2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[LabourJersey]

If that's the case then Biden should win Georgia

What are the chances that Ossoff is carried across the finish line?

If Biden wins Georgia then Perdue's seat is going to a runoff

I think this may actually work in favor for the Democrats. Having Ossoff & Warnock running together to win control of the Senate for the Democrats and having almost two months to campaign is a big deal. Also new voters can register by December 7th to vote in the Runoff Elections. It seems like Sleepy Joe has awakened. LOL

Also trying to figure out who would be excited about going to the polls to vote Perdue/Loeffler

Loeffler especially. She's totally alienated moderates.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

Isn't it funny that Trump wins these three states by less than Biden (even if Biden's margins are small) and suddenly they look unwinnable for Democrats. Then a Democrat does win them (or will, in the case of Pennsylvania) and suddenly they're still unwinnable? Republicans don't subscribe to this logic.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

I think you still make heavy investment in the upper midwest. Biden has strong ties to PA and will want to have a "hometown" effect in 2024. Out of WI/MI/PA, I think holding on to PA in 2024 is vital.

[Bootes Void]

Nevada probably isnt a lock, and if hispanics swing right like they did this election you are going to do multiple paths to victory

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The first thing Biden needs to do as president is impose sanctions on the R*ssia. I don't care for what or why, just impose sanctions.

Sh*t like this (spending so much time and energy on being outraged by Trump's personality and stuff like Russiagate than on putting forward an alternative vision for the country) is one reason for why your party is seeing these disappointing results.

Number one, the President of the United States cannot be unhinged with a horrible temper. Second, Russia has deliberately interfered in our affairs and that is a matter of national security. Only the extreme right and the extreme left have any love for Russia.

That's what I don't get... Why? The Far-Right because Putin is a Fascist and the Far-Left because of their love for Stalin's Soviet Union? I don't get the Russian love.

The far right is basically a combination of evangelicals loving Putin’s homophobia and Russians reporting right wing authoritarianism across the globe, meanwhile, there is a tendency for some on the ‘left’ to support anything anti-American on principle, see Tulsi Gabbard and her love affair with Indian genocidaires.

[Inmate Trump]

Does it seem a big problem that the remaining states are taking so long to count?  I feel like the longer it drags out the more chance of Trump trying something stupid/inciting violence.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/StackMaster___/status/1324106575339028481?s=20

LMAO! I stand with you, sir!

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

Isn't it funny that Trump wins these three states by less than Biden (even if Biden's margins are small) and suddenly they look unwinnable for Democrats. Then a Democrat does win them (or will, in the case of Pennsylvania) and suddenly they're still unwinnable? Republicans don't subscribe to this logic.

This is rooted in the current EC-advantage for Republicans; although this could quickly change as we saw from 2012 to 2016.

[Sadader]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

Yes, Georgia flipping in a Dem <5 environment is impressive for Biden.

Imagine if it had actually been Dem +10.

We would have gotten FL and N.C. that’s about it.

Looks like Texas would've been gained.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896
Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

Implies that National Gold Standard Pollsters were wrong by 5-7 points. Ugh.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This election in many ways feels very similar to KY 2019, where despite Trump and Bevin going down the GOP seemingly did pretty well across the board.

Also it seems like McConnell is treating Trump now the same way the KY GOP Legislature treated Bevin after his defeat

Can you explain, not familiar with what happened afterwards when Bevin lost.

Bevin wanted to challenge the results and the GOP legislature I believe said no

[pppolitics]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

WI/MI/PA are still going to be completely winnable for Democrats going forward. Not only that, we need these states for their Senate seats in addition to electoral paths. It would be dumb for Democrats to look past them when... they literally just won them (minus PA at this hour)

I said "the path to victory", that is, the path to 270 EV.

I didn't say that Democrats are not going to try to win them, but that they won't be needed for 270 EV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Even though I want Biden to win NC, it would kind of ruin the clean map ngl.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

Wow. Really?
By that much?

[psychprofessor]

Nevada probably isnt a lock, and if hispanics swing right like they did this election you are going to do multiple paths to victory

I'm wondering what a more "traditional" business / religious centric R would do with Hispanics and WWC. Trump's unique racial appeals seemed to work with men. Would a religious R (like Cruz) or a traditional R (like Hogan or Baker) have the same appeal?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Nah. I think blue GA without blue FL looks weird.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

WI/MI/PA are still going to be completely winnable for Democrats going forward. Not only that, we need these states for their Senate seats in addition to electoral paths. It would be dumb for Democrats to look past them when... they literally just won them (minus PA at this hour)

I said "the path to victory", that is, the path to 270 EV.

I didn't say that Democrats are not going to try to win them, but that they won't be needed for 270 EV.

The more options the better.


Dems really need to try to get TX to vote to the left of the nation, or at least even with the nation, since that would do a great deal of harm to the Rs edge in the EC

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

Wow. Really?
By that much?

There's a pretty significant chunk of votes out.  You have to remember that most of these are Democrats even in Republican counties.  I've seen a number of counties flip from red to blue as soon as the early vote gets inputted.  

[philly09]

CNN saying that Trump's team is anxious about GA right now, and that "they did not see this coming".

[dunceDude]

I think you still make heavy investment in the upper midwest. Biden has strong ties to PA and will want to have a "hometown" effect in 2024. Out of WI/MI/PA, I think holding on to PA in 2024 is vital.

Biden will not be the nominee in 2024—but that's a discussion I don't want to have anytime soon.

[pppolitics]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

Isn't it funny that Trump wins these three states by less than Biden (even if Biden's margins are small) and suddenly they look unwinnable for Democrats. Then a Democrat does win them (or will, in the case of Pennsylvania) and suddenly they're still unwinnable? Republicans don't subscribe to this logic.

I never said that they are unwinnable.

I just said that the easier path to 270 EV may be through NV/AZ/GA/NC