2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

Total number LEFT or total number COUNTED. If it’s the latter, I feel quite good about it.

Present count total for Gallego: ~172k
Present count total for Stanton: ~293k
Present count total for Lesko: ~357k
Present count total for Biggs: ~368k

I'm okay with this. Remember, Gallego's district is very immigrant-heavy so it never has as many total votes.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324192510651043840

[TopShelfGoal]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him to Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324185613394956288

A 3 point swing is terrific?

He needs a 0.7 point swing.

Never mind how dominant he was in the Philly burns.

You know, math.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

Stop the presses. :eyeroll:

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324185613394956288

A 3 point swing is terrific?

When you consider that Biden only needed to topple Trump's plurality of 44,000 votes it is very terrific. Reducing the margin in red areas was a critical part of Biden winning this race.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

What a nutjob

[Roronoa D. Law]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

Total number LEFT or total number COUNTED. If it’s the latter, I feel quite good about it.

Present count total for Gallego: ~172k
Present count total for Stanton: ~293k
Present count total for Lesko: ~357k
Present count total for Biggs: ~368k

I'm okay with this. Remember, Gallego's district is very immigrant-heavy so it never has as many total votes.

Which is another problem Democrats need to solve. Stanton's and Gallego's district are on the overpopulated side.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Side-topic people haven't brought up much: Anyone else noticing a lot of anger from Republicans/Far-Right against the LP? Jo Jorgensen ended up playing a pretty important role in several states lmao.

GOP vs. LP - Gonna be fun to watch.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324192510651043840

GA is really just coming through across the board, meeting/exceeding in a way no other state is except perhaps Minnesota and Colorado.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

What a nutjob

Yeah, Gosar is one of the more nuts people in Congress, as in I think he might actually have mental issues (not simply that he has crazy positions and says insane things, which he indeed does).

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324191080125026311

The county Democratic party here was significantly better organized than I have seen in any election I can remember. Which, granted, isn't saying that much considering how terrible they have been historically.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Wildman_AZ/status/1324189563649077249?s=20

What a nutjob

Yeah, Gosar is one of the more nuts people in Congress, as in I think he might actually have mental issues (not simply that he has crazy positions and says insane things, which he also does).

His siblings have cut ads for his opponents in two cycles. That tells you a lot about what kind of person he is.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump now up 167K in PA.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trump now up 167K in PA.

K ya Biden’s winning knock on wood

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324187070198353920

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324190172993318913

Not sure who this is, but FWIW.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

[Ancestral Republican]

Side-topic people haven't brought up much: Anyone else noticing a lot of anger from Republicans/Far-Right against the LP? Jo Jorgensen ended up playing a pretty important role in several states lmao.

GOP vs. LP - Gonna be fun to watch.

I have it on good authority that Jorgensen is a Chinese agent.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Side-topic people haven't brought up much: Anyone else noticing a lot of anger from Republicans/Far-Right against the LP? Jo Jorgensen ended up playing a pretty important role in several states lmao.

GOP vs. LP - Gonna be fun to watch.

Maaybe. Looks like Biden will be over 50% in Pennsylvania and Michigan. We'll have to see about AZ but I'm not sure the 3rd party vote changed anything.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

Ron Johnson too at this point

Biggest drag for the GOP has to be Murkowski and Romney, but they are both from interesting states

[Canis]

Side-topic people haven't brought up much: Anyone else noticing a lot of anger from Republicans/Far-Right against the LP? Jo Jorgensen ended up playing a pretty important role in several states lmao.

GOP vs. LP - Gonna be fun to watch.

Yeah it reminds me of all the democratic hate on Jill Stein in 2016 I think the hate in both instances is wrong if someone who normally votes for your party goes and votes third party its your fault for running a crappy campaign and not appealing to them lmao if you want to get rid of the spoiler effect implement ranked choice voting haha its a shame that it failed in MA and is looking like it wont make it in AK

[Calthrina950]

Manchin haters are ridiculous. He is the Democratic MVP for how much he votes with the party. You can't compare him Tammy Duckworth, you have to compare him to what his replacement would be in WV. When you game that out, he probably votes 40-50% more Democratic than his hypothetical replacement would. No other Democratic senator provides that value (maybe Tester could come close).

I really should make a Senator WAR chart. I’m pretty sure Manchin and Tester are obvious, but Baldwin and especially Brown are amazing too.
On the GOP side, Collins and Toomey definitely top the list.
Worst Dem is almost certainly Feinstein but Sinema may officially be below replacement if Arizona is trending as quick as it looks.

The results this year in West Virginia and Montana, with Democrats losing every single statewide race in both states, makes the victories of Manchin and Tester in 2018 even more impressive.