2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

Pretty sure NC is down to roughly 18k votes left to count, would've assumed networks would've called it today. I think Trump has actually won a majority of ballots counted since election day (something like 20000-19000), has won the last 17k added today 10k-7k

It hasn't tightened much at all. Would be so, so ironic if the late-arriving-but-postmarked-by-Election-Day ballots are good for Trump in NC and PA!

I think Biden is still winning the late mail in NC but by a significantly smaller margin, not surprising given that the partisan affiliation of ballots received since election day is something like 30/28/42 D/R/I. Biden only won late mail in Wake by 28% (56% before) and 50% in Orange (79% before). Trump is just doing well on provisional ballots which is helping him bolster his lead slightly.

[Mike88]

ABC and CBS also projected Georgia for Biden and NC for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

CNN has called both GA and NC--NC for Trump and GA for Joe Biden. Look at this beautiful map.

[riceowl]

CNN has called GA

[Bootes Void]

Will Biden surpass LBJ 1964 total in NY?

[Mike88]

For now, AP, FOX and NYT haven't called neither Georgia or NC.

NYT has just called it.

[Alben Barkley]

While much of the country was panicking on the morning of November 4th, because I had stayed up all night doing the math (including with some of you in this very thread), I was pretty damn confident of the 306 map already and that confidence has not wavered since. Now it's official. Feels good, man.

[forza nocta]

Question: How do all the news networks coordinate and basically call states at the exact same time? Lol it happened today, yesterday with Arizona and last Saturday with Pennsylvania.

[Brittain33]

Landslide. Blowout. Historic.

[Alben Barkley]

Question: How do all the news networks coordinate and basically call states at the exact same time? Lol it happened today, yesterday with Arizona and last Saturday with Pennsylvania.

I don't know if they coordinate or if someone just calls it then all the other networks take that as the go-ahead to do it.

But if they do coordinate, wouldn't be hard exactly for them to communicate with each other!

[Illiniwek]

CNN has called both GA and NC--NC for Trump and GA for Joe Biden. Look at this beautiful map.

How fantastic are the people of Georgia!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Proud of you, Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now that Trump has been mathematically eliminated in Arizona and the state has been called by the other networks, this is my final update on the remaining ballots. 

It looks like Pima County updated some results and they're finished now.  Arizona still has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification: 1206
Provisional ballots: 3257
Ballots ready for tabulation: 2207

Total: 6670

Updating with these numbers and using the same Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 5415 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 1049 from them.  He currently trails by 10988 so would finish behind by 9939.

The remaining ballots are in the following counties:

Yuma 2155 (300 signature cure, 1855 provisional)
Cochise 1817 (all ready to tabulate)
Apache 1700 (300 signature cure, 1400 provisional)
Maricopa 990 (600 signature cure, 390 provisional)
Graham 8 (6 signature cure, 2 provisional)

Based on present trends (without the Trump-friendly assumptions) I'm estimating the final margin will be within about 1000 of where it is now, i.e. between 10K and 12K for Biden. 

[GP270watch]

 Arizona has been called but still releasing vote totals

3,598 from Pima

Biden 43.8% / 56.2% Trump

 Trump gained votes here but is till down by more votes than votes remaining.

Biden leads by 10,988 statewide. Biden 49.4 / Trump 49.08

[Crumpets]

NYT has also called both Georgia and North Carolina. 306.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1327305183836205057?s=19

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

306-232. It may not be the landslide I was hoping for and half-expected, but this is beautiful poetic justice after 2016 and Trump’s obnoxious boasting about a “landslide victory”. Especially so since Biden will technically get more votes than him due to the fact that two electors defected Trump last time.

[psychprofessor]

Thinking Biden should have the map photocopied and handed to Trump on 1/20/21 showing his landslide victory.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is there any website that is tracking the progress of the Georgia recount and if any numbers have changed?  I heard some counties have already finished their recount.

[President Johnson]

While 306-232 is not the landslide most of us hoped for, it's still a resounding win. And ironic one with that. I don't recall any two elections in which the tally ended up being the same, let alone two consecutive. Joe Biden won the popular vote by a clear margin. And for now, 50.8% is the highest vote share of a challenger who defeated an incumbent since FDR.

I just wonder how likely it is the popular vote win will be larger than 2012? Can Joe Biden get to 51.1%, and Trump below 47.2%?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I just wonder how likely it is the popular vote win will be larger than 2012? Can Joe Biden get to 51.1%, and Trump below 47.2%?

It’s almost certain at this point, the overwhelming majority of outstanding ballots are located in deeply blue states.

[Hammy]

I see Georgia's been called, is the recount completed?

[emailking]

No it's still going.

[psychprofessor]

I just wonder how likely it is the popular vote win will be larger than 2012? Can Joe Biden get to 51.1%, and Trump below 47.2%?

It’s almost certain at this point, the overwhelming majority of outstanding ballots are located in deeply blue states.

Yes. Trump will fall somewhere between 46.5-46.9

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]