2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Great summary and post, kudos.

YW, we gotta keep our heads on straight here.  Stick with hard numbers and provable stuff.  Don't overreact to trolling and misinformation from the Trump campaign, but I'm also not buying anything from mainstream pundits or journalists unless they've got hard numbers to back them up.  The last 16 hours has just been an exhausting flurry of "M votes remaining in X county, with N% expected to go for Biden; P% are mail-in and Q% are early-vote" and such reports have frequently been wrong.

An easier way is to simply stick to experts who know their stuff. I have been basically just reading what Nates have to say the whole day. And last 12 hours or so, it was basically ~Likely Biden if nothing strange happens. And, indeed, nothing strange happened apart from some weird "stuff" about AZ.

[Alben Barkley]

What if Biden gets the Sabato map?

He’d have to win NC which is not looking very likely but it’s funny that it’s not impossible. Unbelievably, their galaxy brain strategy of “Florida should be Lean D, but precisely because we think that and are always wrong about Florida, we’re calling it Lean R” seems to have paid off.

[ObamaMichael]

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

NUT

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

[Dr. Arch]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Not nearly as bad as Feingold in 2016. That was the worst.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

NUT

Sugar....

[TopShelfGoal]

John James looking like he's going down in MI pleases me no end. I don't hate all Republicans and I'm not black but I could never trust a man who doesn't have solidarity with his own people.

[wbrocks67]

Biden nearly at 50% in Michigan. +1.3% lead now.

Biden 2,684,200 (49.9%)
Trump 2,617,062 (48.6%)

Peters up 0.21% on James, with a +11K lead.

[Canis]

with MI Called for Biden by many networks Trump's chances go from 3% to 2% on five thirty eight
Only states left to Call are NV PA NC GA and AK If I had rate them id say at this point  
Safe Trump
AK
Tilt Trump
NC
Tilt Biden
GA PA
Likely Biden
NV
If Biden gets one more state I'm pounding the gavel he's got this

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Michigan is a sigh of relief.

But PA is still an unknown, as is Nevada and Arizona (neither are a guarantee just yet).

NV is all Biden needs, and if results are coming tonight from mail-ins and that's majority Biden; it's his.  Biden wins with 270.  PA won't matter.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What’s with all the posts by what seems like new accounts who do nothing but call John James an Uncle Tom?

[Silent Hunter]

I thought NV was coming tomorrow?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The remaining states from most likely to least likely for a Trump win, according to Nate Silver:

NC (Likely Trump)
GA (Tossup)
PA (Lean Biden)
AZ (Likely Biden)
NV (Likely Biden)
MI (Likely Biden)
WI (Won by Biden in some networks.

[Astatine]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

Now imagine how much worse it would've gotten if the election for Angie Craig's seat was rescheduled as special election to February. Might have lost that one too.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

People really were quite bearish on both Cunningham and Finkenauer for much of the cycle, only to get their hopes up around the final stretch.

[Storr]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

Kalamazoo Joe!

[Niemeyerite]

OMG I called it! Joseph Robinette Biden jr., 46th President of the United States of America.

[wbrocks67]

When the hell is GA supposed to keep counting?

[ProgressiveModerate]

When the hell is GA supposed to keep counting?

I think we're supposed to get a batch of new votes at 6:00

[ultraviolet]

John James looking like he's going down in MI pleases me no end. I don't hate all Republicans and I'm not black but I could never trust a man who doesn't have solidarity with his own people.

I hate John James too but you’ve said some... questionable stuff today

[ProgressiveModerate]

OMG I called it! Joseph Robinette Biden jr., 46th President of the United States of America.

It's not over till it's officially over

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC projects a Dem win in GA-06.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I thought NV was coming tomorrow?

https://twitter.com/emmersbrown/status/1324094738337878018?s=20

[Crumpets]

Not sure if this has already been posted (about 45 minutes old), but:

https://twitter.com/8NewsNow/status/1324093130103205888

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly the Sabato map - NC and a second chance to get a senate majority wouldn't be a particularly bad result. I think the sensational states like FL and TX led people to the conclusion this was going to be a good night for Trump, and while it's better than polls expected for Trump, it seems like the dominoes are starting to fall for Biden 1 by 1