2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A few minor updates including AZ and PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 57,844 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~405,700 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 174,100 of them - (42.9%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 52,286 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~382,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~220,100 of them - (57.6%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump made a bit of ground in Arizona, but in the next couple of GA updates, it will most likely show Biden in the lead.

Keep in mind that there are a lot of Pittsburgh mail-in votes still to come for PA that have their counting delayed.

Thanks once more for your tremendous updates.

[Badger]

Re: The Pima Drop.

Is that all the remaining votes in Pima, or just the earlier ones, that were always more likely to be favorable to Trump?

My understanding of Arizona is that the main "gap" is between earlier-counted votes and later-counted votes, where earlier-counted votes are expected to be friendlier to Trump than later-counted votes.  Meaning that the first drop from X county would be good for Trump, but the second drop would be worse.

So if that's the first drop from Pima, and Trump only "stayed on track", then that's good for Biden.  But if that was all the Pima votes, then it's a good result for Trump.

Your analysis is correct. I don't think that is the final drop from Pima

[wbrocks67]

If Biden just matches Hillarys 2016 philly total, that would add 80K to his margin alone, which would put him 22K above. With nothing else.

[Ferguson97]

It would be truly wild to see Biden lose Arizona but win Georgia - once again showing how literally every prior everyone had going into this race was hot garbage.

[Inmate Trump]

Why hasnt NV been called?

[Hammy]

When will the race be called?

Probably tomorrow

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Any word on when we can expect updates from any of the remaining states?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am, but that's an unsafe call

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

Georgia is going to be so close that the networks will not call it even if/when Biden takes the lead.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

When will the race be called?

Not soon enough

[South Dakota Democrat]

Unless Biden takes an ACTUAL lead (and not a theoretical media one) in Pennsylvania, this race is far from over.

Yeah, it sure is slow. Still a lot of conjecture from Dems, I'm not at all convinced Biden has this.

I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Biden loses PA but wins Eerie county.

Yeah, that would really be eerie.

I see what you did there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How much of Philly is still out?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Why hasnt NV been called?

Horserace narrative. Nobody wants to call the race for Biden.

[GP270watch]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am, but that's an unsafe call

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

Georgia is going to be so close that the networks will not call it even if/when Biden takes the lead.

 Georgia is going to be recount litigation hell for a while.  Trump can still win because he has outs. He has more vote outstanding where he's trailing but gaining AZ,NV and less votes outstanding where he's up and his lead is getting cut into GA, PA. I think Biden needs PA to slam the door shut.

[forsythvoter]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

Carrying on the Forsyth County tradition.

Yep. And part of the "blueing" of Forsyth County

[wbrocks67]

Biden only down 53K in PA! +5K

[GeorgiaModerate]

When will the race be called?

estimates

If it's GA - 1-4am, but that's an unsafe call

If it's PA - 2-5am

If it's NV - tomorrow

Georgia is going to be so close that the networks will not call it even if/when Biden takes the lead.

 Georgia is going to be recount litigation hell for a while.

To go along with our double Senate runoff hell.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the 9k purely military? Or 9k military and expats. Because there's a BIG difference.

I doubt the state is going to end up counting more than 2-3k of those ballots since this is just the amount out but they only have until tomorrow to arrive. It includes both military and expats. Also, in GA, the military vote is heavily AA, so probably doesn't lean strongly one way or another.

The provisional ballots may matter more - Gwinnett alone has 1k of them. In a typical election, they lean pretty strongly Democratic.

You've been killing it, Forsyth.  Keep it up!

Thanks! Just trying to make sure we have all the facts

Carrying on the Forsyth County tradition.

Yep. And part of the "blueing" of Forsyth County

I wonder if Forsyth will vote Democratic by 2032.

[EJ24]

Holy hell, Trump is getting absolutely destroyed in Delaware county, PA.

[Inmate Trump]

Assuming Biden wins PA, is a recount in GA still likely to happen

[CookieDamage]

If Biden is ahead by more than a few thousand in Georgia recounts wont do much lmao

[Buzz]

Really hope AZ can go red so Biden doesn't get 300EV

[GeorgiaModerate]

Assuming Biden wins PA, is a recount in GA still likely to happen

Depends on how close it is and how petty the Trump campaign wants to be, assuming they end up behind.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’ve become greatly attached to blue Arizona for various reasons, not least among them the 306-232 map.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Assuming Biden wins PA, is a recount in GA still likely to happen

New Mexico had a recount in 2000 that didn't get that much attention.

[Benjamin Frank]

Some people seem to know this better than me, but from what I can tell, Biden is running out the clock well in Arizona.