2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1324370600018792450?s=20

Terrible news for Trump in Pennsylvania! The media networks should just get it over with and call the state for Biden now.

They're probably waiting for Biden to take the lead in ballots counted.

Yep, it appears mail ballots are going blue even in super red counties. And what's surprising is Trumps lead is not very good in some red places (like Luzerne) that still have more mail ins to count

[ultraviolet]

Trump got beat by a guy with a middle-class blue-collar background, a son with addiction problems, a son who died of cancer, and a former wife and daughter who died in a car accident. Trump lost to someone with a far more American life story than his own, and refusing to accept the truth of the results is the ultimate projection of his own personal insecurity.  

DUDE the election is not over. Pipe down.

You look at all the numbers publically accessible right now and tell me that the math is not clearly pointing to a Biden win. It's ridiculous that things have even gotten this far, but that's what authoritarianism does.

Cry more. You literally said Trump would lose big. NOT ONLY were you massively wrong and I was right but Trump may actually win.

You were NOT right. You thought Trump would win big

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

There's no way any networks (besides someone like DDHQ) calls PA before Biden takes the lead there, even though he's favored to win it by a lot.

As they shouldn't.  While things look good for Biden, there's lots of moving parts and you wanna make sure you get such an important call right.  

[skbl17]

Just a reminder, Georgia's counting will not be finished once the remaining accepted absentees are processed today. There are three groups of ballots that still have yet to be counted:

- PROVISIONALS: Provisional ballots are for those voters who, for some reason, could not vote a regular ballot at the polling place. These could include voters whose eligibility to vote could not be proven, those who voted in a precinct that was kept open late, or those who voted in their county of residence but at a different precinct from their assigned one, for example. 28 of those votes were counted as of 10am this morning. Voters who cast a provisional ballot have until tomorrow afternoon to sort those issues out with their county's elections registrar.

For reference, there were 12,091 provisional votes counted in the 2018 governor's race; Abrams won 71% of them. In the 2016 election, there were about 7,600 provisionals counted; Clinton won 63% of them. I don't know just how many provisionals will be counted (Cobb County says they have 882 yet to be counted,) but I think there will be a few thousand. This is a weird year, but if history holds, these ballots will favor Biden.

- OVERSEAS: UOCAVA ballots from overseas and military voters had to be postmarked by 7pm on Election Day, but could arrive as late as Friday I believe. I don't expect there to be many of these.

- "CURED" BALLOTS: These are absentee ballots that were rejected because of signature mismatches and such. For example, Cobb County says that one of the batches of ballots they'll count tomorrow include "any ballots with missing or mismatched signatures cured by affidavit." There will only be a few hundred of these at most, maybe 1,000, statewide, but based on the demographic data of voters who cast these ballots, I expect these to lean towards Biden.

So if Biden takes the lead in Georgia today, don't be surprised if his lead continues to increase a bit more through the weekend and into next week. Even if he falls 200 or so votes short today, don't be surprised if that changes over the next few days.

Remember, the election is not over until every county has certified their results, and that process doesn't begin for another few days.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/MiguelMValle/status/1324373402996658176?s=19

In principle, I have no problem with that. Someone should keep an eye on the Trump observers though.

Poll Watchers are usually in their own area off to the side. They won't be able to just walk around and mess stuff up.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Trump got beat by a guy with a middle-class blue-collar background, a son with addiction problems, a son who died of cancer, and a former wife and daughter who died in a car accident. Trump lost to someone with a far more American life story than his own, and refusing to accept the truth of the results is the ultimate projection of his own personal insecurity.  

DUDE the election is not over. Pipe down.

You look at all the numbers publically accessible right now and tell me that the math is not clearly pointing to a Biden win. It's ridiculous that things have even gotten this far, but that's what authoritarianism does.

Cry more. You literally said Trump would lose big. NOT ONLY were you massively wrong and I was right but Trump may actually win.

