2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[FrancoAgo]

The recount should end tomorrow.

atm 10 counties have not ended the first count

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/access-to-races

[GeorgiaModerate]

Like did they find anything in the recount?

Floyd County found a problem with one scanner that caused 2600 votes not to be reported on election day.  These netted Trump about 800 votes.  Other counties have reported minimal or no discrepancies.

[Frenchrepublican]

Any idea when the state of NY will update its votes counting process ?

[Skill and Chance]

Like did they find anything in the recount?

Floyd County found a problem with one scanner that caused 2600 votes not to be reported on election day.  These netted Trump about 800 votes.  Other counties have reported minimal or no discrepancies.

That is actually a big error by recount standards!  An error of that size could have flipped Florida in 2000. Of course, 14K votes is also a big margin by recount standards and should be in no danger of being overturned.  Would still take 17 more pro-Trump errors of that size to flip the state.

[n1240]

Any idea when the state of NY will update its votes counting process ?

Counties release results at their own pace, most of them won't post full official results with complete absentee/provisional count until they're done counting (most should be done before Thanksgiving).

edit: might've misinterpreted the question, if you're asking when they won't stop having an obscure absentee counting protocol, I have no clue, think it's been like this for a long time and it needs to change.

[Skill and Chance]

Any idea when the state of NY will update its votes counting process ?

Counties release results at their own pace, most of them won't post full official results with complete absentee/provisional count until they're done counting (most should be done before Thanksgiving).

edit: might've misinterpreted the question, if you're asking when they won't stop having an obscure absentee counting protocol, I have no clue, think it's been like this for a long time and it needs to change.

Can you imagine a world where NY is the largest swing state and never knowing who won the EC until Thanksgiving?

[Frenchrepublican]

Any idea when the state of NY will update its votes counting process ?

Counties release results at their own pace, most of them won't post full official results with complete absentee/provisional count until they're done counting (most should be done before Thanksgiving).

edit: might've misinterpreted the question, if you're asking when they won't stop having an obscure absentee counting protocol, I have no clue, think it's been like this for a long time and it needs to change.

Okay, thank you, that was my question.

But why can't they simply update their unofficial results, like it is the case in NJ ?

[n1240]

In today's episode of very rational PredictIt trading, Trump to win the electoral college by 280+ electoral votes is surging to an all-time high of 11 cents.

[wbrocks67]

Biden hits 50% in the AP total for PA. You love to see it.

Joe Biden: 3,431,728 (50%)
Donald Trump: 3,359,349 (48.9%)
Jo Jorgensen: 78,912 (1.1%)

Lead: +72,379

[FrancoAgo]

The recount should end tomorrow.

atm 10 counties have not ended the first count

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/access-to-races

and now the counties that have not ended the first count are up to 11

they have some trouble of misunderstand

[Annatar]

Looks like Trump may have marginally increased his share of the black vote in LA, from 7% to 10% in 70% plus black precincts. Across multiple states the evidence appears to point to a 2 - 4% rise in Trump's black vote share vs 2016, instead of 8% in 2016, Trump probably got 11% of the black vote this year.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1328680296586354688

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In today's episode of very rational PredictIt trading, Trump to win the electoral college by 280+ electoral votes is surging to an all-time high of 11 cents.

I love how NC is valued at 99 for Trump, yet Michigan is only at 89 for Biden, despite the fact his lead in the state is nearly twice the size as Trump's in NC.

[Tender Branson]

Any idea when the state of NY will update its votes counting process ?

Counties release results at their own pace, most of them won't post full official results with complete absentee/provisional count until they're done counting (most should be done before Thanksgiving).

edit: might've misinterpreted the question, if you're asking when they won't stop having an obscure absentee counting protocol, I have no clue, think it's been like this for a long time and it needs to change.

Okay, thank you, that was my question.

But why can't they simply update their unofficial results, like it is the case in NJ ?

NY election reporting is stuck in the 19th century.

They only release all results statewide when they certify, which is in early to mid-December, slightly before the EC meets.

And in NY, you can't even blame the Republicans for all that incompetence. It's all the Democrats fault.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes in PA.

