2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see. So best guess is that Biden nets 50k votes out of Suffolk (winning VBM by 33 points, losing the county overall by 3) and maybe 60k out of Westchester (winning VBM by 60 points and the county as a whole by 35)

Honestly, I think those could both be underestimates.

Might be, but Biden won the NYC VBM by 72 points, so there's a clear ceiling. And it's not too much of a stretch to imagine well-to-do Westchester and Long Island Republicans being more comfortable voting by mail than their Upstate counterparts.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334322124564164612

Kansas did drop another 39,000 votes at certification with a slight Biden advantage so the margin was slightly narrower and the swing greater than current indicated on atlas

[neostassenite31]

Virtually all of the states used the same exact templates for their ascertainment certificates from 2016 except with new vote totals and electors, etc.   

[Tender Branson]

43/51 states now certified.

15/51 states have submitted their certificates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

43/51 states now certified.

15/51 states have submitted their certificates.

Can you make a map of the states that submitted their certificates? Just for fun.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1334383722792185857

SIRWOODBURY VINDICATED

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1334383722792185857

SIRWOODBURY VINDICATED

Just a guess that Amish voters would take Mass restrictions and other covid-19 tainment measures with as much and typically as the most ardent covid nihilist. Not saying the Amish or necessarily Covent annihilist, but they would be just as likely to see the mask Man dates as infringement upon personal Liberty / lifestyle

[Horus]

Amish don't vaccinate so of course they were drawn to Trump

[Middle-aged Europe]

Amish sure love a pussygrabber when they see him.

[iceman]

Why is Ontario county, NY still not atlas red on the map?

[Crumpets]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334322124564164612

Kansas did drop another 39,000 votes at certification with a slight Biden advantage so the margin was slightly narrower and the swing greater than current indicated on atlas

Funny how they can find that many ballots this late in the game with a Biden advantage, but team Trump doesn't care at all about using it to bolster claims of fraud solely because it's in a state he won.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1334464380054999042

[n1240]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1334464380054999042

Paywall. What (beyond the headline) is the tl;dr?

[pbrower2a]

My brother tells me that he went past a Trump rally on his way to the grocery store in a small town in Michigan. He is typically a conservative Republican, but he now shares my observation that Trump supporters don't defer to reality. (He voted libertarian in 2016 and for Biden in 2020; he didn't trust Trump)..

They also don't wear masks.

Trump has a cult that will do anything for him except perhaps murder.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1334464380054999042

Paywall. What (beyond the headline) is the tl;dr?

The tipping point states, all of which have Republican legislatures and two of which have Republican governors, have certified their results. So there's no chance of any shenanigans on that end.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

My brother tells me that he went past a Trump rally on his way to the grocery store in a small town in Michigan. He is typically a conservative Republican, but he now shares my observation that Trump supporters don't defer to reality. (He voted libertarian in 2016 and for Biden in 2020; he didn't trust Trump)..

They also don't wear masks.

Trump has a cult that will do anything for him except perhaps murder.

Oh, they'll cheerfully murder if they think they can get away with it (and they're very bad at understanding non-immediate consequences). The line they'll have trouble crossing is immediate personal inconvenience or discomfort.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1334464380054999042

Paywall. What (beyond the headline) is the tl;dr?

The tipping point states, all of which have Republican legislatures and two of which have Republican governors, have certified their results. So there's no chance of any shenanigans on that end.

Well, we already knew that. The gubernatorial sign-offs/National Archives depositions are harder to reverse than the canvassing boards'/SoSes' determinations?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

agreed

[FrancoAgo]

Please, some can explain the trends?
As i understand, a state or a county or a city trend,at example for R if in this election they did better of the US as a whole, so this time the D get a +2.3 shift, all the place get a lesser shift in favour of D or a shift in favour of R, trend R

imho would be right a different calculus
in the 2016 the D get 48.18% and R 46.09%, others get 5.73%
this year, atm, the D get 51.28% and R 46.89%, others get 1.83%
so the D get a +3.1 and the R a +0.8
proportionally to their share of votes the D get +6.43%, and the R a +1.74%
so for trend favourably to R a place need to get more of +1.74%, compared to their % of 2016

[StateBoiler]

We're now a month since the election and California and New York are still counting. Well done guys.

[Mike88]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

Cannot read the article due to the regulation protection thing, but it seems that Trump will win the county by just 3,000 votes or so, right?

From Westchester, is there any update?

[n1240]

Weirdly enough NY certified even though a number of counties haven't actually certified their results yet

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

[brucejoel99]

Weirdly enough NY certified even though a number of counties haven't actually certified their results yet

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

PA did the same thing too, IIRC.

[n1240]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

Cannot read the article due to the regulation protection thing, but it seems that Trump will win the county by just 3,000 votes or so, right?

From Westchester, is there any update?

NY State has now posted "certified" results (Westchester and Suffolk possibly not complete).

Total absentee vote in Westchester:

Biden 91408 (82.8%)
Trump 18700 (16.9%)

Suffolk:

Biden 108537 (71.6%)
Trump 42204 (27.8%)

Statewide total

Biden 5230985 (60.8%)
Trump 3244798 (37.8%)
Total 8594826