2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Skill and Chance]

Been comparing the last NYT polls in AZ, PA, WI & FL to the AP exit poll to see where the differences lie, biggest difference appears to be among older voters, pollsters seem to have been reaching a disproportionately democratic group of 65+ voters across multiple states.

NYT WI poll: 65+: Biden +15
AP WI Exit poll: 65+: Trump +7

NYT PA Poll: 65+: Biden+12
AP PA Exit Poll: 65+: Trump+6

NYT FL Poll: 65+: +2 Biden
AP FL Exit Poll: 65+: +11 Trump

NYT AZ Poll: 65+: +1 Trump
AP AZ Exit Poll: 65+: +7 Trump



Here are the final NYT margins vs the results

WI: Biden +11 : Biden +0.6
PA: Biden +6   : Biden +1.2
FL: Biden +3   : Trump +3.4
AZ: Biden +6  : Biden +0.3

Average error: 6.8% treating each state independently. 

Wonder if the 65+ polls were conspicuously different (much Trumpier) in Georgia?  That is the one swing state where polls were generally accurate.

[Skill and Chance]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

Based on my calculations from what we know about the absentee ballots, I have three boroughs swinging to Trump the exceptions being... Manhattan and Staten Island. Bronx will have the biggest swing, Manhattan is going to be very close to 2016 numbers could go either way. I have Staten Island slightly swinging towards Biden. Should be interesting to see the final numbers, and the precinct map!

It seems like Biden's PV ceiling is 4.5%ish and the floor is around 4.25%ish if NYC swings very R?
 
So it's basically 2012 in the PV... with the social and economic conditions we had in 2020, honestly this is a pretty grim picture for Dems in the medium/long run.     

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

Based on my calculations from what we know about the absentee ballots, I have three boroughs swinging to Trump the exceptions being... Manhattan and Staten Island. Bronx will have the biggest swing, Manhattan is going to be very close to 2016 numbers could go either way. I have Staten Island slightly swinging towards Biden. Should be interesting to see the final numbers, and the precinct map!

It seems like Biden's PV ceiling is 4.5%ish and the floor is around 4.25%ish if NYC swings very R?
 
So it's basically 2012 in the PV... with the social and economic conditions we had in 2020, honestly this is a pretty grim picture for Dems in the medium/long run.     

How is this "grim" for Democrats?

[Skill and Chance]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

Based on my calculations from what we know about the absentee ballots, I have three boroughs swinging to Trump the exceptions being... Manhattan and Staten Island. Bronx will have the biggest swing, Manhattan is going to be very close to 2016 numbers could go either way. I have Staten Island slightly swinging towards Biden. Should be interesting to see the final numbers, and the precinct map!

It seems like Biden's PV ceiling is 4.5%ish and the floor is around 4.25%ish if NYC swings very R?
 
So it's basically 2012 in the PV... with the social and economic conditions we had in 2020, honestly this is a pretty grim picture for Dems in the medium/long run.     

How is this "grim" for Democrats?

Given what the country is going through, this probably should have been a lot more like 2008 or 1980 than it was?  It seems like they missed their best chance in several cycles to build a large governing majority, plus the EC bias against them is getting into crazy territory. 

It becomes brighter if Dems flip both the GA seats in the runoffs, but it still seems underwhelming. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's hard to compare the economic conditions to any other year, honestly. That's something Nate Silver got right in his model and that everybody else got wrong: based on which indicator you pick and what time span you consider, this year could look anywhere from 1932 to 1996.

I definitely thought that other factors were going to sink the GOP (and in a just world, they would have), but I wouldn't draw too many conclusions with regard to the economy specifically.

[Tender Branson]

Rhode Island will certify results today (11.30am):

https://elections.ri.gov/publications/Meetings/Agenda%2011-30-20.pdf

[Gass3268]

So all the Trump->Biden states should have their electors appointed by the end of the Eastern Time workday tomorrow?

Wisconsin doesn’t certify until Tuesday.

[FrancoAgo]

So all the Trump->Biden states should have their electors appointed by the end of the Eastern Time workday tomorrow?

