2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1330975156014112768

Just proves it was never about the law, fraud, or any legitimate actions relating to the election. It was all about how Donald Trump looks. Really can't wait for this to be over.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

[Alben Barkley]

Well between this and the COVID vaccine news, I’m feeling hopeful that things will go “back to normal,” more or less, within a year or so.

As Churchill said: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

[Benjamin Frank]

Michigan certified results are here:
https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Crazy that Biden has more raw votes in Utah than Trump got in 2016. The turnout+swing is absolutely insane.

[Skill and Chance]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

On average, how much have the completed counties in NY swung toward Biden?  This has important PV implications. 

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

On average, how much have the completed counties in NY swung toward Biden?  This has important PV implications. 

4.17% with 11.2% increase in vote

[Mike88]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

With those numbers from Essex, Warren and Clinton, Biden is now less than 90,000 votes away from the 80 million mark. If NYC or Suffolk dumped their results, Biden would surpass easily that mark.

[Skill and Chance]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

On average, how much have the completed counties in NY swung toward Biden?  This has important PV implications. 

4.17% with 11.2% increase in vote

That's pretty big vs. national, though I do expect parts of NYC to still swing right after everything is counted so it will be partially cancelled out.

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

With those numbers from Essex, Warren and Clinton, Biden is now less than 90,000 votes away from the 80 million mark. If NYC or Suffolk dumped their results, Biden would surpass easily that mark.

44k away with my personal tally for NY, will probably post it in a few hours - waiting on potential update in Nassau since they usually update later in the evening although they could be done counting.

[Mike88]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

With those numbers from Essex, Warren and Clinton, Biden is now less than 90,000 votes away from the 80 million mark. If NYC or Suffolk dumped their results, Biden would surpass easily that mark.

44k away with my personal tally for NY, will probably post it in a few hours - waiting on potential update in Nassau since they usually update later in the evening although they could be done counting.

Ah, right. I'm following your more recent data and the Politico results page, which is the most updated, just like AP. I thought Nassau had finished counting and in the Long Island area, the last big chunk left was in Suffolk.

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

With those numbers from Essex, Warren and Clinton, Biden is now less than 90,000 votes away from the 80 million mark. If NYC or Suffolk dumped their results, Biden would surpass easily that mark.

44k away with my personal tally for NY, will probably post it in a few hours - waiting on potential update in Nassau since they usually update later in the evening although they could be done counting.

Ah, right. I'm following your more recent data and the Politico results page, which is the most updated, just like AP. I though Nassau had finished counting and in the Long Island area, the last big chunk left was in Suffolk.

Nassau might have some provisionals to count but if they have any ballots left it's probably in the range of 5k-10k. Definitely waiting on Suffolk or maybe Erie but neither post nightly updates like Nassau did.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump has always surrounded himself with nut-jobs and weirdos, and he only realizes it now? Well, how he feels about his legal team is how the world and >51% of the country feels about him.

[n1240]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

[Brittain33]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

St. Lawrence County could be absence of students.

[Mike88]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

With those numbers from Essex, Warren and Clinton, Biden is now less than 90,000 votes away from the 80 million mark. If NYC or Suffolk dumped their results, Biden would surpass easily that mark.

44k away with my personal tally for NY, will probably post it in a few hours - waiting on potential update in Nassau since they usually update later in the evening although they could be done counting.

Ah, right. I'm following your more recent data and the Politico results page, which is the most updated, just like AP. I though Nassau had finished counting and in the Long Island area, the last big chunk left was in Suffolk.

Nassau might have some provisionals to count but if they have any ballots left it's probably in the range of 5k-10k. Definitely waiting on Suffolk or maybe Erie but neither post nightly updates like Nassau did.

Right, right. Nonetheless, thank you so much for your updates on New York.

[n1240]

Essex County NY is now a Obama-Trump-Biden county, with Biden winning it by 5%. Biden narrowly fails to flip neighboring Warren County, with Trump winning it by 57 votes (.16%).

You told me that Clinton County, NY will be won by Biden, right? When will we get an update from there?

Turns out they actually have results, it was just not in the link I was usually checking. Biden wins 51.7-46.5, 5.2% margin, just a bit lower than my expectation of 6%.

Still curious as to why St. Lawrence and Lewis counties swung towards Trump. Clinton, Essex, Hamilton, Jefferson, Saratoga (split), and Warren are all within the same district (NY-21) and all swung at least 3.3 points Dem. The only other county in the state outside of NYC that was swung Dem is Rockland, which I think could be explained by a hard swing among Orthodox Jewish communities towards Trump, but don't really have a clue about St. Lawrence or Lewis.

St. Lawrence County could be absence of students.

If this were the case I think you'd see a smaller increase in votes since 2016, but St. Lawrence is the 2nd highest increase in votes among all counties in the state with 14.7% more votes among completed counties thus far (Warren #1 with 15.1%, Lewis #3 with 14.5%).

[Bomster]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

[Bootes Void]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

No Biden will win Wisconsin buts it's a bit weird that a larger than expected share of votes are not being considered.

[Bomster]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

No Biden will win Wisconsin buts it's a bit weird that a larger than expected share of votes are not being considered.

Does it give credence to those bonkers conspiracy theories?

[Hammy]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

Trump only nets about 300-400 votes tops if you extrapolate it out.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Side note: Trump is very lucky he's never been a Michigan resident, because Nessel would TOTALLY indict him for tax fraud or any other shady thing he did once he's a private citizen. Has Trump ever owned any properties in Michigan? If so I bet she'll be probing those finances anyway...

LOL, you think the NY AG is any less eager?  and you get the added benefit of a NY jury pool instead of a MI jury pool.  Trump's histrionics post election are about his looming jail prospects.

If the Trump Org was in FL instead, the AG would potentially be some corrupt swamp creature like Pam Bondi. Bondi dropped a investigation into the Trump Org in the 2000's after she got a big campaign donation from Trump. DeSantis would probably pardon Trump for any FL charge as well.

[Bootes Void]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Anything to worry about?

No Biden will win Wisconsin buts it's a bit weird that a larger than expected share of votes are not being considered.

Does it give credence to those bonkers conspiracy theories?

No the margin is over 20k, this is very minor. Also recounts change the margin by hundreds of votes at most not much else