Joe Biden 3,434,458
Donald Trump 3,361,131

Biden lead: +73,327

The PA DOS website has stopped updating, but based on their initial "mail ballots returned" and the PA website's count of mail ballots counted, it appears there's still a bit out... Allegheny looks to still have ~7K mail-ins and 3/4K provisionals. Philly still has at least 7-8K provisionals if not more (never got an official count other than "at least" 18K), with about ~4K mail-ins still to count.

Put it this way: the state said they had ~94K provisionals. About 75K have been counted, so nearly 20K left of those out in the state. Which makes me think there's more than 7-8k left in Philly. Though some places like Lehigh have still not counted any.

[Mike88]

Looks like there's almost 2 million absentee ballots in NYS:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328713028783763457

[Bootes Void]

Looks like there's almost 2 million absentee ballots in NYS:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328713028783763457

Just wow! What an incompetent elections board

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks like there's almost 2 million absentee ballots in NYS:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328713028783763457

Just wow! What an incompetent elections board

Wait, these are still not counted?

[forza nocta]

Looks like there's almost 2 million absentee ballots in NYS:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328713028783763457

Just wow! What an incompetent elections board

Wait, these are still not counted?

According to the NYT, only 200k of these 1.9m+ absentees have been counted. So for the most part, nope.

[Mike88]

Looks like there's almost 2 million absentee ballots in NYS:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328713028783763457

Just wow! What an incompetent elections board

Wait, these are still not counted?

According to the NYT, only 200k of these 1.9m+ absentees have been counted. So for the most part, nope.

And according to the same source, some counties haven't update the state board of elections of the total absentee ballots they received:

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1328721522203250688

[Bootes Void]

Will Biden break LBJ 1964 NY vote total? Trump already did in WV.

[wbrocks67]

NY is a hot mess. Will be interesting to see how much NY, when it's done counting in 2025, raises Biden's margins. The absentees counted so far have gone overwhelmingly to him, and upstate NY looks to be continuing the Northeast leftward trend.

[Sir Mohamed]

NY is a hot mess. Will be interesting to see how much NY, when it's done counting in 2025, raises Biden's margins. The absentees counted so far have gone overwhelmingly to him, and upstate NY looks to be continuing the Northeast leftward trend.

Cuomo should resign. The dude is a disaster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More details on the Floyd County issue in the Georgia recount:

“There’s no issues with any of the equipment; I think they just didn’t scan these ballots,” Gabriel Sterling with the secretary of state’s office said. “ So the secretary, since this is such an amazing blunder and they had issues in August, would like to see that elections director step down from his position — because this was too important of an issue to allow to happen this way.”

According to the Rome News-Tribune, 1,643 votes were for President Donald Trump and 865 were for Democrat Joe Biden in the heavily Republican northwest Georgia county. That trims the margin that Biden is currently leading by about 800 votes, but nowhere near enough to affect the outcome.

“That county is the only county we've seen an issue like this so far,” Sterling said. “And again, it's unfortunate, but it's not an equipment issue. It's a person not executing their job properly.”

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/11/17/battleground-blog-2500-more-votes-discovered-in-floyd-county-during-audit

[Tender Branson]

Pretty bizarre that 2.600 ballots would go unnoticed, but whatever.

At least they are firing the officials in charge in this county now.

[Wiz in Wis]

More details on the Floyd County issue in the Georgia recount:

“There’s no issues with any of the equipment; I think they just didn’t scan these ballots,” Gabriel Sterling with the secretary of state’s office said. “ So the secretary, since this is such an amazing blunder and they had issues in August, would like to see that elections director step down from his position — because this was too important of an issue to allow to happen this way.”

According to the Rome News-Tribune, 1,643 votes were for President Donald Trump and 865 were for Democrat Joe Biden in the heavily Republican northwest Georgia county. That trims the margin that Biden is currently leading by about 800 votes, but nowhere near enough to affect the outcome.

“That county is the only county we've seen an issue like this so far,” Sterling said. “And again, it's unfortunate, but it's not an equipment issue. It's a person not executing their job properly.”

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/11/17/battleground-blog-2500-more-votes-discovered-in-floyd-county-during-audit

Real "Waukesha County 2011" vibes here.