Wisconsin doesn’t certify until Tuesday.

look to #277

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

As Geoffrey Rush in Pirates of the Caribbean might say, it seems like in a lot of these states the certification deadline is more of a guideline than an actual rule. Some states (like Pennsylvania) have certified a little late, some (like Nevada and apparently now also Wisconsin) have certified a little early, and it doesn't seem like there's much sturm und drang about this either way. The missed deadlines don't even seem to be factoring into Rudy et al.'s legal claims/conspiracy theories.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Rhode Island will certify results today (11.30am):

https://elections.ri.gov/publications/Meetings/Agenda%2011-30-20.pdf

OH FINALLY. I have some bets to honour:

If Biden does not break 60% in Rhode Island, I change my avatar to R-RI and my display name to "I Was So Wrong" for a week.

[Tender Branson]

Rhode Island will certify results today (11.30am):

https://elections.ri.gov/publications/Meetings/Agenda%2011-30-20.pdf

OH FINALLY. I have some bets to honour:

If Biden does not break 60% in Rhode Island, I change my avatar to R-RI and my display name to "I Was So Wrong" for a week.

He's at 59.4% - you can already change your avatar and name ...

[Roll Roons]

What time are the NYC results dropping?

[Mike88]

What time are the NYC results dropping?

They will only certify them tomorrow. Don't know if they will be published today. Unlikely as this, of course, New York.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Rhode Island will certify results today (11.30am):

https://elections.ri.gov/publications/Meetings/Agenda%2011-30-20.pdf

OH FINALLY. I have some bets to honour:

If Biden does not break 60% in Rhode Island, I change my avatar to R-RI and my display name to "I Was So Wrong" for a week.

He's at 59.4% - you can already change your avatar and name ...

Well yeah, but I prefer to wait for the result to be official. At least he won by more than a 20% margin.

[wbrocks67]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

[Brittain33]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

[Storebought]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

[Kamala's side hoe]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

Cuban-Americans in NJ aren't nearly as concerned about socialism as the Cubans in Florida. In fact, New Jersey Cubans heavily lean towards the Democrats.

Also, I'll wait until the absentee results come in for the Bronx. Also, most Dominicans in the Bronx definitely don't care about "socialism" lol.

[lfromnj]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

Cuban-Americans in NJ aren't nearly as concerned about socialism as the Cubans in Florida. In fact, New Jersey Cubans heavily lean towards the Democrats.

Also, I'll wait until the absentee results come in for the Bronx. Also, most Dominicans in the Bronx definitely don't care about "socialism" lol.

That's what he is saying. He is then asking why did these groups still swing R?

[wbrocks67]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

Cuban-Americans in NJ aren't nearly as concerned about socialism as the Cubans in Florida. In fact, New Jersey Cubans heavily lean towards the Democrats.

Also, I'll wait until the absentee results come in for the Bronx. Also, most Dominicans in the Bronx definitely don't care about "socialism" lol.

That's what he is saying. He is then asking why did these groups still swing R?

Incumbency and targeted misinformation are the only two things that make sense imo. No other reason for them to vote Trump when they voted Dem in 2016/18

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

That's what he is saying. He is then asking why did these groups still swing R?

I wrote about this in another thread:

I think that there is some effect because of social media. A ton of right-wing, pro-Trump garbage in Spanish was spread on social media much more than in 2016. Also, the Trump campaign's micro-targeting of certain Latinos like Cubans and Venezuelans with ads about socialism was much more abundant than in 2016.

Another reason is that Trump hardly talked about immigration on the campaign trail this year. In 2016, Trump was all about "Build the wall", "Deport illegals!", "Mexicans are rapists!". In 2020, there was no such rhetoric on the campaign trail from Trump (even though, the Trump administration's immigration policies have been very strict and harsh).

[Tender Branson]

Rhode Island results are official:

https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2020/general_election/

https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/30/elections-board-certifies-bidens-ri-win-other-race-results/6462558002/

[Tender Branson]

Montana results are now official:

https://sosmt.gov/

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1333476525400879104