2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

Would that be an unusually high (80%) number of provisionals to be accepted? (Just in general?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

Would that be an unusually high (80%) number of provisionals to be accepted? (Just in general?)

Yes, and the 50% for signature cures is also likely to be too high.  I deliberately used Trump-friendly assumptions to see if it was doable for him to get close.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The four seasons thing was already a joke, but now this is just... lol:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1325813524069806083

It would be a real coup for the Trump campgain if they could get TIGER KING as their key witness for election fraud.

[Non Swing Voter]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

Would that be an unusually high (80%) number of provisionals to be accepted? (Just in general?)

Yes, and the 50% for signature cures is also likely to be too high.  I deliberately used Trump-friendly assumptions to see if it was doable for him to get close.

why do you think they aren't calling it then?  Biden is already over the top so it's not particularly controversial at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

Would that be an unusually high (80%) number of provisionals to be accepted? (Just in general?)

Yes, and the 50% for signature cures is also likely to be too high.  I deliberately used Trump-friendly assumptions to see if it was doable for him to get close.

why do you think they aren't calling it then?  Biden is already over the top so it's not particularly controversial at this point.

I think they might be waiting for more out of Maricopa.  It and Pima (Biden territory) have the lion's share of the outstanding votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325803054344581124

I have to say that I've been very impressed with Georgia's election apparatus for this election, both at the state and county levels.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325803054344581124

I have to say that I've been very impressed with Georgia's election apparatus for this election, both at the state and county levels.

Me too.  But why is that?  I'd like to think it's because they are being responsible.  But I have to think a factor is that they know the state is changing and they can't get away with BS anymore.  They have a political future beyond Donald Trump and his personal interests.

[Gass3268]

Arizona is confirmed D, for one thing.

Why it is confirmed if new numbers are T-friendly???

What's left (Special and Provisional ballots) aren't Trump friendly.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325803054344581124

I have to say that I've been very impressed with Georgia's election apparatus for this election, both at the state and county levels.

...not surprising that he's saying that

Georgia is under complete Republican control.

If voter fraud happens, it would be under his party's watch.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325803054344581124

I have to say that I've been very impressed with Georgia's election apparatus for this election, both at the state and county levels.

How long until Republicans turn on Kemp and Duncan for not conforming to the voter fraud narrative?

[GP270watch]

JAMES WOODS PULLED HIS ENTIRE NET WORTH OUT OF THE MARKET BECAUSE HE WAS DOOMING A BIDEN WIN AND NOW HAS DELETED THE TWEET LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

They always do this. You're about to get a zillion commercials targeting seniors and conservatives about how money isn't "real" and you should only hoard gold and silver.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1325513157926932480

[Virginiá]

Me too.  But why is that?  I'd like to think it's because they are being responsible.  But I have to think a factor is that they know the state is changing and they can't get away with BS anymore.  They have a political future beyond Donald Trump and his personal interests.

Eh, if that was the case, given Georgia's sordid history of dirty tricks and abuse of power, I think they'd actually double down rather than let up. It's what the NCGOP did, and they didn't really pay a penalty for it. They just screwed themselves over by changing the rules in ways that they only later realized hurt them at that particular moment.

[MarkD]

Endorsements are still not worth a thimble full of spit.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Once this is released, rip up the Jackson ones and take them to the bank to get Tubman's. As long as both serial numbers on the ripped ones match, it's legal.

Fact Check.... wait until the Jackson's are no longer legit before anyone on Atlas / TE rips up their $20 Bills and takes them to the bank.

Stockdale for VP gotta point that the Jacksons will likely be replaced by Tubman's under a Biden Gvt, but I would highly suggest not tearing up your money quite yet, until the new bills come around.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/politics/harriet-tubman-20-mnuchin-trnd/index.html

The Jackson 20s will remain legal tender indefinitely. For that matter the old Jackson 10s are still legal tender, tho they are worth far more than face value to collectors, so I certainly wouldn't tear those up if you have them.


(Source: National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian Institution via Wikimedia Commons)

[Crumpets]

Looks like Biden just cleared the 3% popular vote victory mark on the NYT's numbers.

[Bootes Void]

When will the next vote dump be?

[afleitch]

Looks like Biden just cleared the 3% popular vote victory mark on the NYT's numbers.

One of the worst but now forgotten takes was that Biden needed over x% lead to be sure etc. Some were saying 3%, some as high as 5%. The vote spread for Biden was actually quite effective.

[wbrocks67]

More tiny batches in GA.

Biden now up to 10,621 vote lead, +0.22%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

It will be over 100k in the end. Since America no longer has a president, the desperate delusional moron in chief will try to challenge it anyway and get his ass laughed out of court.

I'm here for it!

Can we save Torsella with that number?

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

It will be over 100k in the end. Since America no longer has a president, the desperate delusional moron in chief will try to challenge it anyway and get his ass laughed out of court.

I'm here for it!

Can we save Torsella with that number?

I was just looking at that... it looks like he's still down about 80K. I don't think unfortunately it will be enough The elimination of straight ticket voting really screwed us this year in PA. Shapiro outran by a lot but Torsella and Ahmad fell behind, especially Ahmad. The Libertarian got like 3%+ in that race -____-

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pennsylvania margin go up to 45,670

It will be over 100k in the end. Since America no longer has a president, the desperate delusional moron in chief will try to challenge it anyway and get his ass laughed out of court.

I'm here for it!

Can we save Torsella with that number?

I was just looking at that... it looks like he's still down about 80K. I don't think unfortunately it will be enough The elimination of straight ticket voting really screwed us this year in PA. Shapiro outran by a lot but Torsella and Ahmad fell behind, especially Ahmad. The Libertarian got like 3%+ in that race -____-

Ahmad’s last name hurt her too

[Gass3268]

Another batch from Clark County:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1325846893239263234?s=20

[GP270watch]

Another batch from Clark County:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1325846893239263234?s=20

The wall just got 10 feet higher!

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1325138042047377408

The Aytolli speaks!

F*** Ayatollah Khomeini. We are very proud to have a liberal democracy, and I hope that maybe, possibly, Biden's narrow election might possibly Spark a reversal, or at least egg cessation of the worldwide attack on liberal democratic values.

Just because you are scared of the opinion of your people, a******, doesn't make the tension of a tightly contested election one iota an example for authoritarianism