2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Middle-aged Europe]

So people were saying we would get more Georgia results at 11, is that true?

Here you go, charcuterie:

https://twitter.com/NPRinskeep/status/1324331884910923779

Prepare for an epic let down

I've strapped myself in, but still holding the doom levels at DOOM-CON 5.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1324378334395015168

Context on why Allegheny wont count their ballots until Friday.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1324378334395015168

Context on why Allegheny wont count their ballots until Friday.

Hope Biden takes the lead before with Philly votes, so that we can be relived.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is from the 538 blog, with the estimated remaining votes as of earlier this morning (note: this is still a moving target!)

County     Votes      Lean in 2016 relative to state
Chatham  17,157   D+22
Fulton      11,200   D+51
Clayton      7,408   D+75
Gwinnett    7,338   D+23
Forsyth      4,713   R+29
Harris        3,641   R+49
Bryan        3,027   R+38
Laurens     1,797   R+24
Putnam     1,552   R+37
Sumter     1,202   D+51
Cobb           700   D+7
Floyd           682   R+38
Burke          494   D+8
Taylor          456   R+18

Weighted average: D+19.  But don't forget that absentee ballots are running much more D than the above partisan leans (e.g. last I heard, Biden was actually winning Forsyth absentees).

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

What he’s saying is that he’ll be trying to block all Biden cabinet appointments as long as they are Democrats, does anyone believe that he’ll do anything else?
Then why did Axios feel the need to add in his comments about how he’ll be fine with ‘centrists’ when you know damn well he’s making that statement in bad faith?

Side note, Biden should absolutely take Trump’s acting secretary playbook when Mitch McConnell demands he appoint

And a quick shout out to the people in Maine who voted Biden/Collins so they could get the good feeling of being such independent minded free thinkers. Great call guys.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

There was pretty clear ticket splitting of Biden/Purdue likely from the suburbs this time. If those people show up in January that wont change. But I guess we'll see soon either way. Republicans only need 1 to hold, dems need both.

[tjstarling]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

Question is, (as seems likely) after Trump is dumped, whether these suburbanites feel compelled to return to their republican roots or if the realignment in suburbs is a more permanent fixture.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where’s the Georgia update?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

There was pretty clear ticket splitting of Biden/Purdue likely from the suburbs this time. If those people show up in January that wont change. But I guess we'll see soon either way. Republicans only need 1 to hold, dems need both.

I think they won't get either due to lower turnout. Hope to be wrong though.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

What he’s saying is that he’ll be trying to block all Biden cabinet appointments as long as they are Democrats, does anyone believe that he’ll do anything else?
Then why did Axios feel the need to add in his comments about how he’ll be fine with ‘centrists’ when you know damn well he’s making that statement in bad faith?

Indeed. Let's remember that Orin Hatch said that if Obama really wanted a justice confirmed, he should nominate somone like Merrick Garland...

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

Ok. One, all you Doom sayers or haters have been wrong on a lot of things. Second, elecorates change, new voter registration is until December 7th for Georgia to vote in that election. The narrative is different and Ossoff with Warnock (who is running against an unpopular Senator) could drive turnout. At least having the chance, no where did I say he would win but at least get the chance. But please go doom say somewhere else, you guys are super annoying.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh if you think Trump is going to leave the picture quietly...you don’t know Donald Trump.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

Yeah, it's increasingly looking like Stacey Abrams's strategy of just overwhelming the rest of the state with votes from the Atlanta metro was right too early rather than wrong. Demographic wise, Georgia is on an express train to Illinoisville, and 2020 isn't the last stop.

[Hnv1]

Well it’s 11am ET...where’s GA?

[rhg2052]

Outstanding ballots in Fulton County is now down to about 2,000 - Fulton County Elections Director

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324376477366890496

[forsythvoter]

This is good stuff. The last batch of Cobb mail-ins were 10k Biden to 4K Trump or about D+45 for comparison. I'm assuming the Gwinnett ones will follow a similar trend.

The Trump campaign's hopes rest with the rurals and if they can keep those margins with the mail-ins.

This is from the 538 blog, with the estimated remaining votes as of earlier this morning (note: this is still a moving target!)

County     Votes      Lean in 2016 relative to state
Chatham  17,157   D+22
Fulton      11,200   D+51
Clayton      7,408   D+75
Gwinnett    7,338   D+23
Forsyth      4,713   R+29
Harris        3,641   R+49
Bryan        3,027   R+38
Laurens     1,797   R+24
Putnam     1,552   R+37
Sumter     1,202   D+51
Cobb           700   D+7
Floyd           682   R+38
Burke          494   D+8
Taylor          456   R+18

Weighted average: D+19.  But don't forget that absentee ballots are running much more D than the above partisan leans (e.g. last I heard, Biden was actually winning Forsyth absentees).

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

Yeah there is virtually zero chance the Dems win those runoffs. I mean zero.

This is swperste from my hardline stand on fools gold Georgia. I mean that point is the main one. You think with Georgia as close as it is would have a BETTER Dem result with a trifecta clinching majority on the line? Absolutely not. Doug Jones had better odds in Alabama.

[Bootes Void]

Outstanding ballots in Fulton County is now down to about 2,000 - Fulton County Elections Director

Haw they released the data?

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

The factors to consider here would be that 2008 Georgia isn't 2020 Georgia (i.e. if John Barrow can get 48% in a 2018 runoff, then Ossoff as a fighting chance in a 2020 runoff, especially thanks to Warnock's presumed coattails) & that R turnout could itself be depressed while D turnout continues to be motivated if Trump has already lost (& obviously isn't himself on the ballot again) while control of the Senate remains at stake.

Republicans have more to lose in a runoff compared to Dems. 2020 will be closer than the blowout in 2008, but the point remains. If Ossoff cant win in the general, I don't think that bodes well for him. No clue how good Warnock will do, but if Biden couldnt boost Ossoff, why would Warnock.

They'd be able complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

There was pretty clear ticket splitting of Biden/Purdue likely from the suburbs this time. If those people show up in January that wont change. But I guess we'll see soon either way. Republicans only need 1 to hold, dems need both.

I'm not sure there is much Biden/Purdue ticket splitting. Current vote shares:

President: Trump 49.6%, Biden 49.2%, Other 1.2%
Senate: Purdue 50.0%, Ossoff 47.6%, Other 2.3%

Purdue's overperforming Trump by a little but most of the gap is from Shane Hazel the Libertarian candidate in the Senate race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well it’s 11am ET...where’s GA?

*checks outside* We're still east of Alabama.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324376477366890496

The worst timeline.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

Ok. One, all you Doom sayers or haters have been wrong on a lot of things. Second, elecorates change, new voter registration is until December 7th for Georgia to vote in that election. The narrative is different and Ossoff with Warnock (who is running against an unpopular Senator) could drive turnout. At least having the chance, no where did I say he would win but at least get the chance. But please go doom say somewhere else, you guys are super annoying.

I hope both the democrats lose. I want divided government.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324376477366890496

Facepalm.