of denial in 2016. Remember the “Hamilton Electors?” Group of Hillary electors based out of Washington that tried to convince a bunch of Republicans to vote for Colin Powell instead of Trump. In the end, they were the only ones who did it and it just cost Hillary votes.

[DrScholl]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

He probably doesn't even know that electors are committed party members who will not flip.

[Nyvin]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

Lol, yeah, okay, good luck with that.   ~37 faithless electors huh?

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, sure, Trump is going to be re-relected with the help of dozens of faithless Biden electors. The delusion is real.

[Mike88]

Don't know from where, maybe Pima, I don't know, but more votes from Arizona were dumped:

Biden +2,675
Trump + 2,920

Biden's lead now at 11,390.

[Mike88]

Don't know from where, maybe Pima, I don't know, but more votes from Arizona were dumped:

Biden +2,675
Trump + 2,920

Biden's lead now at 11,390.

Only 16,707 ballots remain to be counted, it seems. Not all will be counted probably, which means it's now mathematically impossible for Trump to surpass Biden.

[MATTROSE94]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

[Badger]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

I suspect you are trolling as no one could possibly believe such an impossibility, but please, explain how.

[ultraviolet]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

[MATTROSE94]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

[Mike88]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

[MATTROSE94]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

[Mike88]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

Meaning, a lot can happen: the election challenges could collapse completely and Trump could even give up, although not necessarily conceding.

[Non Swing Voter]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

what are you talking about?  the electors are party insiders and hyper-partisans.  You think Stacey Abrams is going to switch her vote to Trump after spending the last 2 years of her life trying to get him out of office?

[Bootes Void]

[Wiz in Wis]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

Just in case you are serious, let's talk about who the electors are in these states. In Wisconsin, for example, you're talking about Trump getting the following people to vote for him:

Democratic Governor Tony Evers
Democratic Lt Gov Mandela Barnes
St Rep Shelia Stubbs (D-Madison)
St Sen Patty Schachtner (D)
Dem Party Chair Ben Winkler...

I could go on.

After 2016, I doubt you see a single faithless elector for Biden.

[DrScholl]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

It will be the Democratic slates of electors that will be casting the votes and those slates are full of elected officials, party officials and others who are not going to flip. It's not going to happen.