Your map has Trump reaching a number he will not reach, nor does Trump have a chance of winning this unless if he utilizes the federal government to hijack this.

Anyway - how's that John James endorsement going?

Better luck against Whitmer, maybe?

[Ferguson97]

Could you folks stop bickering and doomering so we can focus on reports about numbers?

Has anyone heard about the times that we expect meaningful updates from PA, GA, NV and AZ?

11 - GA
12 - NV, PA
Tonight - AZ

If GA is called for Biden, that gets him to 269. That'll be an interesting hour where everyone talks about a hypothetical tie.

[SN2903]

Trump got beat by a guy with a middle-class blue-collar background, a son with addiction problems, a son who died of cancer, and a former wife and daughter who died in a car accident. Trump lost to someone with a far more American life story than his own, and refusing to accept the truth of the results is the ultimate projection of his own personal insecurity.  

DUDE the election is not over. Pipe down.

You look at all the numbers publically accessible right now and tell me that the math is not clearly pointing to a Biden win. It's ridiculous that things have even gotten this far, but that's what authoritarianism does.

Cry more. You literally said Trump would lose big. NOT ONLY were you massively wrong and I was right but Trump may actually win.

You were NOT right. You thought Trump would win big

He did win big. He won Iowa Ohio by 8%. FL by 3.5%. He won PA, GA, NC, AZ most likely.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I get that conservatives wanted a republican Senate. A republican House. Republican Governor. Republican state legislatures. Buy why the actual f**k would you want this unhinged moron to be your President for another four years?!

The fact that Trump will lose but the GOP kept control of the Senate and gained in the House tells us that a lot conservatives *did* want the first things on your list but not Trump.

I had an email discussion a few weeks ago with an old friend of mine (a conservative/libertarian economist) in which he said that his dream outcome for the election was for Trump to lose every state while the Republicans ended up in control of both houses of Congress. 

Yes and no. While yes, there are conservatives who did not vote for him, I suspect they make up only a small percentage. Trump got 7+ million more votes than last time. If we take into account that he did lose said conservatives, this would mean that at least 10 million people voted for him this time, but not in 2016. Crazy.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think what doomers in this thread need to realize is that all of these Trump tactics are not about winning at this point, the race is over, Trump has lost and that won't change.  This is merely a PR stunt to make his supporters feel like the race was stolen despite the fact that the margins in some of these states like PA probably won't be all that close when all is said and done.  Reason: he is staring at a lot of legal problems in New York and wants to create civil unrest so prosecutors don't touch him.

[forsythvoter]

Completely agree with this. We really should all be focused more on the understanding the process, ballots left to be counted and making predictions based off the evidence - and yes, there are different ways to interpret the same evidence but you need to start with the evidence. There's too much asserting on this forum without justification.

Could you folks stop bickering and doomering so we can focus on reports about numbers?

Has anyone heard about the times that we expect meaningful updates from PA, GA, NV and AZ?

11 - GA
12 - NV, PA
Tonight - AZ

Awesome, thanks.

[ultraviolet]

Trump got beat by a guy with a middle-class blue-collar background, a son with addiction problems, a son who died of cancer, and a former wife and daughter who died in a car accident. Trump lost to someone with a far more American life story than his own, and refusing to accept the truth of the results is the ultimate projection of his own personal insecurity.  

DUDE the election is not over. Pipe down.

You look at all the numbers publically accessible right now and tell me that the math is not clearly pointing to a Biden win. It's ridiculous that things have even gotten this far, but that's what authoritarianism does.

Cry more. You literally said Trump would lose big. NOT ONLY were you massively wrong and I was right but Trump may actually win.

You were NOT right. You thought Trump would win big

He did win big. He won Iowa Ohio by 8%. FL by 3.5%. He won PA, GA, NC, AZ most likely.

He didn’t even win...

[pppolitics]

Even if Trump actually did get an injunction to stop votes coming in after Election Day, it doesn't change the writing on the wall in PA. It probably means he keeps NC and maybe GA, though.

