2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[philly09]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

It seems pretty clear that as of a few hours ago there were approximately 475k mail-in ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, but is it possible that the remainder of that 600K was counted but not reported?

That's probably it. They might just do one giant dump for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Also, people may have missed it, but Biden's lead is nearly up to 3% in Michigan. It appears Trump's team was correct that the state was drifting from them.

Joe Biden 2,788,600 (50.6%)
Donald Trump 2,640,185 (47.9%)

[DaleCooper]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

[wbrocks67]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

It seems pretty clear that as of a few hours ago there were approximately 475k mail-in ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, but is it possible that the remainder of that 600K was counted but not reported?

That's probably it. They might just do one giant dump for Biden.

Yep, this is possible. I don't think Philly has done a dump since last night, so it may be that things are getting "counted" but not added to the totals yet. There are many counties like Lehigh and Erie that are being VERY slow in adding their mail ballots to the totals too.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Guys, stop.

Sorry Tender, but Australians dont take orders from Austrians.

We were given two extra letters for a reason.

Damnnnnn shots fired!

I needed this laugh.

[wbrocks67]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

Well who was reporting the 450K? It's possible people didn't have the correct figures. I'm going directly off of the DOS website/Boockvar who had it about 750K left at 10pm last night. The figure was 6.2M counted in PA at that point, and now it's 6.35M, so that would mean 600K left have to be *counted* as of yet it would appear. But it's possible that many of them have been *processed* but not *counted* so maybe thats where people are getting other totals from

Either way, Philly has *at least* 120K outstanding and that would nearly narrow the margin alone for Biden, since they're going like 90-10 for him.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1324319917190090753

[SN2903]

I'm  back!!

[MillennialModerate]

Is there any update from Arizona? Do we know where the outstanding votes are from?

Most are very Trump favorable Maricopa ballots, scattered amounts from random counties and I guess a tiny bit from Biden friendly Pima county

[DaleCooper]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

Well who was reporting the 450K? It's possible people didn't have the correct figures. I'm going directly off of the DOS website/Boockvar who had it about 750K left at 10pm last night. The figure was 6.2M counted in PA at that point, and now it's 6.35M, so that would mean 600K left have to be *counted* as of yet it would appear. But it's possible that many of them have been *processed* but not *counted* so maybe thats where people are getting other totals from

Either way, Philly has *at least* 120K outstanding and that would nearly narrow the margin alone for Biden, since they're going like 90-10 for him.

It seems to originate from this man, a reporter in PA

https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324226168384606208

[Hindsight was 2020]

A reminder that even if there is only 120k left in philly
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324250532106637312

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm  back!!

Going into mom mode.  Everybody: play nice.  

[wbrocks67]

If Biden wins Michigan by 3% or higher, will Debbie Dingell take back her stupid comments on how Dems have flopped and failed and 'need to get better talking to working class men and women'?

[wbrocks67]

Is there any update from Arizona? Do we know where the outstanding votes are from?

Most are very Trump favorable Maricopa ballots, scattered amounts from random counties and I guess a tiny bit from Biden friendly Pima county

This is not true. Stop spreading false information. No wonder people have you on ignore.

Last night's batches were supposed to be more favorable for Trump. The batches coming forward appear to get more Indie-heavy. Biden won Indies in AZ, so, would seem to be a bit better for him.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324257077074698240

[andrewa]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1324319917190090753

Georgia based on NYT when Trump was 23000 ahead: counties to be completed, same trend,
Biden: Bibb + 2500 on Trump, Chatam +2000, Richmond + 3500, Clayton + 10000, Fulton + 8000, Douglas + 1000, Cobb + 2000, Rockdale + 2000, Muscogee + 1900

Considering some Trump counties not closed yet, could be at the end Biden +5000/+10000 ?

[SN2903]

But why is it November 5th and we are all still talking about this? Most of you guys said it would be a landslide and Trump had no chance? You said I was crazy for thinking it was even competitive. Are you guys now trying to convince yourselves that Trump didn't win?

[wbrocks67]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

Well who was reporting the 450K? It's possible people didn't have the correct figures. I'm going directly off of the DOS website/Boockvar who had it about 750K left at 10pm last night. The figure was 6.2M counted in PA at that point, and now it's 6.35M, so that would mean 600K left have to be *counted* as of yet it would appear. But it's possible that many of them have been *processed* but not *counted* so maybe thats where people are getting other totals from

Either way, Philly has *at least* 120K outstanding and that would nearly narrow the margin alone for Biden, since they're going like 90-10 for him.

It seems to originate from this man, a reporter in PA

https://twitter.com/julianrouth/status/1324226168384606208

He's not 100% correct. Technically Allegheny is sort of done, but they still have ~35K ballots left, but it appears they aren't adding them until Friday

https://twitter.com/MauraBarrettNBC/status/1324318802058895361

[SN2903]

If Biden wins Michigan by 3% or higher, will Debbie Dingell take back her stupid comments on how Dems have flopped and failed and 'need to get better talking to working class men and women'?

DUDE you literally said it wouldn't be close for months. Why should anyone care what you think?

[Thomas D]

I'm  back!!

Welcome

[philly09]

Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

[DaleCooper]

Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Where'd he say that? Not on Twitter

[philly09]

Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Where'd he say that? Not on Twitter

MSNBC just now.

[SN2903]

Trump will win. Arizona is going in his favor. GA dems don't have enough votes. Same in PA. If it goes to a legal challenge he will win.

[wbrocks67]

But why is it November 5th and we are all still talking about this? Most of you guys said it would be a landslide and Trump had no chance? You said I was crazy for thinking it was even competitive. Are you guys now trying to convince yourselves that Trump didn't win?

I mean, once all the votes are counted, it's quite possible Biden has over 300K EVs, so that not be competitive

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wasserman still being a Biden win, due to Trump underperforming his margins, and Biden doing well in rural counties like Bethlehem where he is leading by 0.4(Trump won it 2016).  He spoke to a PA GOP spokesman who said Trump "is in deep trouble".

Bethlehem, PA? That's Lehigh and Northampton counties.  

I do try to take these "I spoke to [blank]" accounts with a grain of salt.  These folks, whoever they are, might not have any more info than the rest of us.