2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[sguberman]

I feel like the protests/riots must have helped Trump in cities as he seems to have improved in quite a few of them some by decently sized swings. Though ironically not in Minneapolis.

[sguberman]

I feel like the protests/riots must have helped Trump in cities as he seems to have improved in quite a few of them some by decently sized swings. Though ironically not in Minneapolis.

I also wonder if democratic voters in New York City fled due to Covid to their vacation houses and that may have been part of it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

[Non Swing Voter]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333907489780273153

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I feel like the protests/riots must have helped Trump in cities as he seems to have improved in quite a few of them some by decently sized swings. Though ironically not in Minneapolis.

The NYC and SF Bay Area swings would’ve still occurred to some extent without the protests. I think the COVID-induced exodus of upscale D-leaning voters from big cities, the Biden campaign’s lack of in-person campaigning, and widespread disinformation on social media were more important. Although the protests and lack of canvassing definitely made fake news narratives about Biden more beievable.

[forsythvoter]

I feel like the protests/riots must have helped Trump in cities as he seems to have improved in quite a few of them some by decently sized swings. Though ironically not in Minneapolis.

I'm kind of astonished Staten Island swung Dem given the R swings elsewhere in the city. I would have thought this borough would be most susceptible to swinging R due to the rioting given the high police officer presence there. There's also a high Hispanic population on the north shore that I would think swung R as well.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333912589538127881

[Roll Roons]

I feel like the protests/riots must have helped Trump in cities as he seems to have improved in quite a few of them some by decently sized swings. Though ironically not in Minneapolis.

The NYC and SF Bay Area swings would’ve still occurred to some extent without the protests. I think the COVID-induced exodus of upscale D-leaning voters from big cities, the Biden campaign’s lack of in-person campaigning, and widespread disinformation on social media were more important. Although the protests and lack of canvassing definitely made fake news narratives about Biden more beievable.

Now that I think about it, maybe that's a big part of the reason why Somerset/Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex in New Jersey and Pike/Monroe in Pennsylvania had big Democratic swings. An exodus of people from NYC.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

Definately, but I'm a mean person so I won't

[Battista Minola 1616]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

Ultra-light blue is not horrid, but you'd do everyone a favour if you could set blank states at a darker shade of grey.

Definately, but I'm a mean person so I won't

The only mean thing you do is keeping spelling "definately" instead of "definitely".

(sorry for the IndyRep moment; it triggers me as much as it triggers him)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

[KaiserDave]

NY with a major vote dump bringing Biden above 60% statewide. Still more to go though.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

Seems that Alabama has now trended Republican, while North Carolina is at 0.01% Democratic then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333912589538127881

How embarrassing for the outgoing President!

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

Seems that Alabama has now trended Republican, while North Carolina is at 0.01% Democratic then.

There's enough out for Biden to get to 4.5% or so, so I expect the NC trend to flip and probably ND as well, but it should stop there.

[Nyvin]

Kinda crazy to think that in 2024 there will be voters who literally never experienced a Republican Candidate winning the popular vote in their whole lifetime.

[The Free North]

With NYC finishing up, looks like Trump swung the Bronx like 15% and did better than any Rep since Bush in 2004 (when he won the PV).

The hispanic thing is real folks. Doesnt matter right now since it means BX goes from like 7% rep to 15%, but maybe it will one day.

[Skill and Chance]

Kinda crazy to think that in 2024 there will be voters who literally never experienced a Republican Candidate winning the popular vote in their whole lifetime.

If the dramatic improvement with Hispanic voters continues it's likely to happen in the next Republican win though.  CA/TX*/FL/NYC have a ton of population. 

*Doesn't necessarily give Republicans a big margin there again, but keeps it from ever going Colorado/Virginia on them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With NYC finishing up, looks like Trump swung the Bronx like 15% and did better than any Rep since Bush in 2004 (when he won the PV).

The hispanic thing is real folks. Doesnt matter right now since it means BX goes from like 7% rep to 15%, but maybe it will one day.

Biggest GOP swings in Hispanic and Asian areas. Fits with everything else we've seen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Reject modernity

Embrace tradition

[South Dakota Democrat]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

NYC should have its own governor...and they can take ours.

[lfromnj]

Also the UES is WASP rich people but the UWS is more Jewish IIRC so there may have been a slight Jewish swing as AD 67 did swing a bit R.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

With NYC finishing up, looks like Trump swung the Bronx like 15% and did better than any Rep since Bush in 2004 (when he won the PV).

The hispanic thing is real folks. Doesnt matter right now since it means BX goes from like 7% rep to 15%, but maybe it will one day.

Race/ethnicity map from ~2010 for comparison. The biggest R swings in Brooklyn and Queens seem to be in heavily Eastern European [Orthodox Jewish?] areas, followed by (non-Puerto Rican, non-Dominican?) Latino areas, then the Chinese and South Asian areas.