GA doesn't accept ballots that arrive after election day anyway.

Nope. Court ruling stated that for this election, any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by tomorrow will be counted. No idea why nobody is talking about these (or the provisionals, for that matter), which combined will likely be north of 20k votes and 70% Democratic.

In GA?

Source?

[MillennialModerate]

It does seem that the numbers in PA have tightened toward Trump

Cohn saying “Biden on track” as opposed to “This likely won’t be close”

I know I know. I’m a worrier

[Ferguson97]

Trump got beat by a guy with a middle-class blue-collar background, a son with addiction problems, a son who died of cancer, and a former wife and daughter who died in a car accident. Trump lost to someone with a far more American life story than his own, and refusing to accept the truth of the results is the ultimate projection of his own personal insecurity.  

DUDE the election is not over. Pipe down.

You look at all the numbers publically accessible right now and tell me that the math is not clearly pointing to a Biden win. It's ridiculous that things have even gotten this far, but that's what authoritarianism does.

Cry more. You literally said Trump would lose big. NOT ONLY were you massively wrong and I was right but Trump may actually win.

You were NOT right. You thought Trump would win big

He did win big. He won Iowa Ohio by 8%. FL by 3.5%. He won PA, GA, NC, AZ most likely.

Biden will win PA and AZ, and possibly GA.

Cope.

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1324374362561126401?s=21
Can Biden still take the lead in PA today without Allegheny?

[Sir Mohamed]

My take would be the Trump campaign, maybe except Trump himself who is delusional, knows their legal maneuvers are nonsense and have little substance from a legal standpoint, but want to spin the narrative the election was stolen. Not "Biden won and it's over", but instead "we fought against the corrupt Deep State, and the election was stolen from Trump".

[SN2903]

I think what doomers in this thread need to realize is that all of these Trump tactics are not about winning at this point, the race is over, Trump has lost and that won't change.  This is merely a PR stunt to make his supporters feel like the race was stolen despite the fact that the margins in some of these states like PA probably won't be all that close when all is said and done.  Reason: he is staring at a lot of legal problems in New York and wants to create civil unrest so prosecutors don't touch him.

That is so wrong. If Trump takes AZ and GA , PA will be litigated heavily.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/erinK_mccarthy/status/1324373269190004736?s=19

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1324374362561126401?s=21
Can Biden still take the lead in PA today without Allegheny?

This is borderline criminal

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1324374362561126401?s=21
Can Biden still take the lead in PA today without Allegheny?

Yes

[ProudModerate2]

With Nevada dumps about to come, I think one thing is very clear:  The Fox/AP Arizona call has been handled very poorly.

If Nevada drops and the state is called for Biden, then Fox News would have Biden at 270 votes and should call the race for Biden.  So they're going to be sitting there talking about the next president, Joe Biden, winner of the election.  And nobody's going to believe them.  It'll be comical.

If they truly believe that Arizona is a done deal for Biden, they need to thoroughly explain it and sell it to their viewers.  If we don't believe the call, we're not going to believe any of the subsequent coverage based on the call.

So basically, you are saying "get the popcorn ready, and watch Fox News for some good comedy."
Love it.

[BudgieForce]

Oh, I thought the rumor was that Allegheny County was done counting. I guess now.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/erinK_mccarthy/status/1324373269190004736?s=19

LOL, what a pathetic display.  Pam is really gunning for a FoxNews show.

[Adam Griffin]

Even if Trump actually did get an injunction to stop votes coming in after Election Day, it doesn't change the writing on the wall in PA. It probably means he keeps NC and maybe GA, though.

GA doesn't accept ballots that arrive after election day anyway.

Nope. Court ruling stated that for this election, any ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by tomorrow will be counted. No idea why nobody is talking about these (or the provisionals, for that matter), which combined will likely be north of 20k votes and 70% Democratic.

In GA?

Source?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/georgia-absentee-ballots-deadline-order/index.html