2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[jdk]

Biden did 9 points better in Erie County, NY than Hillary did.

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1332746829893660673?s=20

I wonder if Trump's comments at that rally in Erie did anything to move any votes there

[SLA8]

I don't necessarily agree with the "Dems" are becoming the party of the rich rhetoric. I think it's more so that Trumpian populism is very popular among lower-income voters, so the contrast with Trump is automatically going to register better with higher income voters.

Once Trump was out of the equation (like the 2018 midterm suggests) the under 50K income electorate reverted back to Dems. I think it all depends on how the Republican party emerges from this election. If they keep harping on anti-globalism and protectionism, they might morph into a less fiscally conservative party with a more conservative social platform, which will be attractive to many lower-income voters. Right now, the Republican party's platform and policies are still very much pro-business, anti-regulation, anti-deficit and pro-trade. I do anticipate that they will be vocal against Biden's more economically progressive policies. I don't know how well that will play with some lower-income voters.

[Badger]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

A Dem assemblywoman in a seat drawn to be safe Dem went down in defeat in 2018, so I guess the result in the counties bordering Quebec this time around isn't entirely shocking.

Thank you for updating Dutchess County. Hopefully Dave's map will do so soon shortly.

So does it look like by Biden will carry the state outside of New York City? How about north of the city which would exclude Trump's margin out of Long Island?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

[Hammy]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

31/51:

184 Trump
121 Biden

Further evidence that Biden is home and dry.

Even if the last two Trump-Biden swing states (AZ and WI), plus NE-02 ended up mired in some judicial BS, there are enough Safe-D states to take Biden to 284 votes.

I don't think Giuliani is about to pull off some great surprise/coup, but it's nice to be one step closer to Trump's removal from office.

Is New York going to finish counting in time to certify, that's the real question here.

[forza nocta]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

If Biden had won the NPV by 7%, he still would have lost FL and only picked up NC. He would have won 321 EVs.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't necessarily agree with the "Dems" are becoming the party of the rich rhetoric. I think it's more so that Trumpian populism is very popular among lower-income voters, so the contrast with Trump is automatically going to register better with higher income voters.

Once Trump was out of the equation (like the 2018 midterm suggests) the under 50K income electorate reverted back to Dems. I think it all depends on how the Republican party emerges from this election. If they keep harping on anti-globalism and protectionism, they might morph into a less fiscally conservative party with a more conservative social platform, which will be attractive to many lower-income voters. Right now, the Republican party's platform and policies are still very much pro-business, anti-regulation, anti-deficit and pro-trade. I do anticipate that they will be vocal against Biden's more economically progressive policies. I don't know how well that will play with some lower-income voters.

I think it has more to do with the "Trumpy" voters staying home.

[n1240]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

This doesn't include provisionals, after considering the absentees that will be rejected the final amount of votes added will be around 750k. Currenty think pop vote margin ends up in 4.45-4.5% range, with around 1.2-1.3 mil votes left to tally nationwide.

[Gass3268]

New York City is done counting, just waiting for them to certify:

https://twitter.com/benj_rosenblatt/status/1332829184008269826?s=21

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

Sadly, Ohio arguably isn't anymore.

After 2 consecutive elections, it is clear the OH, IA and TX trends are no longer flukes. OH was R+12 this year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

[Mike88]

New York City is done counting, just waiting for them to certify:

https://twitter.com/benj_rosenblatt/status/1332829184008269826?s=21

Because this is NY, they maybe just release the numbers on December 7th, the certification day. But let's hope not or someone like Dave Wasserman gets the results.

[Sbane]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

31/51:

184 Trump
121 Biden

Further evidence that Biden is home and dry.

Even if the last two Trump-Biden swing states (AZ and WI), plus NE-02 ended up mired in some judicial BS, there are enough Safe-D states to take Biden to 284 votes.

I don't think Giuliani is about to pull off some great surprise/coup, but it's nice to be one step closer to Trump's removal from office.

Is New York going to finish counting in time to certify, that's the real question here.

They are basically done counting. The certified results from the counties/NYC should be in next week.

[Storebought]

How many more votes are there left in NY? The current margin of 7.5 million is scandalous for a state that is awarded 29 EV. Even if the current margin turns out to be a million more, that's still over two million fewer than FL.

Illinois is just as terrible -- 5.9 million votes cast, one million votes lower than PA, despite both states having 20 EVs. Or Texas having 11ish million votes, a little more than FL, but having 38 EVs.

[Bomster]

How many more votes are there left in NY? The current margin of 7.5 million is scandalous for a state that is awarded 29 EV. Even if the current margin turns out to be a million more, that's still over two million fewer than FL.

Illinois is just as terrible -- 5.9 million votes cast, one million votes lower than PA, despite both states having 20 EVs. Or Texas having 11ish million votes, a little more than FL, but having 38 EVs.

Turnout is a hell of a drug.

[AGA]

How many more votes are there left in NY? The current margin of 7.5 million is scandalous for a state that is awarded 29 EV. Even if the current margin turns out to be a million more, that's still over two million fewer than FL.

Illinois is just as terrible -- 5.9 million votes cast, one million votes lower than PA, despite both states having 20 EVs. Or Texas having 11ish million votes, a little more than FL, but having 38 EVs.

New York always has low turnout.

[Annatar]

Been comparing the last NYT polls in AZ, PA, WI & FL to the AP exit poll to see where the differences lie, biggest difference appears to be among older voters, pollsters seem to have been reaching a disproportionately democratic group of 65+ voters across multiple states.

NYT WI poll: 65+: Biden +15
AP WI Exit poll: 65+: Trump +7

NYT PA Poll: 65+: Biden+12
AP PA Exit Poll: 65+: Trump+6

NYT FL Poll: 65+: +2 Biden
AP FL Exit Poll: 65+: +11 Trump

NYT AZ Poll: 65+: +1 Trump
AP AZ Exit Poll: 65+: +7 Trump



Here are the final NYT margins vs the results

WI: Biden +11 : Biden +0.6
PA: Biden +6   : Biden +1.2
FL: Biden +3   : Trump +3.4
AZ: Biden +6  : Biden +0.3

Average error: 6.8% treating each state independently. 

[Helsinkian]

The Pennsylvania case was thrown out:

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1332830248858234883

[bandg]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

Based on my calculations from what we know about the absentee ballots, I have three boroughs swinging to Trump the exceptions being... Manhattan and Staten Island. Bronx will have the biggest swing, Manhattan is going to be very close to 2016 numbers could go either way. I have Staten Island slightly swinging towards Biden. Should be interesting to see the final numbers, and the precinct map!

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1333088877343608832?s=21

[jimrtex]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

[Tender Branson]

The WI recount paid for by Trump in Milwaukee and Dane has ended.

Biden wins again:

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin finished a recount of its presidential results on Sunday, confirming Democrat Joe Biden’s victory over President Donald Trump in the key battleground state. Trump vowed to challenge the outcome in court even before the recount concluded.

Dane County was the second and last county to finish its recount, reporting a 45-vote gain for Trump. Milwaukee County, the state’s other big and overwhelmingly liberal county targeted in a recount that Trump paid for, reported its results Friday, a 132-vote gain for Biden.

Taken together, the two counties barely budged Biden’s winning margin of about 20,600 votes, giving the winner a net gain of 87 votes.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-madison-wisconsin-7aef88488e4a801545a13cf4319591b0

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Jason Ravnsborg(R)

lmao. Only the best people!

(tbf I'm sure there plenty of mega-HPs on Democratic slates too, just lower-profile ones.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Double your pleasure
Double your fun
Biden flips dairyland
Two times, not one!