2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

Poll: 70 percent of Republicans don’t think the election was free and fair
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488

Lots of Cope

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442
there is no bottom...

Do they really think that going full retard is the best strategy for the runoff?

well they do need to speak directly to their base.

That’s pretty much it. Reactionary thought is a disease.

[Bootes Void]

LIL JON FF!!!
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/525194-lil-jon-slams-paul-gosar-dont-quote-my-songs

https://twitter.com/LilJon/status/1325829818441736193

https://twitter.com/LilJon/status/1321971034866753537

[pppolitics]

Poll: 70 percent of Republicans don’t think the election was free and fair
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488

Lots of Cope

The way the Republicans think is that: if Democrats won, it's because of voter fraud.

It's never because people like the Democrats or their policies better.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Will Biden crack 60% in New York when absentees are counted?

[BudgieForce]

Poll: 70 percent of Republicans don’t think the election was free and fair
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488

Lots of Cope

The overall results is 60/34 for thinking the election was free and fair.

Which is probably pretty low in the grand scheme of things. Although I have to imagine public opinion was even more divided after 2000.

[DINGO Joe]

Will Biden crack 60% in New York when absentees are counted?

Yeah, just like other states, the absentee will be heavily heavily D

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1325907540069277702


So this is official, the party is all in on doing this


Reminder that nice reasonable moderates as Mitt Romney and Susan Collins have made this man shadow president.

[pppolitics]

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue of Georgia called on the state’s GOP secretary of state to resign on Monday, citing “failures” in the election process but not providing any specific evidence to support their claims.

“There have been too many failures in Georgia elections this year and the most recent election has shined a national light on the problems,” Loeffler and Perdue said in a joint statement. “The Secretary of State has failed to deliver honest and transparent elections. He has failed the people of Georgia, and he should step down immediately."

The Georgia Republicans will both face runoff elections on Jan. 5. Loeffler, who beat back an intra-party challenge from Rep. Doug Collins, will go up against Rev. Raphael Warnock, while Perdue will go up against Jon Ossoff.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger responded in a statement Monday saying he would not resign, and defended his office's handling of the election. He said the election was a "resounding success" from an administration perspective. He highlighted his office's briefings and updates to argue that they had conducted the process with transparency.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secretary-state-resign-435484

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

All they're doing is disenfranchising their own supporters by making them think voting is pointless because the system is rigged.

Two of the dumbest members of the Senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cochise drops some more

2,315 for Trump

1,017 for Biden

[Ferguson97]

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

All they're doing is disenfranchising their own supporters by making them think voting is pointless because the system is rigged.

Two of the dumbest members of the Senate.

I disagree, I think it will rile up the base and make them more likely to vote.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442
there is no bottom...

Do they really think that going full retard is the best strategy for the runoff?

At this point why not? Almost half of the state voted for Trump

This certainly won’t win over Ds and may turn off more moderate Perdue/Biden voters. Anyways, it seems that the GA runoffs are going to be a total sh*tshow.

They’re not counting on winning over any Ds. Turnout is certain to be much lower than the general so their smartest strategy is to throw red meat at their base and hope enough stay engaged that they win while the Dem base shrinks.

Georgia of 2020 is not the Georgia of 2018 or even the Georgia of 2020. This special will not have low turnout. If anything, I would suspect Ds to be supercharged now that they realize their state just went blue. Likewise, now that Trump is off the ballot, it's going to be a hard lift to get those hardcore Trumpers, who only came out for him, to come back and vote for Loeffler and Perdue.

Oh, I believe turnout will be high and it won't be like past run-offs, but turnout was so extraordinarily high in the general that I can not believe that achievement can be sustained.

[SLA8]

The sad thing is that I bet 90% of these government officials who are complaining about fraud don't even believe in their own claims and are just deciding to gaslight everyone in a naked ploy for power and influence. It's scary.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Any idea when the next state will be called?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

All they're doing is disenfranchising their own supporters by making them think voting is pointless because the system is rigged.

Two of the dumbest members of the Senate.

I disagree, I think it will rile up the base and make them more likely to vote.

Yes, but I think the ‘vote for me and we’ll install Trump anyway’ move just cost them every Biden crossover voter.

[SLA8]

Perdue and Loeffler's gambit might juice up turnout for them but wouldn't it also juice up turnout for their opponents?

[Hammy]

Is anyone else getting progressively more worried about the Supreme Court throwing out the results and handing Trump the win? I thought the GOP "rigging" talk would have already died down by now but it seems like it's just becoming fiercer and more mainstream.

State legislatures and Senate are where the move will be--courts have nobody to answer to any further as they aren't elected officials.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with reports from Cochise and Mohave Counties. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 5686
Provisional ballots: 40702
Ballots ready for tabulation: 25109

Total: 71497

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 60513 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 9706 from them.  He currently trails by 15432, so would finish behind by 5726.

Of the estimated remaining 71K ballots, 38K are in Maricopa and 18K are in Pima, so without the Trump-friendly assumptions it's more likely that Biden gains than loses from here.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The website has updated with reports from Cochise and Mohave Counties. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 5686
Provisional ballots: 40702
Ballots ready for tabulation: 25109

Total: 71497

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 60513 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 9706 from them.  He currently trails by 15432, so would finish behind by 5726.

Of the estimated remaining 71K ballots, 38K are in Maricopa and 18K are in Pima, so without the Trump-friendly assumptions it's more likely that Biden gains than loses from here.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden.

What are you, GM? Some kinda math nerd or something?

(Seriously: these are fantastic!)  

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with reports from Cochise and Mohave Counties. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 5686
Provisional ballots: 40702
Ballots ready for tabulation: 25109

Total: 71497

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 60513 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 9706 from them.  He currently trails by 15432, so would finish behind by 5726.

Of the estimated remaining 71K ballots, 38K are in Maricopa and 18K are in Pima, so without the Trump-friendly assumptions it's more likely that Biden gains than loses from here.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden.

What are you, GM? Some kinda math nerd or something?

(Seriously: these are fantastic!)  

This is 89% likely to be true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1325920681016647680

[MATTROSE94]

Any word on President Donald Trump's coup attempt or no?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1325920681016647680

Well, good luck to them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1325920681016647680

And I'm sure every single "tip" will be legitimate and not a joke.  

After all, what could go wrong publicly posting a phone number like that?